NFL: Improbable Games in Week 5/Week 6 Preview

What can be said, any given Sunday or Thursday or Monday happens in the NFL.

Week 5 Recap

• Bucs Shocked DAL – A backup QB, 0-4 on a short week in DAL – no problem for the Bucs, as rookie QB Jalon Daniels played solid, and TB ran well against that terrible Cowboys’ D. Yep, DAL kinda blew their chances, but give Tampa credit in the 24-16 first win on the season.
• Jags Stole One in London – Normally, when you are down by 1 with 8 seconds and the team is kicking off to you, your probability of winning is infinitesimal. Leave it to the Eagles to give up a 53 yard kickoff return, leave one second and allow the Jags’ K Cam Little to nail a 57 yard FG to win, 19-17 at the gun. Literally unbelievable.
• Packers Punk Bears – The Bears were the favorite in Lambeau for the first time in a decade, and I had a feeling something wasn’t right. Still, the D got lit up for 31 points including multiple bombs by QB Jordan Love to WR Christian Watson. The Packers looked like the superior team all day in the 31-7 win.
• Patriots Roll Raiders – Maybe the first couple of weeks where QB Drake Maye sucked was just a warm up, as the last 2 weeks, he has righted the ship. This time he threw for 374 yards, and 4 TDs (0 INTs) in the routing of the Las Vegas, 45-17.
• A Tie – Meh – The Commanders led 27-13 inside of 8 minutes to go in the game, as QB Jayden Daniels looked healthy. Still, the WAS D allowed the Giants to drive the field twice to tie the game in regulation. Both teams blew opportunities to win the game in OT, but the Commanders committed the biggest gaffe as Daniels didn’t clock the ball as the time expired and they failed to get the GW FG attempt even close to attempted. NYG 27 WAS 27….
• Ravens Come Back Late – The Falcons were holding down the Ravens most of the game, and even looked good on both sides of the ball. Still, ATL failed to close the door on the Ravens and gave BAL the ball down, 23-15 with just over 2 minutes to go. Backup QB Snoop Huntley calmly took the Ravens down for a TD, then RB Derrick Henry ran in the 2pt play to tie the game and force OT. In OT, the depleted secondary and tired Falcons couldn’t stop BAL for a TD, and QB Michael Penix was knocked out at the end of regulation. That left Tua Tagvailoa to attempt a final drive ending in an INT. BAL won, 30-23 to move to 4-1.
• 49ers Stay Undefeated – I still have my doubts, but this SF team keeps winning. Yes, they cashed in on multiple SEA TOs (which is becoming a story), but even with the Seahawks led late, SF was able to tie and take the lead. The D held up in the end for a huge 32-29 win to move to 5-0 on the season.
• Instant Classic – We would be lucky to have this as our Super Bowl in February – Bills-Rams. The Bills ran all over the Rams D – QB Josh Allen had 89 yards rushing himself, but BUF was 2 of 7 on 3rd down in regulation, and the Rams forced 2 TOs including a fumble in OT – note the Bills scored to go up 7 in regulation with 1:33 left, but gave little resistance for the answering TD to force OT. After the fumble, the Rams settled for a 48 yard FG attempt and it was blocked by BUF with 4:11 left in OT. Allen had 2 big runs to set up BUF for a GW FG for the win, 37-24. Crazy game.

Predictions: S/U 2-3, ATS 0-5, Totals 4-1 – Just awful ATS this week – need to use the Index more which went 9-5-1 ATS.

Fantasy Football – Waiver Wire

More injuries and byes to worry about.

• QB Aaron Rodgers, PIT (38% Rostered) – It is not 2018, but Rodgers has been really playing well. He is not going to light it up like he used to, but 3 TDs in three straight games. He does face TB this week, but NO is an easy matchup then CLE again before his bye. Worth a pick up.
• RB Marshawn Lloyd, GB (58% Rostered) – If you are like me, you dropped him 2 weeks ago. Well, he finally broke out with 2 rushing TDs and was the clear #1 option with Kaleb Johnson getting garbage time carries. He gets DAL and DET next, so he is a viable starter until there is clarity with Josh Jacobs.
• RB Dameon Pierce, PHI (4% Rostered) – Shipley was injured in this game. Saquon is still week to week. So, Pierce against CAR and DAL could be juicy matchups for the last man standing.
• RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (15% Rostered) – Yes, his production was from one run, and he is in a 3-headed monster, but someone has to step up in this backfield. Vidal is more explosive than Hampton. Let’s see if he can follow this performance up.
• WR Kendrick Bourne, AZ (7% Rostered) – With Harrison being traded to HOU, someone will step up and it was Bourne this week. He caught 5 of 8 targets for 70 yards in Harrison’s absence. He will get plenty of volume with a team that will be in shootouts every single week.
• TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (23% Rostered) – 3 TDs in 2 games gets my notice. Rodgers loves his TEs, and if you need someone on this 4 team bye week, why not grab him.

Wegs Index Through Week 5

1. Chiefs 4-0 (5.17 Index) – Being on bye actually improved their rating after a crazy week.
2. 49ers 5-0 (5.67) – Defense still somehow hanging on despite 6 starters out.
3. Jags 4-1 (8.50) – A little lucky this week, but TO margin is helping (+5).
4. Seahawks 3-2 (8.50) – SEA needs to find a running game and stop turning the ball over (4 more against SF).
5. Ravens 4-1 (9.33) – Even with Lamar out, the O was solid, especially in the 4th Q and OT.
6. Vikings 5-0 (9.33) – The Best D by a lot in Points Against (12.8) and tops in TO Margin (+6).

Key Matchups in Week 6

Byes: Bengals, Dolphins, Lions, Vikings

• Seahawks at Broncos (+2.5, 40.5 Total) – Thursday, 10/15 at 7:15 PM Central on Amazon – The Champs have not been great so far. They have not played a complete game yet with Darnold under center. The Broncos have struggled even last week when HC Sean Payton calling plays. So, someone has to step up in this one to establish themselves. The short week definitely favors the home team at elevation. So, I’m not sure SEA should be favored by 3. Still, if Darnold can actually play without turning the ball over, then the Seahawks will win at margin. I’m going to trust them here to win, Cover -2.5, Over 40.5.
• Texans vs. Jags (-2.5, 42.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/18 at 8:30 AM Central on NFL Network – The Jags got lucky last week, but they will be fully acclimated to being in London. So, the Texans face a near must win situation in London where they haven’t played there since 2019. I do not like that advantage for the Jags in this one. I believe the Texans are better, but this is a terrible spot. So, the right team is favored here, but I’m going to go out on my shield with the Texans here. The Jags are really good, but their strength is against the run – with Nico Collins back and maybe Harrison helping, I think HOU can make big plays. The D will need to hold serve enough to shock the Jags. HOU wins, Covers +2.5, Over 42.5.
• Bears at Falcons (+3, 49.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/18 at 12 Noon Central on FOX – This is a tough one to pick. Will Caleb Williams play? Will Michael Penix play? Those 2 questions will determine a lot of the results – the line seems to indicate Williams will play. Penix took a shot, and even if he does play, he may be ineffective. The other issue was how hurt the D left SNF for ATL. We know the Bears D is leaky, but with Caleb, they should be able to score. I like CHI to win, Cover -3, Under 49.5 – especially if Tua starts for ATL.
• Panthers at Eagles (-1.5, 41.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/18 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – CAR comes in off a Bye, which is big. Eagles do not take the Bye after that embarrassment in London. Sirianni is still the coach, so to me, this is a must win for the Eagles or he will be fired. I think they bounce back. They played hard in London – although they were outgained by almost double the Jags. CAR’s D isn’t great though. So, the Eagles may be able to make hey. PHI wins, Covers -1.5, Over 41.5.
• Cowboys at Packers (-1, 52.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/18 at 7:20 PM Central on NBC – A tale of two teams headed in different directions – DAL played a terrible game at home on TNF vs. TB, while GB broke out at home against the Bears. So, what do we think will happen? Logic would tell you that GB can score on DAL. Can DAL score on GB? I think they can, so this will be a shootout like the Total indicates. The line seems wrong to me. GB should be favored by -2.5, so I’m in on GB playing well again to win, Cover -1, Over 52.5.

Let’s do this again.

Wegs