College Hoops: Final Four and Championship Preview

We have hit the final week of the College Basketball season. It is bittersweet. There is no better 3 weeks in sports, but it goes from 68 to 4 so quickly.

Final Four Preview – Saturday, April 4th

• 3 Illinois vs. 2 UConn (+1.5, 139.5 Total) 5:09 PM Central on TBS
  • The first half of the bracket has the 2 spoilers in the tournament. 3 Seed Illinois has played at a really high level in every round. They did trail against Iowa in the Elite 8, but overall, they have been a dominant force playing different ways – fast in some games and grinding it out like against Houston. Their size has been a big differentiator so far, and that includes their guards that have size.
  • 2 Seed UConn pulled off the impossible comeback against 1 Seed Duke in the Elite 8 – 19 points down at one point and 15 points at the half, where 1 Seeds were 134-0 prior to the comeback. The hallmark of this team is grit. They are not nearly as talented or deep as the back to back championship teams. However, C Tarris Reed has been great in the middle. The perimeter play has been up and down, but in late game situations – Senior F Alex Karaban has hit big 3s and made the right plays – like the pass to frosh G Braylon Mullins (Elite 8 hero) and even G Solo Ball has been able to play better as the games go on.
  • To me, the game boils down to Reed and his play. If he can take on the size of Illinois himself, then the Huskies have a great chance to advance. Otherwise, if he gets in foul trouble, Illinois can roll UConn. The guards are better for Illinois in my view. Illinois’ trio of Wagler, Stojakovic and Boswell match up very well against UConn. However, as much as I despise his antics – Huskies’ HC Danny Hurley is a better coach than Brad Underwood. Now, Underwood has impressed me with his gameplans, especially against Houston. So, maybe I’m discounting him too much here, but I believe in-game adjustments by Hurley will keep UConn in the game. The line is really short, so you need to pick the winner. I’ve been picking against Illinois in my articles and have been wrong, so as much as I fear UConn, I just think Illinois is the better team. Illinois wins, Covers -1.5, Total Over 139.5 – I think Illinois should run tempo on UConn to try and dig into their lack of depth. It should be a great game.

• 1 Michigan vs. 1 Arizona (+1.5, 157.5 Total) 7:49 PM Central on TBS
  • Perhaps the game of the year in this half of the bracket, as 1 Seed Michigan takes on 1 Seed Arizona. With Duke out, these are the best teams in the original field. I would contend that at least Arizona was better than Duke, especially with the Duke injuries. Arizona is big, fast and strong. Sounds like a football team, which they are. They have better guards than Michigan – senior G Avery Bradley is so tough and can close games, frosh G Brayden Burries is electric and the versatile F Ivan Karchenkov is a swiss army knife who can guard 1-4. The bigs of frosh Koa Peat, junior C Motiejus Krivas who is a mountain and senior Tobe Awaka off the bench give them depth. To me, the Wildcats are the best team, but their Achilles heel is 3 point shooting. They only shoot about 20% of their shots from deep, which in a game that will feature a lot of scoring may come back to haunt them. They do get to the foul line better than any team in the country, which is their counter to the lack of triples.
  • Michigan is not quite a carbon copy of Arizona, but they, too, have so much size. Their frontline may be slightly more versatile than Arizona’s, C Aday Mara is not just super tall, but he can shoot, forwards – Yaxel Lendeborg has been outstanding and Morez Johnson gets buckets in the paint. So, I do think Michigan has a slight advantage there. At the guards, Elliot Cadeau has had his moments along with Trey McKenney and Nimari Burnett. I think Arizona has better guards, but Michigan makes up for ability with depth there. The matchups will be interesting to see.
  • It is a shame these teams play on Saturday and not Monday night, but that is how the bracket came out. I’ve seen both teams play a lot this year. Michigan probably has the higher ceiling as they shoot the 3 much more often and better than Arizona, so would I be surprised if Michigan won at margin? No, I would not. However, I stand by that Arizona outside of a 6 day span when they lost twice in the Big 12, they have been the best team in the country every other week. They have the better guards which matter in March, and if the strength of Krivas, Peat and Awaka can win over the length of Mara and Johnson, we will have a great game. The coaching difference is the other thing to discuss. I’ve heard both Dusty Maye and Tommy Lloyd are considered for the UNC opening, so maybe there is a distraction for these coaches. Maye has been in the Final Four before, so that is a definite advantage, and I’ve been critical of Lloyd in big games. Still, he has the better team to me. If it comes to a one possession game, Michigan will probably win if it is on the coaches. Still, I am going to stick with my pre-tournament pick and say Arizona wins, Covers +1.5, Under 157.5 Total. Let’s hope for a great game.

Championship Game – Monday, April 6th at 7:50 PM Central – TBS, TNT, TruTV

Obviously, there are a variety of outcomes here. Some facts to consider:

• Big Ten Drought – The Big Ten has not won the title since 2000 when Michigan State cut down the nets. As a Midwesterner, I hope it is Illinois-Michigan to give the Big Ten the title again, as they have dominated this tournament as a conference.
  • Michigan since their National Title in 1989, the Wolverines have reached the title game 4 times losing every single one of them (1992, 1993, 2013, 2018).
  • Illinois since 1952, the Illini have reached the Final Four only twice (1989 and 2005) and lost in the title game in 2005.
• West Coast Swing – A west coast team – which Arizona is considered – has not won the title since 1997 when the Wildcats beat Kentucky with Lute Olson at the helm. So, Arizona, like the Big Ten, is fighting against history.
  • Arizona has reached the title game just one other time since the 1997 win, losing to Duke in 2001.
• UConn Final Four Dominance – Since the 1999 season, when UConn makes the Final Four, they win the title (2004, 2011, 2014, 2023, 2024) all but once in 2009. Now with 3 different coaches, that is true – Calhoun, Ollie and now Hurley. So, I do not blame you if you bet on the Huskies to cut down the nets – they have the other droughts on their side and their own history.

Look, trends don’t pay the rent, so I still think that the winner of Michigan-Arizona wins on Monday. I believe it will be Arizona as they are the most balanced team. However, in one game with college kids, you never know. Danny Hurley and his bunch have history on their side for sure, but they will need to beat the better team.

Enjoy the games.

Wegs