One half of the league down, and one more to go.
AFC South Preview
Houston Texans (9.5 Wins, +120 AFC South, +850 AFC, +1800 Super Bowl)
- Coaching – The Texans is one the teams that returns the entire coaching staff from 2025 (like their rivals in this division). HC DeMeco Ryans has proven he can lead men down in HOU. I’m a big fan. Now, can he get his team over the top in 2026? The D was top flight in 2025, so DC Matt Burke with Ryans should have the Texans flying around again. DE Will Anderson did get paid. That will hopefully keep him motivated like he was last year with DE Danielle Hunter to terrorize QBs. The issue was the Offense. OC Nick Caley comes back, and the main issue in recent years has been the O-Line – more on that later. The QB may be the real issue now. Caley needs to get CJ Stroud back to his top level – the playoff failures last year cost them a trip to the Super Bowl which is on the line this year again.
- Key Departures – DT Tim Settle (to WAS), WR Christian Kirk (to SF), RB Joe Mixon (unsigned), S Jimmie Ward (unsigned), DT Foley Fatukasi (unsigned), DE Derek Barnett (unsigned), DT Denico Autry (unsigned), RB Nick Chubb (unsigned)
- Additions
- Free Agents/Draft – OG Wyatt Teller (from CLE), OT Braden Smith (from IND), RB David Montgomery (via trade DET), S Reed Blankenship (from PHI), DT Logan Hall (from TB), DE Dominique Robinson (from CHI), TE Foster Moreau (from NO), OG Evan Brown (from AZ)
- Draft – OC Keylan Rutledge (1st – GA Tech), DT Kayden McDonald (2nd – Ohio State), TE Marlin Klein (2nd – Michigan), LB Wade Woodaz (4th – Clemson), OG Febechi Nwaiwu (4th – Oklahoma), S Kamari Ramsey (5th – USC), WR Lewis Bond (6th – Boston College)
- Outlook – I do love the Texans again. They did lose a lot of depth on the Defensive Line with some backfill in Free Agency and McDonald in the Draft. So, the health of the top line guys will matter more than in 2025. Again, the biggest factor is CJ Stroud who got his 5th year option picked up by HOU in lieu of an extension. So, it is a prove it year for him. WR Nico Collins is a stud, but I think the return of WR Tank Dell – if he is at the same level with the young guys and addition of Montgomery and the O-Line changes – that O may be a lot better. It is now or never for the Texans with no dominant team in the AFC. I think they can contend again, and actually make the big game – their floor needs to be the AFC Title Game. Over the win total is a given. The AFC price is a little light for me to bet it, but I do like them for the AFC – the odds have improved since training camp.
- Prediction – 12-5 – AFC South Winner – AFC Contender
Jacksonville Jaguars (9.5 Wins, +210 AFC South, +1300 AFC, +2800 SB)
- Coaching – HC Liam Coen had a great first year – he was one of a short list that should have won Coach of the Year. The turnaround for QB Trevor Lawrence made the Jags win the AFC South and should have beaten the Bills in the Wild Card round. OC Grant Udinski returns as the named OC, but it is Coen’s Offense. On D, DC Anthony Campanile also returns for a very solid Defense from a year ago. Not at the Texans’ caliber, but not far off, especially up front stopping the run. The staff should be able to keep this team in contention.
- Key Departures – RB Travis Etienne (to NO), LB Devin Lloyd (to CAR), CB Greg Newsome (to NYG),WR Tim Patrick (to NYJ), DE Emmanuel Ogbah (unsigned)
- Additions
- Free Agents/Trades – DT Ruke Orhorhoro (via trade ATL), RB Chris Rodriguez (from WAS), CB Dane Jackson (from BUF)
- Draft – TE Nate Boerkircher (2nd – Texas A&M), DT Albert Regis (3rd – Texas A&M), OG Emmanuel Pregnon (3rd – Oregon), S Jalen Huskey (3rd – Maryland), DE Wesley Williams (4th – Duke), WR CJ Williams (6th – Stanford), WR Josh Cameron (6th – Baylor)
- Outlook – The Jags were one of those turnaround teams in 2025 like NE. They exceeded expectations, and Lawrence along with that D played at a level that mattered. The loss of Etienne is going to hurt, as he had a career year in 2025. His versatility will be missed in this Offense. The Jags should be good again. They essentially return most of the starters from the AFC South Championship team. They should make the playoffs again. If HOU can’t get Stroud right, then they can take the division again. Over their win total is a good bet.
- Prediction – 10-7 – Wild Card playoff team
Indianapolis Colts (7.5 Wins, +380 AFC South, +2500 AFC, +5000 SB)
- Coaching – HC Shane Steichen is back after a good start in 2025, but tough finish. Jim Bob Cooter is back at OC, and the Offense looked great until QB Daniel Jones was lost to injury. The DC upgrade in 2025 was ok under DC Lou Anarumo, but the D was not good enough in the big games.
- Key Departures – OT Braden Smith (to HOU), DE Kwity Paye (to LVR), WR Michael Pittman (to PIT), S Nick Cross (to WAS), NT Chris Wormley (unsigned), QB Philip Rivers (retired – again)
- Additions
- Free Agents/Trades – WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (from MIA), DE Arden Key (from TEN), LB Akeem Davis-Gaither (from AZ), DT Colby Wooden (via trade GB), DE Michael Clemons (from NYJ), S Juanyeh Thomas (from DAL), CB Cam Taylor-Britt (from CIN)
- Draft – LB CJ Allen (2nd – Georgia), S AJ Haulcy (3rd – LSU), LB Bryce Boettcher (4th – Oregon), OG Jalen Farmer (4th – Kentucky), DE George Gumbs (5th – Florida), WR Deion Burks (7th – Oklahoma)
- Outlook – The Colts were the hottest team in the first half of 2025, but they came crashing back to earth. Their actual performance is somewhere between those extremes. Steichen is a solid coach, but in a division with tougher and more talented teams, I think they are 3rd banana. Jones returning will certainly help, but no Pittman will matter. The D has to play better – I do like the CJ Allen draft pick, and RB Jonathan Taylor will have to be elite again for the Colts to have a shot in this division or even the playoffs. I’m skeptical.
- Prediction – 7-10 – Miss Playoffs – probably harsh
Tennessee Titans (6.5 Wins, +800 AFC South, +6600 AFC, +15000 SB)
- Coaching – The Titans’ revolving door turned again, this time Robert Saleh gets a 2nd chance as HC. Saleh brings perhaps a better staff with him than in NY. Saleh tapped Brian Daboll as the OC with his firing out of the Giants. Saleh brings Gus Bradley with him from SF – former DC in Indy. I don’t love that choice, but it will be Saleh’s Defense, which may be fine. The success in TEN revolves around the QB – Cam Ward in his 2nd year, so Daboll will matter a lot more.
- Key Departures – DE Arden Key (to IND), DE Jihad Ward (unsigned), TE Chigoziem Okonkwo (to WAS), OG Kevin Zeitler (unsigned), DT Sebastian Joseph-Day (to PIT), QB Brandon Allen (to NYG)
- Additions
- Free Agents/Trades – WR Wandale Robinson (from NYG), C Austin Schlottman (from NYG), DE John Franklin-Myers (from DEN), DT Jordan Elliott (from SF), DE Jermaine Johnson (via trade NYJ), CB Alontae Taylor (from NO), CB Cor’Dale Flott (from NYG), OG Cordell Volson (from CIN), TE Daniel Bellinger (from NYG), QB Mitchell Trubisky (from BUF), OT Austin Deculus (from LAC), DT Solomon Thomas (via trade DAL), LB Mohamoud Diabate (from CLE), CB Joshua Williams (from KC), S Tony Adams (from NYJ)
- Draft – WR Carnell Tate (1st – Ohio State), DE Keldric Faulk (1st – Auburn), LB Anthony Hill (2nd – Texas), OG Fernando Carmona (5th – Arkansas), C Pat Coogan (6th – Indiana), DT Jackie Marshall (6th – Baylor)
- Outlook – The Titans are a relook unit with a lot of guys coming over from the Giants with Daboll and some SF or former SF guys with Saleh. The D may be better with the Franklin-Myers and Faulk outside to complement All Pro DT Jeffery Simmons. I think Ward will take big strides under Daboll – like Josh Allen and Daniel Jones before him. I still think they will fall short in this division. Saleh is a good motivator, but in game situations are not his strong suit. His D may be improved, but at least 3rd in this division. So, I think they will be in a lot more games this year, but not get the results.
- Prediction – 6-11 – Miss Playoffs – perhaps a game or two more in the final analysis.
Alright on to the NFC South.
Wegs