NFL: More Surprises in Week 7/Week 8 Preview

After 7 Weeks, we only have one undefeated and one winless team.

Week 7 Recap

• Bears Got Past Pats – The Bears were really the better team all night, but after a blown last second in the first half and a dicey decision to kick a career long FG by Cairo Santos – CHI won 30-24 on TNF.
• Falcons Gave SF 1st Loss – SF, despite all the injuries, had been able to beat opponents through Week 6. In this one, the 49ers took the lead early in the 2nd Quarter, 14-3. However, the Falcons flipped the game scoring 23 straight points as QB Michael Penix threw for 3 TDs. ATL won, 29-20 in the end.
• Tale of 2 Halves – The Ravens in back to back games have started quickly – 10-0 in CLE and 13-0 vs. CIN at the half. Well, the Bengals made the adjustments and throttled BAL 35-13 – as the Ravens fail to score in 2nd half back to back games. BAL has outscored opponents +65 in the first half, but -70 in the second half. CIN QB Joe Burrow threw for 248 yards and 4 TDs in the 2nd half.
• Bucs Destroy CAR – Most would think that TB QB Baker Mayfield returning may have been the reason for the 43-13 explosion for the Bucs, but he only completed 7 passes for 64 yards – it was the running game – 258 yards and 3 rushing TDs – TB also got a defensive TD and a returned 2 Pt Conversion.
• Giants Stun the Texans – HOU was a -10.5 favorite at home, but between NYG QB JJ McCarthy’s clean game and 188 yards rushing and 4 rushing TDs – the great Texans’ D was eviscerated in this 27-21 OT win for NY.
• Fins Win!! – They have been a try-hard team all season without a lot of talent, but give HC Jeff Hafley credit – his team has never quit. Out of the bye – MIA jumped out to a 21-7 win at halftime, and they were able to hold off the Jets in the 28-25 win.
• Lions Outkick GB – It was not the laser lightshow we expected, but it was a competitive game. In my view, the Lions blew chances inside the Red Zone on a couple of occasions, and HC Dan Campbell in the 4th Quarter while the game was tied at 17-17 went for a 4th down at their own 24 yard line – stuffed. Luckily, GB missed a 2nd FG on the night opening the door for the GW FG as time expired in the Lions’ 20-17 win.
• Seahawks Back? – The Chiefs may have been 5-0 entering into Sunday, but the Seahawks looked like the better team all night. The main story was the SEA D limiting the NFL leading rusher – KC’s Kenneth Walker III to 36 yards on 14 carries (2.6 YPC). SEA’s QB Sam Darnold tried to give the game away with a bad INT late in the first in the end zone, but SEA did not allow the Chiefs in the red zone in the 20-3 win.

Predictions: S/U 3-2, ATS 3-1-1, Totals 2-3 – still struggling in Totals, but back on track on the sides and bets.

Fantasy Football – Waiver Wire and Trade Targets

Key Injuries: RB Christian McCaffery and Byes for SF, HOU, NYG and NO – now the fire sale in IND – Nelson and Buckner – Colts may be tanking from this point on.

Waiver Wire Targets

• QB Malik Willis, MIA (25% Rostered) – Finally, the Offense let Malik cook – he had more designed runs with 8 total carries for 37 yards and a TD plus 208 yards passing and a TD. He is a very viable Super Flex and a great bye week replacement next up at home versus NE.
• RB Kaelon Black, SF (60% Rostered) – He has been a contributor, but his usage will skyrocket if McCaffery needs to miss times after their Bye.
• WR KC Concepcion, CLE (50% Rostered) – The breakout finally happened for the rookie – 8 catches for 129 yards plus 3 carries for 23 yards – that was what we wanted on Draft Day.
• WR Jordyn Tyson, NO (60% Rostered) – The wait is almost over. He will be back after the NO bye in Week 8 – Tyson should do well in this Offense that can’t seem to run the ball.
• TE Greg Dulcich, MIA (8% Rostered) – Yes, that’s 2 Fins in one article, but 5 catches for 86 yards is nothing to sneeze at – he is the #2 target after Malik Washington for Willis.

Trade Targets

Now, is the time to look at the stretch run and making a trade to solidify your playoff run. The main determinant for a good trade target – schedule. Look at your target’s schedule – a guy who has underperformed, but will enter into a much easier stretch of schedule. Some teams to consider this for: Jags (32nd easiest schedule remaining), Texans (31st), Bucs (30th), Cowboys (29th), Colts (28th), Rams (27th), Arizona (26th), Commanders (25th) and Broncos (24th).

QBs to Target

• HOU CJ Stroud – He is on bye – coming off a dud of a game, so he could be a good target
• TB Baker Mayfield – again not a good Week 6, but his schedule is easy going forward
• DEN Bo Nix – I know he has been bad, but he used his legs to get you points this week and his remaining schedule looks good.

RBs to Target

• TB Bucky Irving – Coming off a great game may be tough, but he is a guy to add if you can
• JAC Bhushal Tuten – See that 32nd easiest schedule – that means a lot of leads to protect
• LAR Blake Corum – If you can’t get him off the wire, what about picking him up in a trade – just have a feeling his usage will shoot up
• AZ Jeremiyah Love – Can you please get healthy for my squad? If not, what about picking him up with this remaining schedule.

WRs to Target

• HOU Nico Collins – No better time to buy low with back-to-back terrible outings
• TB Emeka Egbuka – He needs to be monitored with health, but he should bounce back with this schedule
• AZ Michael Wilson – I trust that he will get more catches
• DEN Jaylen Waddle – At some point some DEN WR will pop off – Nix will play better as the schedule gets easier

TE to Target

• JAC Brandon Strange – He is a buy candidate given the schedule and that offense
• IND Tyler Warren – The Colts do have a bad vibe going on, and Warren has not been healthy. So, it may be worth a shot to grab him give the schedule
• LAR TEs – Hard to figure out this TE situation, but someone will emerge – this week was the 3rd TE Allen, but can someone emerge to be the guy? I think so – Parkinson makes the most sense to me, but maybe one more week to see

Wegs Index After Week 7

1. Chiefs 5-1 (7.33 Index) – The Chiefs lack of WRs showed up in SEA – so the formula to stop the O was shown – stop Walker and you stop the Chiefs.
2. 49ers 6-1 (7.50) – The loss at ATL was telling, as injuries caught up to SF with the Bye coming at the right time for them.
3. Jags 4-2 (8.17) – The Jags had their Bye at the right time and now they have the easiest remaining schedule.
4. Bears 5-2 (8.67) – Most people overlook the Bears, but the numbers are strong for them with a huge test in SEA on MNF.
5. Seahawks 4-3 (9.33) – The resounding victory over KC moved SEA up to #5 – TOs dictate the Seahawks’ performance.
6. Vikings 6-0 (9.50) – The Vikings D and TO Differential is carrying them, as their O is still really awful.
7. Bengals 4-2 (9.83) – The Bengals have confusing data – high points scored and low points allowed, but middle of the road yardage for and against.

You can see that the margins have slimmed with only a few points separating the Top 5 – Vikings and Bengals just outside of the Top 5.

Week 8 Key Matchups

Byes: 49ers, Giants, Saints, Texans

• Panthers at Packers (-3.5, 47.5 Total) – Thursday, 10/29 at 7:15 PM on Amazon – The Panthers laid an egg at home on Sunday, which was really concerning. The injury at OT may have lingering affects to the CAR Passing Game. I think the Panthers will play better, but the Packers are the better team to me. The spread is tricky in this one, but I think at -3.5 – that still seems like a GB lean. So, I think GB wins, Covers -3.5, Total Under 47.5 – the Packers’ D has been surprisingly good of late.
• Ravens at Bills (-3.5, 54.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/1 at 12 Noon on CBS – Bills are off the Bye, and maybe they have righted their defensive woes. The Ravens really need to figure out why their 2nd halves have been awful. QB Lamar Jackson returning is critical for BAL. I still think the Bills will win this game at home, even with Lamar. Unless RB Derek Henry can get going, the Bills have more to choose from on O than the Ravens. My numbers still make BAL better on a neutral field, so I’m going to split the baby here – Bills win, BAL covers +3.5, Total Over 54.5 (assuming Jackson plays, if he does not, then Under and expect the spread to go up to BUF -5.5).
• Vikings at Lions – (-3.5, 46 Total) – Sunday, 11/1 at 12 Noon on FOX – The battle for the NFC North continues in DET – the Lions host the Vikings this time. Look, it is kinda simple, MIN’s D is great, but they blitz so much, while the O is terrible. DET’s O is good – not great against the blitz, but their D is not so great. For MIN to win, the D has to force Goff into TOs with short fields to score TDs not FGs – DET will score 2-3 TDs in this game. MIN has 10 total TDs through 6 games – the lowest in almost 80 years in the NFL for a 6-0 team. The spread is eerily similar to the GB game – so, I think DET wins this game, MIN +3.5, Total Under 46.
• Chiefs at Broncos (+1.5, 41.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/1 at 3:25 PM Central on CBS – Huge game in the AFC West – with the Raiders falling back, it is a 2 team race, and DEN lost in the opener at KC. So, it is almost a must win for DEN. I really do not like how the KC O can’t stretch the field right now. Perhaps Rashee Rice returns to help, but if DEN slows the run, then it is only Kelce in the passing game. So, I think DEN wins this game, Covers +1.5, Total Over 41.5 – my numbers still have KC to be a bigger favorite, but the situational spot favors the Broncos.
• Bears at Seahawks (-3, 46.5 Total) – Monday, 11/2 at 7:15 PM Central on ESPN – A potential NFC Title Game matchup here back in SEA. The Bears have been a bit up and down despite their 5-2 record, and the last image of SEA crushing KC is fresh in everyone’s mind. So, it makes sense why SEA is favored. The Bears D is the main liability here, but if SEA turns the ball over then the Bears will win this game. The Bears are actually decent against the run, but probably do not have an answer for SEA’s #11. Still, I think CHI’s HC Ben Johnson will be able to manufacture some offense here. I’ll say SEA wins the game, but CHI +3 is probably right (even better as it goes up during the week to +3.5 or +4). Total Over 46.5. I think there will be more big plays. Should be fun.

Onward we go.

Wegs