NFL: Favorites Dominate Week 9/Week 10 Preview

We are halfway through the regular season, and some definite trends have emerged.

Week 9 Recap

• Bengals Are Hot – The O has been on fire since the 2nd half of the BAL game, and that continued in Madrid as QB Joe Burrow hit WR JaMarr Chase for 155 yards and a TD plus another TD to WR Tee Higgins as the Bengals rolled the Falcons, 34-17.
• Broncos Win Another One – Looking at the metrics, it is incredible, but the Broncos made an amazing INT at a critical time to stave off the threat from CAR in their 26-21 win.
• Saints Need OT to Win – It was not a pretty day, as both teams only kicked FGs until deep into the 4th Quarter at 6-6. Then, some big plays by CLE forced OT. The Saints scored a TD in their OT possession, but CLE’s TE Harold Fanin made the play of the game with the stiff arm and run after catch for a TD – CLE went for 2 and missed to lose, 23-22.
• Packers Destroy NE – QB Jordan Love leads the league in passing yards, and his amazing WR duo of Christian Watson and Matthew Golden combined for 335 yards and 2 TDs as Love threw for 372 and 3 TDs – the Pack also forced 3 Drake Maye INTs for the easy, 45-27 win.
• Bears Outlast the Bucs – The first 15 minutes, the Bears and QB Caleb Williams was on fire with 2 TD drives and looked like a Super Bowl team. However, 4 INTs and a fumble later, the Bucs tied the game inside of 2 minutes at 24-24 only to have the Bears get one drive together to win the game at the gun, 27-24.
• Bills Best the MIN D – The Vikings have an incredible D, but you can’t be on the field for over 40 minutes on D and win. The Bills were able to wear down the tough D and win on MNF easily, 23-6.

No predictions for the week – apologies for the missed week.

Predictions Through 9 Weeks (Half the Regular Season)

Total games picked game by game from the preseason is 58.09% – still really solid despite all the injuries and changes. I’ve picked only 3 Teams records correctly – DET (6-2), MIA (1-7) and KC (6-2).

Under-Performers – SEA 5-4 (8-1 predicted), LAR 5-4 (8-1), TB 3-6 (6-3), HOU 3-5 (6-2), PHI 2-7 (7-2), LAC 0-8 (3-5).

Over-Performers – CLE 5-4 (0-9 predicted), LVR 4-5 (1-8), MIN 6-2 (3-5), AZ 3-6 (0-9).

Fantasy Football – Trade Targets Continued

Waiver Wire is still a big part of your season with injuries to GB RB Josh Jacobs, LAR WR Puka Nacua and BAL QB Lamar Jackson, but who is out there in your league? It is the right time to make a trade.

Sell High Candidates

• NYJ RBs Breece Hall and Braelon Allen – the Jets are in sell mode now, and I expect HC Aaron Glenn to get fired soon. It appears they are not going to trade either one of these backs, and they have the 7th toughest schedule remaining.
• GB WRs Christian Watson and Matthew Golden – both have been on a tear, so it is hard to part with them for sure, but they have the 2nd hardest remaining schedule. If you have surplus at WR, it is time to get a king’s ransom.
• CHI RB D’Andre Swift – I would have wrote this last week, but sorry, I was busy. Swift has been great, but ran into a tough D in Tampa – he gets 5 more tough matchups down the stretch. If in need, you can still get a good price for Swift.

Buy Low Candidates

• HOU WR – Nico Collins had a good game, so he may not be a buy low anymore, but he is the WR1 amongst a crowded room – the schedule is 28th remaining.
• DEN QB Bo Nix – I know, I hate him, too, but his remaining schedule is really good – 31st with matchups against the Bills, Chargers, Fins, Jets and Raiders – all poor against the pass.
• NO WR Jordyn Tyson – his debut was not great with a fumble, but he will come on. NO has the 25th hardest schedule, and the Saints can’t run the ball – Worth a cheap price to pick up.

Wegs Index Through Week 9

1. Jags 6-2 (5.17 Index) – The Jags are taking advantage of a really easy schedule, but they are primed for the 1 Seed plus made some huge moves to solidify that D with S Jesse Bates and DT Jordan Davis.
2. 49ers 7-1 (5.50) – The SF team despite major injuries to their WR corps, keep winning. That O is playing really well and the D is much better than expected.
3. Chiefs 6-2 (6.00) – The Chiefs crush poor competition, and have failed in bigger spots. So, beware of this rating.
4. Bills 6-1 (8.83) – Very impressive game against MIN – if the D plays that well, then they will win the Super Bowl.
5. Steelers 6-2 (9.33) – The Steelers are coming off their Bye and a resounding win over CLE. Let’s see if they can keep it up.
6. Bears 7-2 (9.83) – The Bears are much better on D with Simmons, and if Caleb doesn’t give the ball away, then they can be #1 in this Index.
7. Packers 6-3 (10.00) – In the basement of the mighty NFC North, the Pack have been so great in big spots this year – killing the Pats.

Key Matchups in Week 10

Bye: Bears, Broncos, Bucs, Eagles

• Patriots vs. Lions (-3, 51.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/15 at 8:30 AM Central (Munich) on NFL Network – The Pats got punked at home versus GB, and the Lions O can be even better. I think the Pats will play better, but the Lions left immediately to go to Munich, which I love. DET wins, Covers -3, Total Over 51.5.
• Chiefs at Falcons (+3.5, 45.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/15 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – The Chiefs have played very well against inferior teams, but the Falcons are in a must win situation now. ATL did trade Bates, which is a little confusing for a team still competing for a division. I do not love the matchup for the Chiefs, so I think KC wins, but ATL Covers +3.5, Total Under 45.5.
• Texans at Browns (+4.5, 39.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/15 at 12 Noon Central on FOX – HOU has seemed to have found their Offense, and the D may finally start balling. The Browns are a team that has been winning with smoke and mirrors, but with back-to-back losses, maybe they are coming back to the pack. I like HOU to won, Cover -4.5, Total Over 39.5 – CLE’s D is not as good as it seems.
• Vikings at Packers (-5.5, 40.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/15 at 12 Noon Central on FOX – The Vikings D is so good, but the Packers have a way to beat this team deep. In Week 1, the Pack were up in the 4th only to get smoked in that quarter. Perhaps, there can be a repeat, but to me, Green Bay is playing both phases better. MIN’s O is not good, and the opener was GB -3.5 now to -5.5 after that MNF performance. GB to win, MIN to Cover +5.5 (too far – up to -4 I’m ok with GB), Total Under 40.5. Maybe MIN gets a QB at the deadline.
• Steelers at Bengals (-3.5, 48.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/15 at 7:20 PM Central on NBC – The Steelers took out the Bengals in Pittsburgh, and even with the Bye, I think CIN will be the team to beat here. Yes, the no Bye from overseas has not been great for most teams, but I think the Bengals will be looking for revenge and an outright lead in the AFC North. CIN wins, CIN Covers -3.5, Total Over 48.5.

Let’s keep the good times going. Veterans – thank you for your service.

Wegs