We have made it out west now. Another strong division to review.
AFC West Preview
Denver Broncos (9.5 Wins, +210 AFC West, +1000 AFC, +2000 Super Bowl)
- Coaching – HC Sean Payton is back with a team that probably should have won the AFC in 2025. OC is now Davis Webb who was promoted from QB Coach/Passing Game Coordinator with the departure of Joe Lombardi. DC Vance Joseph returns to a Top 3 D. So, essentially, the same coaching staff and system return.
- Departures – LB Dre Greenlaw (to SF), DE John Franklin-Myers (to TEN)
- Additions –
- Free Agents/Trades – WR Jaylen Waddle (via trade MIA)
- Draft – DE Tyler Onyedim (3rd – Texas A&M), OG Kage Casey (4th – Boise State), RB Jonah Coleman (4th – Washington), TE Justin Joly (5th – NC State), LB Red Murdock (7th – Buffalo)
- Outlook – The Broncos may have gotten a gift in the BUF playoff game, but lost QB Bo Nix for the AFC Title Game. So, can they do it again? They seem to be essentially running it back with minimal losses. The gains were also minimal with few draft picks, but the trade for Jaylen Waddle should give Nix another great weapon in a winnable AFC. I’m not really understanding the odds here. They are behind the Chiefs and Chargers in the division. Yes, they will play a tougher schedule as the 1st place team, but the D travels, as does the running game. I think they win this division again.
- Prediction – 11-6 AFC West Winner by tiebreaker
Kansas City Chiefs (10.5 Wins, +170 AFC West, +700 AFC, +1500 SB)
- Coaching – Andy Reid enters his 14th season in KC which eclipses his time in PHI. He brought back OC Eric Bieniemy who had a dramatic incident with his family just last month, so hopefully, he will be in the game as Nagy went to the Giants. DC Steve Spagnuolo is the captain of a unit that has really led KC in the last 2 seasons.
- Departures – OT Jawaan Taylor (to ATL), CB Jaylen Watson (to LAR), CB Trent McDuffie (to LAR), QB Gardner Minshew (to AZ), DE Janarius Robinson (unsigned), WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (to NYG), DE Charles Omenihu (to WAS), RB Kareem Hunt (unsigned), RB Isiah Pacheco (to DET), DT Derrick Nnadi (to IND), WR Marquise Brown (to PHI), DT Jerry Tillery (to IND)
- Additions –
- Free Agents/Trades – RB Kenneth Walker (from SEA), CB Kader Kohou (from MIA), S Alohi Gilman (from BAL), DT Khyiris Tonga (from NE), CB L’Jarius Sneed (from TEN), QB Justin Fields (via trade NYJ), RB Emari Demarcado (from AZ)
- Draft – CB Mansoor Delane (1st – LSU), DT Peter Woods (1st – Clemson), DE R Mason Thomas (2nd – Oklahoma), CB Jadon Canady (4th – Oregon), WR Cyrus Allen (5th – Cincinnati), QB Garrett Nussmeier (7th – LSU)
- Outlook – The Chiefs had a rough year in 2025 with not just the injury to QB Patrick Mahomes, but the team lacked the focus on D or the firepower on O. So, the attempt by KC is to reload in process with better and younger RBs in Walker and Demarcado. Switching out the CBs with a rookie and a younger free agent. Plus a couple of higher end backups with Fields from the Jets and the rookie Nussmeier just in case Mahomes goes down again. I understand why the odds are in their favor, but the AFC West hasn’t gotten softer since the end of last year. The Broncos did not lose much and the Chargers upgraded at weak positions and coaching. I have the Chiefs at the top of the division more on the basis of their weaker schedule than the Broncos and Chargers. They will need to earn the division. I have them falling short, but in the playoffs for now.
- Prediction – 11-6 – Wild Card lost on tiebreaker
Los Angeles Chargers (9.5 Wins, +185 AFC West, +775 AFC, +1700 SB)
- Coaching – HC Jim Harbaugh returns, but he has 2 new coordinators to try to get over the hump in the AFC. They have made the playoffs 2 years running, but gotten outclassed in back to back seasons. On O, the big acquisition is former MIA HC Mike McDaniel as the OC. McDaniel is known for super-charging the running game, and he definitely helps QBs excel. For Defense, with Jesse Minter going to BAL, Chris O’Leary, who was with the Chargers as Safeties Coach in 2024, then Western Michigan now gets tapped to be the DC. So, the buzz is the Chargers should be a real contender in this division.
- Departures – LB Odafe Oweh (to WAS), OT Otito Ogbonnia (to DAL), TE Tyler Conklin (to DET), CB Benjamin St-Juste (to GB), WR Keenan Allen (unsigned), OT Mekhi Becton (unsigned), C Bradley Bozeman (retired)
- Additions –
- Free Agents/Trades – C Tyler Biadasz (from WAS), DT Dalvin Tomlinson (from AZ), OG Cole Strange (from MIA), FB Alec Ingold (from MIA), OG Kayode Awosika (from DET), TE David Njoku (from CLE), TE Charlie Kolar (from BAL), RB Keaton Mitchell (from BAL)
- Draft – OLB Akheem Mesidor (1st – Miami), OG Jake Slaughter (2nd – Florida), OT Travis Burke (4th – Memphis), WR Brenen Thompson (4th – Miss State), S Genesis Smith (4th – Arizona), DT Nick Barrett (5th – South Carolina)
- Outlook – To me, the Chargers are the Falcons of the AFC. I’ve been excited about the Chargers for a decade. The D was good last year for the most part. It was the O-line that let them down in the playoffs and big games. So, will this group of acquisitions make a difference? If Rashawn Slater stays healthy, then yes, but losing Tyler Biadasz for the season will force Jake Slaughter to start. I think the unit is middling at best. I’m not sure QB Justin Herbert has that other gear needed for the playoffs, but he should get another chance. They will be right in the mix again. I still think they miss on the division.
- Prediction – 9-8 – Just miss on tiebreaker. I need to relook at the Chargers at the end of the preseason.
Las Vegas Raiders (5.5 Wins, +2000 AFC West, +7500 AFC, +15000 SB)
- Coaching – The Raiders made another change after just one year with Pete Carroll at the helm. This time, they have turned to the next wonderkind – Klint Kubiak – as the Head Coach from SEA who was the OC there leading to a Super Bowl. Kubiak should help the run game improve to set up play action passing. OC is Andrew Janocko who was the QB Coach under Kubiak in SEA to game plan the systems. The DC is now Rob Leonard stayed on as the former D-line Coach. So, the D will be the same, but the O should be the Kubiak system.
- Departures – LB Devin White (to DET), S Jamal Adams (to MIN), QB Kenny Pickett (to CAR), S Terrell Edmunds (unsigned), RB Raheem Mostert (unsigned), WR Tyler Lockett (unsigned)
- Additions –
- Free Agents/Trades – QB Kirk Cousins (from ATL), C Tyler Linderbaum (from BAL), LB Quay Walker (from GB), Kwity Paye (from IND), WR Jalen Nailor (from MIN), LB Nakobe Dean (from PHI), OG Spencer Burford (from SF), CB Taron Johnson (from BUF), FB Connor Heyward (from PIT), DT Benito Jones (from MIA), WR Dareke Young (from SEA)
- Draft – QB Fernando Mendoza (1st – Indiana), CB Treydan Stukes (2nd – Arizona), OLB Keyron Crawford (3rd – Auburn), OG Trey Zuhn (3rd – Texas A&M), RB Mike Washington (4th – Arkansas), CB Jermod McCoy (4th – Tennessee), S Dalton Johnson (5th – Arizona), CB Hezekiah Masses (5th – Cal), WR Malik Benson (6th – Oregon)
- Outlook – The Raiders have been struggling since the early Gruden days. Kubiak definitely brings more hope to the Desert. The O-Line changes should help, but RB Ashton Jeanty is already injured, so their upside will be limited. The passing game is where I see the shortcomings on O – TE Brock Bowers is great, but they need a huge year from Nailor to really compete in this tough division. The Raiders kinda got a break in keeping OLB Maxx Crosby with the aborted trade to BAL. As the D has been good, and the additions seem good upfront. I think they will struggle on the back end. I’m probably harsh in my prediction, but they play in a very tough AFC West.
- Prediction – 5-12 – Miss the playoffs
One more division to go.
Wegs