NFL: Great Theater in Week 3/Week 4 Look Ahead

Grab your popcorn every single week in the NFL. So fun.

Week 3 Recap

• Falcons Pummel the Pack: After looking putrid in the first two weeks, with QB Michael Penix back, the Falcons ran and threw all over the Packers in Lambeau!! RB Bijan Robinson – 194 yards rushing, 19 yards receiving and 2 TDs; WR Drake London – 9 catches, 194 yards all leading to the 35-14 win on TNF.
• Jags Dominated NE: This one was not close, the Jags after dropping a game at DEN turned around and showed the Patriots how to score – not a stellar box score from the Jags as QB Trevor Lawrence threw for 182 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT. The story has been the poor start by NE QB Drake Maye – 14 for 25 for 199 yards, 2 INTs and a fumble, where he literally wasn’t touched dropping the ball behind him. The Patriots are not at the same level as 2025, and this 35-6 loss leaves some questions.
• Steelers Flipped the Script: The Bengals looked primed for a great season and may still have it, but on Sunday, it was an Aaron Rodgers throwback game. Rodgers threw for 292 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT in this 30-27 win. The Bengals D gave up 411 yards to a Steelers O that struggled the first 2 weeks.
• Commanders Shocked the Champs: No Jayden Daniels, no problem, as QB Marcus Mariota turned back the clock with 183 yards, 3 TDs, but the big play was SEA’s QB Sam Darnold threw a pick 6 that put them down 2 scores with 3:57 left in the 4th Quarter. Despite the SEA TD, the WAS O ran out the clock on the vaunted SEA D getting the win, 33-31 snapping SEA’s 12 game win streak since last season.
• Ravens At The Gun: What a game to show the people of Brazil! The Ravens and Cowboys put on a show combining for 793 total yards and 13 points scored in the last 1:30 of the game. The Ravens scored a TD with 1:30 left to take a 31-28 lead, but then DAL answered with a quick drive to get to the BAL 2 with just 23 seconds on a Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens. However, they were held to a FG with 10 seconds to play to tie the game, 31-31. The Cowboys kicked the ball into the end zone, so BAL started at their own 35 – Lamar hit WR Zay Flowers for 27 yards and got a timeout with just one tick remaining. K Tyler Loop nailed the 56 yard FG to win it 34-31.
• Broncos Do It Again: Is it the thin air? Is it the crowd? Or some kind of magic? The Rams dominated the Broncos in the first half leading 16-0. DEN had 62 yards of Offense in the first, and if not for the Broncos’ D holding the Rams to FGs in the red zone twice, then this could have been out of hand. In the 2nd half, though, on their 2nd drive after a good punt return, QB Bo Nix hit WR Pat Bryant for a TD and they converted the 2 point conversion. Another Rams punt led to another DEN drive to tie the game at the end of the 3rd Quarter, 16-16. After a Nix INT, the Rams did nothing with it. Later the Rams went up by a FG, but on the next Rams possession – S Talanoa Hufanga took an INT to the house, DEN led 23-19. Rams’ QB Matthew Stafford would answer with back to back bombs to WR Konata Mumpfield to take the lead back. The Broncos would answer on a drive in the red zone with a Bo Nix sneak, but they left enough time for Stafford. On the Rams last drive, Stafford would take them to the DEN 14 yard line when the D finally held for the 30-26 win.
• Bears Throttle Eagles – The Bears came out swinging in this one. 3rd string QB Case Keenum played well getting the ball out early hitting 7 receivers and taking the lead into halftime 10-7 (after a last second QB sneak by Jalen Hurts). The second half was worse for the Eagles who did virtually nothing on their first 4 drives while the Bears scored 2 more TDs including a QB sneak from Keenum to open the game up – 27-7 final.

Predictions: S/U 2-3, ATS 3-1-1, Totals 3-2 – Mixed straight up, but good betting week.

Fantasy Football

More injuries out there with QB Baker Mayfield, RB Devon Achane, RB Travis Etienne, RB Breece Hall, WR Justin Jefferson, WR Mike Evans, and WR Jalen Coker. Time to hit the waiver wire.

• QB Michael Penix, ATL (18% Rostered) – He is back, and he did what he should do – get the ball to Drake London. His numbers were not incredible, but he has the keys to a Ferrari in his hand. He is a must add.
• QB Deshaun Watson, CLE (29% Rostered) – What is this 2021? Watson does seem to be secure for now as the starter, and he has weapons. It seems like the HC is behind him, and with back to back wins, they should. If you lost Baker, you could do worse.
• RB Alvin Kamara, NO (65% Rostered) – He is not what he once was, but he will get plenty of work now that Etienne is on the shelf. Kendre Miller should also be picked up in deeper leagues.
• RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (49% Rostered) – With Breece Hall week to week, Allen will finally get some run and faces a weak Bears’ Run D in Week 4.
• RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (1% Rostered) – With Achane out for the year, the backfield is wide open. Ollie Gordon got the run after he left, but Wright won the backup job in camp. So, I would gamble on Wright over Gordon for the rest of the season.
• WR Jordan Addison, MIN (78% Rostered) – In shallow leagues, Addison is a must add with Jefferson dealing with an injury, especially with MIA on deck – a terrible secondary. He is a must start.
• WR Konata Mumpfield, LAR (1% Rostered) – Yep, once Puka comes back, Stafford will only have eyes for him, but I was impressed by this kid – 8 targets, 4 catches, 93 and a TD (a great catch) in a great Offense. He will not replace Jalen Coker production, but if you need a plug flex in a deeper league, I don’t hate it.

Wegs Power Rankings (after Week 3)

1. Bills (3-0) – Even after a terrible 5 TO performance, the Bills still won (and covered the spread).
2. 49ers (3-0) – They still have attrition with the loss of Bosa and potentially Mike Evans, but on the field, SF keeps winning.
3. Chiefs (3-0) – Miami was game for a while, but the Chiefs are rolling.
4. Jags (2-1) – Of the 2-1 teams, they are the best. The Offense is humming, and the D plays good enough – the loss at DEN was elevation more than play.
5. Vikings (3-0) – This team’s D may end up being historic. The blitz rate is 74%, which can’t be sustainable, right? Still, the D is carrying a team that is winning games they probably shouldn’t. The Jefferson injury is something to watch, though.

Key Matchups in Week 4

• Jags at Bengals (-2.5, 51.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/4 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – These are two playoff teams facing off early. The Bengals after 2 solid weeks looked like the same old Bengals at PIT. So, can they come home and play the kind of D they did in Weeks 1 and 2? Not sure, this Jags team will be the best O they have faced this year. In retrospect, the Bengals beat two 0-3 teams those early weeks. So, maybe, they are not at the same level as the Jags. Although the Jags have beaten the flaccid Pats and a Browns team before they believed in Watson. I still think there is value to the underdog here. The Bengals may bounce back here for the win, but I’ll take JAC +2.5. Total is pretty high, so I’ll go Under 51.5.
• Rams at Eagles (+3, 44.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/4 at 12 Noon Central on FOX – A marquee matchup here, and my NFC Title Game preview. The Rams early schedule has proved to be difficult, as they enter PHI 1-2. The Eagles looked lackluster on MNF at the Bears as a favorite, but I expect them to play much better at home. Will Puka play? Who knows, but it seems like the key matchup here is the PHI D-line against the pass protection of the Rams that held up pretty well in DEN. Gut feeling, I think the Eagles play well and win this one, even though I think the Rams are the better squad. PHI wins, PHI +2.5, Over 44.5 – should be more points than expected.
• Broncos at 49ers (-3, 46.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/4 at 3:25 PM Central on CBS – The Broncos are great at coming from behind in Mile High, but can they win outside of DEN? The 49ers somehow get a third straight home game, and their D has been leaky at best. So, the SF O will need to continue to be super efficient to cover up the injuries on the D line. Value is to DEN, but I’m not sure how good they are yet. I’m afraid SF will be able to run the ball effectively, and keep DEN off the field. So, the line looks right (if it gets past 3, then I’ll bet the Broncos). I’ll say SF wins, SF -3, Total Over 46.5 – SF will be an Over team until further notice.
• Chiefs at Raiders (+4.5, 47.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/4 at 3:25 PM Central on CBS – Starting the year, no one would have thought this Week 4 game would be a battle of undefeated teams on top of the AFC West. Look, the Raiders are outperforming expectations, so no, I don’t think they will keep this up or win this game. However, one thing is for sure, HC Klint Kubiak can really coach. The Chiefs D is not what it has been or will be, so I think the Raiders can keep this close. I’ll be rooting for them, as the Chiefs O has been more running than passing. The Raiders D can stand up at home. KC wins, LVR +4.5, Total Under 47.5.
• Falcons at Saints (-2.5, 48.5 Total) – Monday, 10/5 at 7:15 PM Central on ESPN – This game will be the commemoration of Katrina game that was the return of the Saints to the Super Dome in 2006 (after the 2005 hurricane) where Steve Gleason blocked the punt to start off the big win. So, the Dome will be rockin’ in support of the Saints who lost a tough one on Sunday. I think the game will be tightly contested, but I do like the Saints to bounce back and be ready for Bijan Robinson and Drake London. NO wins, NO -2.5, Total Over 48.5 in a game that should be fun to watch.

Let’s do this again.

Wegs