College Hoops: Sweet 16 and Elite 8 Preview

We have moved from 68 to 16 and after Sunday, we will have the Final Four.

Sweet 16 to Elite 8 Preview

East Region (Washington, DC)

The region has held per the predictions. The 4 best teams in the region, so no surprises. Duke has struggled some, and St. Johns almost fell to Kansas. Still, I think these are the best games collectively.

• 5 St. Johns vs. 1 Duke (-6.5, 141.5 Total) – Friday, 3/27 at 6:10 PM Central on CBS – The Blue Devils struggled in the first two rounds with the depleted team. They will get C Patrick Ngongba back and even word G Caleb Foster could return. I wouldn’t count on Foster, but Ngongba is pretty key to this game. St. Johns can bang with Duke, and this team should be a slugfest. I’m very excited to see the battle at forward – Zuby Ejiofor vs. Cam Boozer. However, the game will be won by the other players. The ACC has shown extremely weak this year, so I like St. Johns and the points, but do I think they beat Duke here? I don’t think so. Trust me, I want Pitino to take his team to Indy with my 50-1 Future on the Red Storm. However, HC Jon Scheyer is a good coach, and he will have his team ready to battle the defensive prowess of St. Johns. Under is definitely the best bet in the game, so Duke wins, St. Johns +6.5, Under 141.5.
• 3 Michigan State vs. 2 UConn (-1.5, 135.5 Total) – Friday, 3/27 at 8:45 PM Central on CBS – What a great game here! Izzo vs. Hurley. Two great tourney coaches in a big spot. Either team can get to Indy, so this is what the Committee wanted to see. I’ve been skeptical of UConn all season. I think they run that very deliberate Offense, which can befuddle good defensive teams. Sparty is not quite St. Johns on D, but they are tough. The Huskies did get good play out of their bench, but can they keep State off the glass? I don’t think so. I think the wrong team is favored, and this game opened at -2.5 for UConn, which I took. I think Sparty is better than UConn, so take the points for sure. It should be a good game, and I expect MSU’s G Jeremy Fears to be the difference in this one. Spartans win, MSU +1.5, Total Over 135.5 (even with the defenses).
• 3 Michigan State vs. 1 Duke (-5, 138.5 Total – estimate) Sunday, 3/29 – Whatever combination comes out of this region will be awesome – St. Johns/UConn IV would be great. Sparty vs. St. Johns a total slugfest. I think Sparty-Duke is the most likely to me, even though UConn-Duke would be a classic matchup, too. Regardless, if Duke gets past St. Johns, then they will cut down the nets for the East Region. They are deeper than UConn and Sparty. They have more Offense than the other 3 teams, and even though Izzo will do his thing, Duke is the best of this bunch. Duke wins, Covers -5, Over 138.5.

South Region (Houston, TX)

This is the region that was wild. 1 Florida got bounced by the unfathomable Hawkeyes, and I even think 4 Nebraska was a surprise given their lack of wins in the tournament. Bottom half is as expected.

• 9 Iowa vs. 4 Nebraska (-1.5, 131.5 Total) – Thursday, 3/26 at 6:30 PM Central on TBS/Tru – The miracle Hawkeyes played to their potential for 2 games in a row. Can they make it a third? Nebraska has seen this team twice during the season and split the games, including an OT win by the Huskers in the season finale in Lincoln. So, it is a rubber match. I’ve seen both these teams play all year. Iowa would be a heavier dog prior to last weekend. So, do you believe that HC Ben McCollum really is a great tournament coach? He certainly has gotten his teams to play great. I’m going to buy into the hype of Iowa. I’ll happily be wrong here, but Nebraska was really good to start the season and tailed off. Iowa has the best player on the floor in Bennett Stirtz. In a tightly lined game, I’ll take the talent – Iowa wins, Covers +1.5, Total Over 131.5.
• 3 Illinois vs. 2 Houston (-2.5, 139.5 Total) – Thursday, 3/26 at 9:05 PM Central on TBS/Tru -The winner of this game will go to Indy. I love the matchup at the guards spots – Wagler/Stojakovic/Boswell vs. Flemings/Sharp/Uzan – there are some pros in there. Houston has a much better tournament pedigree than the Illini, and I think the coaching mismatch is pronounced towards Houston’s Kelvin Sampson. The only thing that gives me pause with Houston is that Illinois has a much bigger team than Houston. Houston’s lack of inside scoring is their Achilles heel. So, I’m going to flip with my prediction of Illinois winning this game, even though I want them to win. The line has moved down a little bit towards Illinois. Hard to look past that Houston is essentially playing a home game. These teams are really close in Kenpom. Houston wins, Illinois Covers +2.5, Total Under 139.5. Grit will win over talent most of the time.
• 9 Iowa vs. 2 Houston (-8, 141.5 Total – estimate) – Saturday, 3/28 – Again, very likely that Nebraska/Houston is the game. Regardless of the matchup, Illinois or Houston will win this region. I love how Iowa and Nebraska have played, and it would be nice to see an all Big Ten Elite 8 in the South of all places. Still, Houston has been there, and Sampson is the best coach of this group. The moment will be too big at some point for the Hawkeyes, so Houston will cut down the nets in the South. Houston wins, Covers -8, Under 141.5.

West Region (San Jose, CA)

• 11 Texas vs. 2 Purdue (-7.5, 148.5 Total) – Thursday, 3/26 at 6:10 PM Central on CBS – The Texas to the Sweet 16 was almost a given, as a team from the play in has reached the Sweet 16 in 15 of 17 times from what I understand. The Longhorns have a couple of pros on the team for sure, but this Purdue team has seemed to right the ship after swooning at the tail end of the Big Ten season. I think the Boilers will be able to contend with the Texas big man, and here is where good guards make a difference – Braden Smith should control the game. I like Purdue to win, but the spread seems a little high. So, I’ll split the baby here – Purdue wins, Texas +7.5, Total Under 148.5.
• 4 Arkansas vs. 1 Arizona (-7.5, 166.5 Total) – Thursday, 3/26 at 8:45 PM Central on CBS – This one is going to be fun. The Hogs are balling, and G Darius Acuff is must watch tv. As I mentioned before, I love this Arkansas team, but they only have 7 guys who play. Arizona is deep, and they have bodies who will be thrown at Acuff to slow him down. I think Jaden Bradley will be physical with Acuff at the point of attack, and they may even put F Ivan Kharchenkov on him for stretches. If Arkansas is to have a chance, F Trevon Brazile has to play big., as Mount Krivas is a dude in the middle. I just do not think Arkansas will keep the Wildcats off the glass, and since Arizona does not rely on the 3, they will be tougher for the Razorbacks to guard (which they barely play D). So, Arizona is going to win, Cover -7.5, Over 166.5 (or I hope so).
• 2 Purdue vs. 1 Arizona (-4.5, 144.5 Total – estimate) – Saturday, 3/28 – A 1 vs. 2 matchup should yield a good game. I think Arkansas/Purdue would be fun, too. The major angle here is can HC Tommy Lloyd finally win a big game? He has had the talent before and blown it. He has the better team, and Arizona has more size than Purdue and just as good of guards. I’m not a huge Matt Painter fan, either, but he has been in this position and succeeded before with a senior laden team. In the end, I have to stick with my prediction of Arizona cutting down the nets in San Jose to move on to Indy. Arizona wins, Covers -4.5, Under 144.5.

Midwest Region (Chicago, IL)

• 4 Alabama vs. 1 Michigan (-9.5, 174.5 Total) – Friday, 3/27 at 6:35 PM Central on TBS/Tru – Let’s get some points on the board. The highest total of all of the 8 games in this round, mainly because Alabama does not play defense, and secondly, they can shoot it. The real question is will they make 15-20 triples against the Michigan D. I actually do not think so. Michigan is deep and can defend. So, I’m a wolverines backer in this matchup. The size of Michigan should ground Bama to a halt in this game. Much like how Florida played Bama this year, Michigan will control the tempo if they want to. So, I’m calling for an easy Michigan win, Cover -9.5 (down from -10.5), Under 174.5 (I know sad).
• 6 Tennessee vs. 2 Iowa State (-4.5, 138.5 Total) – Friday, 3/27 at 9:10 PM Central on TBS/Tru – The Vols do it again into the Sweet 16 – HC Rick Barnes is an underrated coach in that respect. His team always will play hard and on the defensive end. The true question in this game is will Joshua Jefferson play or not and if he will be effective. The Cyclones found their rhythm without him, but the Vols play really good D. So, I think with him out there, it can help balance the floor, as I’m not sure they will make as many 3s this game. I still like the Cyclones to win this game, regardless. They are the better team, and they have that unified attitude right now that can break any opponent. Iowa State wins, Covers -4.5, Total Under 138.5.
• 2 Iowa State vs. 1 Michigan (-4.5, 144.5 Total – estimate) – Sunday, 3/29 – I really hope Jefferson can play near 100% because this can be an all time great game. Going into the tournament, I picked the Cyclones to upset Michigan, but I’m not sure I feel the same way about it with the injury. Michigan’s size and versatility will be a big issue for Iowa State, but it is not like the Cyclones have not played big teams and won like Arizona. One thing to consider here is Michigan did not play well in the United Center in the Big Ten Tournament, so maybe their shooting will not be dialed in like it should be. So, I’ll take Iowa State and the points for sure. I also like the Under in the game at -144.5. So, as of this afternoon, I think Michigan advances, but if Jefferson plays well on Friday, then I’ll flip back to the Cyclones. They have a gritty coach, good program and better guards than Michigan, but they need to be full strength to win.

Alright, enjoy the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. Should be some good basketball.

Wegs