Last year’s weakest division may be more competitive this year.
NFC South Preview
New Orleans Saints (7.5 Wins, +260 NFC South, +3500 NFC, +8000 Super Bowl)
- Coaching – HC Kellen Moore returns in his 2nd year. It started off rough in 2025, but the Saints proved very competitive down the stretch with the rookie HC and rookie QB Tyler Shough. OC Doug Nussmeier is also back running Moore’s scheme on Offense, which really had an impact late in the year. DC Brandon Staley also returns, and again, late in the year, no team was playing better in the NFC South.
- Key Departures – DE Jonathan Bullard (to DAL), TE Foster Moreau (to HOU), OLB Demario Davis (to NYJ), QB Taysom Hill (unsigned), C Will Clapp (retired)
- Additions –
- Free Agents/Trades – RB Travis Etienne (from JAC), OG David Edwards (from BUF), LB Kaden Elliss (from ATL), OLB Tyree Wilson (via trade LVR), CB Martin Emerson (from CLE), TE Noah Fant (from CIN), QB Zach Wilson (from MIA)
- Draft – WR Jordyn Tyson (1st – AZ State), DT Christen Miller (2nd – Georgia), OG Jeremiah Wright (4th – Auburn), WR Bryce Lance (4th – ND State), CB Lorenzo Styles (5th – Ohio State), WR Barion Brown (6th – LSU)
- Outlook – In a division that is literally wide open at the shallow end of the NFL pool, I’ll take the team who finished the strongest in 2025. The Saints found their stride, especially within the division in 2025 finishing 3-3. Shough may not be an All Pro at QB, but he found a real connection with WR Chris Olave, and with the drafting of Jordyn Tyson at WR and acquisition of Etienne – I think the Offense will have some push. The D is solid, and Staley’s system really stymied teams once their top guys started to perform. I like the Saints as a sleeper this year.
- Prediction – 9-8 – NFC South Winner and Over 7.5 Wins.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8.5 Wins, +175 NFC South, +2200 NFC, +5000 SB)
- Coaching – Somehow, the Bucs did not end the Todd Bowles era in Tampa. Bowles has definitely lost his fastball, and the aging roster has cost him. Per Ourlads, Bowles is also the DC, so it always has been his Defense, but game day decisions may suffer if he is calling the D. Bowles has tapped Zac Robinson, former ATL OC, to call the Offense. After a hot start, the Bucs fell on their face to lose the NFC South and not qualify for the playoffs for the first time in years. QB Baker Mayfield may thrive in a new system, but we will see.
- Key Departures – WR Mike Evans (to SF), OT Charlie Heck (to MIA), CB Jamel Dean (to PIT), RB Rachaad White (to WAS), OLB Haason Reddick (unsigned), LB Lavonte David (retired)
- Additions –
- Free Agents/Trades – DE A’Shawn Robinson (from CAR), LB Alex Anzalone (from DET), DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches (from NYG), LB Christian Rozeboom (from CAR), OLB Al-Quadin Muhammad (from DET), CB Chase Lucas (from SF), OT Justin Skule (from MIN), QB Jake Browning (from CIN), RB Kenneth Gainwell (from PIT), S Miles Killebrew (from PIT)
- Draft – OLB Rueben Bain (1st – Miami), LB Josiah Trotter (2nd – Missouri), WR Ted Hurst (3rd – GA State), CB Keionte Scott (4th – Miami), OG Billy Schrauth (5th – Notre Dame), DT DeMonte Capehart (5th – Clemson)
- Outlook – The Bucs had their run in the division, but it is over. They can still win the NFC South, but I do not see them being a contender in the NFC at all. Baker Mayfield can make some magic, but he did not receive an extension – which seems like a sign. Plus, TB lost veterans like Evans and David, which seems like the heart of this team needs work, not to mention the trade talks for Vita Vea – the stalwart DT. Maybe Bain can help rejuvenate the Defense. I think they will be in a dogfight this year and fall short with Bowles losing his job. In my first cut, I have them right here, but look for a bold prediction in my final analysis.
- Prediction – 8-9 – Miss Playoffs
Atlanta Falcons (7.5 Wins, +360 NFC South, +4000 NFC, +8000 SB)
- Coaching – Atlanta made another change this year, this time former CLE HC Kevin Stefanski who may feel liberated. He inherits a Ferrari of an Offense with weapons aplenty. Stefanski tapped Tommy Rees as OC who came with him from CLE. On Defense, Stefanski kept DC Jeff Ulbrich, who did have the Falcons playing better in 2025. So, it seems if Stefanski can maximize the Offense, then they are the best team on paper in the NFC South.
- Key Departures – QB Kirk Cousins (to LVR), WR Darnell Mooney (to NYG), DT David Onyemata (to NYJ), CB Dee Alford (to BUF), RB Tyler Allgeier (to AZ), DE Kentavius Street (to CHI), LB Kaden Elliss (to NO), OLB Leonard Floyd (unsigned)
- Additions –
- Free Agents/Trades – QB Tua Tagovailoa (from MIA), WR Jahan Dotson (from PHI), WR Olamide Zaccheaus (from CHI), OT Jawaan Taylor (from KC), DT Maason Smith (via trade JAC), LB Christian Harris (from HOU), LB Azeez Ojulari (from PHI), CB Sydney Brown (via trade PHI), DE Samson Ebukam (from IND), DT Da’Shawn Hand (from LAC), DE Chris Williams (from CHI), RB Brian Robinson (from SF), OT Wanya Morris (via trade KC), TE Austin Hooper (from NE)
- Draft – CB Avieon Terrell (2nd – Clemson), WR Zachariah Branch (3rd – Georgia), LB Kendal Daniels (4th – Oklahoma), LB Harold Perkins (6th – LSU), OT Ethan Onianwa (7th – Ohio State)
- Outlook – The Falcons have been a team “on the rise” for the past 4 seasons. So, I cannot have my typical response to this team that they will win this division. Their Offense should be Top 4 in the NFL with Tua at QB, Bijan Robinson at RB, Drake London at WR and Kyle Pitts at TE, so there is no excuse to not be in games. The Defense played well last year, and they have a lot of depth from their free agency acquisitions, but the James Pearce situation isn’t great – he was just suspended 8 games. Plus, they lost their other top edge rusher in Jalon Walker for the season the first week of camp. Like I wrote, they should be the team to beat. I do like their bet better than the Saints as their odds are longer to win the NFC South. Plus, the early losses on D will hurt them to compete. For now, I have them on the outside looking in, but they will be a bet on team if they start slow and once Pearce returns.
- Prediction – 8-9 – Miss Playoffs
Carolina Panthers (7.5 Wins, +325 NFC South, +4000 NFC, +8000 SB)
- Coaching – HC Dave Canales returns after an exciting year with an NFC South title (albeit backing into it) and a near playoff upset of the Rams. So, there is hope in Charlotte. Canales returns his whole staff – OC Brad Idzik – although it is the Canales Offense. DC Ejiro Evero is also back after a better year on the Defense. So, what is not to like?
- Key Departures – DT A’Shawn Robinson (to TB), LB DJ Wonnum (to DET), RB Rico Dowdle (to PIT), OG Austin Corbett (to BUF), OT Yosh Nijman (retired)
- Additions –
- Free Agents/Trades – C Luke Fortner (from NO), WLB Devin Lloyd (from JAC), OLB Jaelen Phillips (from PHI), R John Metchie (from NYJ), OT Rasheed Walker (from GB), QB Kenny Pickett (from LVR)
- Draft – OT Monroe Freeling (1st – Clemson), DT Lee Hunter (2nd – Texas Tech), WR Chris Brazzell (3rd – Tennessee), CB Will Lee (4th – K State), C Sam Hecht (5th – K State), S Zakee Wheatley (5th – Penn State)
- Outlook – It is hard to ding this Panthers team. I liked them last year, and they were a fresh faced team to make the playoffs and even pushed the Rams. However, someone takes a hit in this division. They will play the 1st place schedule, and I do not see a ton of talent differences in this division. QB Bryce Young was much improved in 2025. However, he may need to take another step to keep this team on top of the NFC South. For now, I’m downgrading them. It seems harsh to have them 4th, but the difference in this division from top to bottom is just 3 games. They have already suffered a season ending injury on the first day of training camp with Nic Scourton. I just feel they will fall in the division this year in my first cut through the schedule. Still, coaching matters and Canales has proven he is up to the challenge.
- Prediction – 7-10 – Miss Playoffs
Next we go out West.
Wegs