NFL: Defining Moments in Week 4/Week 5 Look Ahead

We are through the first 4 games, and even though it is a long season, trends are being established.

Week 4 Recap

• Browns Over 500 – Cleveland has not been good for some time. In fact, the Browns have had a record over .500 just once since 2020. No one expected anything out of this Cleveland team, but after a big 27-24 win over rival PIT on Thursday Night Football, the Browns sit on top of the AFC North along with the Ravens at 3-1 trending towards an over .500 season.
• Jags Establish Themselves – The Jags won the AFC South in 2025, and they are on their way again. This week, they took on the revamped Bengals in CIN, but QB Trevor Lawrence and company played a controlled game, never trailed in the game, and finished off the Bengals with a late game hold to win, 22-17. The Jags look the part of a division champ again.
• Rams Closed Out Eagles – The Eagles after their beatdown on MNF needed to bounce back, but with WR Devonta Smith out for a couple weeks, where was the Offense going to come. During the game, RB Saquon Barkley also came up lame leaving early. Still, the Eagles built a 20-10 lead at the half behind some timely plays. In the 4th Quarter, trailing by that same margin, QB Matthew Stafford led 2 touchdown drives in the last 7:26 to go in the game – the first on a 9 play, 98 yard drive, then after an Eagles 3 and out, a 10 play, 83 yard drive to take the lead with 3:07 to go. The Eagles had no answer giving the Rams the 24-20 road win to pull to .500 on the season.
• Cowboys Steal One – This was a must win for both DAL (1-2) and HOU (0-3), and the Texans started out like it mattered with a 16-6 lead at the half slowing that red hot Cowboys’ O. In the 2nd half, both offenses heated up as the teams combined for 21 points in the 3rd and another 21 in the 4th. Unfortunately for the Texans, 30-27 with 2:23 to play, DAL went on an 11 play, 74 yard drive converting on a critical 4th and 4 at their own 32 which seemed to break the Texans. HOU has not lost 3 games when leading in the last 2 minutes this season falling to 0-4. The Cowboys look to turn this victory into an NFC East title, as they tie for the lead with PHI and NYG.
• 49ers For Real – SF has not played the toughest schedule to get to 3-0, but DEN was in the AFC Championship game last year and beat the Rams on SNF last week. In this one, the Defenses dominated early the 3-3 score at the half. Finally, the 49ers broke the seal after a Broncos fumble on a punt return as WR Deebo Samuel cashed in for a TD, then after a FG answer by DEN, SF drove 9 plays for 79 yards for another TD. The Broncos would answer for a TD to WR Jaylen Waddle and a 2 point conversion to cut the lead to 17-14. Then, SF QB Brock Purdy hit TE George Kittle who took the pass to the house for a 56 yard TD and essential game ender, SF won, 24-14 and remains undefeated.
• Chiefs Outlast Raiders – The Chiefs are back, but no one expected the Raiders to be undefeated after three weeks. So, could Vegas shock the Chiefs? HC Klint Kubiak seemed to have a great game plan for the Chiefs – lots of play action and 3 TE sets to get the Chiefs off balanced. However, KC got some big runs from RB Kenneth Walker (22 carries, 177 yards, 2 TDs) and a great deep shot to WR Tyquan Thornton who was badly injured on the play set up Walker’s first TD, a fumble by the Raiders on the ensuing kickoff led to the 2nd TD for a 30-19 lead. The Raiders answered with a late TD, but were not able to get the onside kick. The Chiefs moved to 4-0 with the 30-27 win.
• Falcons Rock Saints – Yes, it was a big night in New Orleans celebrating the 20th anniversary of the Domecoming back Hurricane Katrina, but the Falcons did not care. ATL ran all over the Saints D – 205 yards rushing and 5 rushing TDs. The Saints on the other hand rushed for just 50 yards. ATL won going away, 45-24. Looks like Penix makes all the difference.

Predictions: S/U 3-2, ATS 3-2, Totals 2-3 – good on sides not totals this week

Season Predictions: Through Week 4, I’m at 60.94% for the game by game and 12 teams correct.

Surprising Teams: Raiders 3-1 (2-2 Prediction) and Vikings 4-0 (2-2)

Disappointing Teams: Bucs 0-4 (4-0 Prediction); Texans 3-1 (0-4); Chargers 0-4 (2-2)

Fantasy Football – Waiver Wire – Bye Week: Chiefs and Panthers

It feels like every week we have more and more huge injuries: QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (Ankle), QB Marcus Mariota, WAS (MCL), RB Saquon Barkley, PHI (Hamstring), WR Ja’marr Chase, CIN (Concussion), WR DJ Moore, BUF (Shoulder), WR Devonta Smith, PHI (Hamstring) and more.

• QB Tyler Huntley, BAL (1% Rostered) – There is no replacing Lamar Jackson, but Huntley stepping in will get back to back 20 plus ranked pass defenses in ATL and CLE. Note, Lamar has not been ruled out at ATL, but the line tells you he is unlikely to play.
• RB Will Shipley, PHI (2% Rostered) – The Jags are a tough matchup, but with Tank Bigsby out, someone has to run the ball for PHI. He is worth a shot.
• RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (1% Rostered) – With Jadarian Price out for some weeks, Zach will come back soon. Emanuel Wilson did look good – 64% Rostered, so he is an add until Zach comes back.
• WR Keon Coleman, BUF (12% Rostered) – With DJ Moore reaggravating his shoulder injury, Coleman stepped up and played great against NE. He will face the Rams, but he should get targets.
• WR Roman Wilson, PIT (7% Rostered) – Look, if Rodgers likes you, he likes you, and he likes Wilson who has gotten 6 targets 3 weeks in a row and 2 straight games with a TD. In PPR, if you need a guy to get you through, it could be Wilson.

Wegs Index After Week 4

1. Chiefs (4-0) – 5.50 Index – The Chiefs have played very well, despite giving up a lot more points than expected against the Colts and Raiders – TO Margin is helping a lot (+5). Note, I put KC ahead of the Bears due to record.
2. Bears (3-1) – 5.50 – Not being a homer, the Index speaks for itself. The last 3 games the D has been playing well limiting opponents to low yardage totals which shows up in the Index along with the most Yards Per Game (429 YPG).
3. 49ers (4-0) – 5.67 – The 49ers O has been driving their results, but against DEN they played good D. SF is 2nd in scoring (30.5 PPG).
4. Seahawks (3-1) – 6.50 – The Champs have not been the same on D so far this year from the eye test – WAS and LAC, but they are still 1st in Yards Against (246.8 YPG).
5. Ravens (3-1) – 8.83 – The Ravens will need to find other ways to score with Lamar out, as they have given up big points in the 2nd half so far this year.

Key Matchups in Week 5

• Eagles vs. Jags (-6.5, 42.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/11 at 8:30 AM Central on NFLN – Are the Eagles done? They certainly do seem mortally wounded with Smith and Saquon out for this game in London. The Jags are essentially going home in their London confines (they play there 2 games a year). The Jags stop the run, and are vulnerable against the pass. The Eagles don’t pass well. So, I like the Jags here for sure to win, but can the Eagles D step up for 60 minutes – they played well for a half against the Rams, but they seem like they can’t hold up over the full game, so Jags -6.5, Total Under 42.5.
• Bears at Packers (+3, 45.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/11 at 12 Noon Central on FOX – The Bears are not often favored in Lambeau, but there does seem to be a changing of the guard in the NFC North. The Packers definitely look broken, despite the 2-2 record. The Offense is not running the ball well, and the D is just not effective. Can the Bears continue to play well even if Caleb Williams does not play? Backup QB Tyson Bagent was good in the start versus the Jets, but the Jets could not get off the field on 3rd down. That will be the question, can the Bears run the ball like they did at Soldier Field? I think they will, but I am reluctant to lay points on the road in division – if this gets over -3, then GB for sure. I liked the -2.5 at open over the -3. Still have to pick. Bears win, Bears Cover -3, Total Under 45.5.
• Raiders at Patriots (-3.5, 45.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/11 at 12 Noon on CBS – The Patriots were in a near must win situation at BUF and came through (despite more Drake Maye TOs). Maybe they found themselves. The Raiders are coming off an emotional loss versus the Chiefs. I think that may sting a bit, but I do think the line is not right. The Raiders O has been really good this season, and the O Line travels. So, NE wins, LVR +3.5, Total Over 45.5.
• 49ers at Seahawks (-3, 47 Total) – Sunday, 10/11 at 3:25 PM Central on FOX – A battle for the top of the NFC West Part 1 – these teams split in the regular season last year – SF actually won in SEA in Week 1 in 2025. My fear here is that SF’s injuries will show up over time. They got that tough win over DEN, but it was at home, and unlike DEN, SEA has been scoring points in the 1st half. So, I think the line is right here maybe a little value to SF at the +3. However, I think SEA will play up for this game. SEA wins, SEA -3, Total Over 47.
• Bills at Rams (-2.5, 54.5 Total) – Monday, 10/12 at 7:15 PM Central on ABC/ESPN – We have a potential Super Bowl matchup in this one. The Rams got a big win over PHI who had their number. In this game, BUF will need to figure out their run D or they will get run out of LA. BUF can certainly score with the Rams, but the Rams D is much better than BUF’s. Plus, is Josh Allen hurt? He doesn’t seem to be running as much. So, I’m all in on the Rams in this spot – they have been on the road for 2 weeks, while BUF has to cross the country. Rams win, Cover -2.5, Unde 54.5.

We are in it now.

Wegs