College Hoops: March Is Here

We are just 2 weeks from Selection Sunday. This week starts the conference tournaments for smaller schools. So, the Madness is here.

Big Game Recaps

• UConn Exacted Revenge – Earlier in February at MSG, the Johnnies took care of UConn. This time the Huskies turned up the defense, and St. Johns had the worst shooting performance in recent memory. St. Johns missed its final 24 shots, and UConn strolled to a 72-40 win (UConn Cover, Under).
• Sparty Back On A Roll – Well, it is March, and that is Izzo time. His team went into Purdue’s house and handed them their 4th loss on the year – a rarity. The Spartans shot a red hot 52.5% from the field in their 76-74 win (MSU Cover, Under 151.5).
• Wolverines Claim 1st Place – Michigan took a minute to rebound from the Duke loss. This time, they went to Champaign and dominated the Illini, 84-70. The Wolverines shot 53% from the field, and was able to limit Illinois to 41% shooting. Michigan secures the Big Ten Regular Season Title with the win (Michigan Cover, Under 166.5).
• Arizona On Top Again – After those 2 games a couple weeks ago, the Wildcats have been able to respond, even without Koa Peat. This time on Saturday with him back in the lineup, Arizona took apart the Jayhawks 84-61 killing the undersized Kansas 48-26. G Darryn Peterson had 24 points for KU, but Arizona had all 5 starters in double figures. Arizona has a 2 game lead with a week to go, so they will have a share of the Big 12 Regular Season Title (Arizona Cover, Over).
• Gators Run Out the Hogs – I’ve been saying this for weeks, Florida is playing at another level. This time, Arkansas had no shot at keeping up with the Gators, as they scored 111 points winning going away, 111-77. Florida shot 57% and outrebounded Arkansas by 20. They are peaking at the right time (Florida Cover, Over).
• Arizona Takes Big 12 – On Saturday, Arizona guaranteed a share of the Big 12 Regular Season Title, and playing Iowa State they earned the outright Title. The first half was competitive, but the Wildcats’ size was just too much for the Cyclones. A 40-33 rebound advantage, 6 blocks and 23 of 26 made free throws led to the easy 73-57 victory. Arizona is deserving of a 1 Seed (Arizona Cover, Under).

Predictions: S/U 5-1 ; ATS 4-2; Totals 3-3 – good bounce back week.

KenPom Review

1. Duke (28-2) – The Blue Devils stomped UVA on Saturday securing the ACC Title again, and took care of NC State on Monday. They are ready for March Madness.
2. Michigan (27-2) – The dismantling of Illinois makes them the best Big Ten team by a lot.
3. Arizona (28-2) – The Wildcats have secured the Big 12 crown, and when healthy they are as good or better than Duke and Michigan.
4. Florida (23-6) – The Gators are now 4th on D, 11th on O. They are going for a repeat.
5. Illinois (22-7) – Maybe the Illini can bounce back after the loss versus Michigan, but more importantly, there is another team playing well in the Big Ten.
6. Houston (24-5) – The Cougars took out their frustrations on Colorado to feel better, but they need to find a way to take out Arizona.
7. Purdue (22-7) – The Boilers’ D is trending the wrong way – 33rd seems more like 40th, as they have given up multiple games in a row with opponents over 50% shooting.
8. Michigan State (24-5) – Sparty is playing well again with road wins at Purdue and Indiana – Top 6 D really travels.
9. Iowa State (24-6) – The Cyclones have dropped 3 of 4 after the knocking off of KU and Houston.
10. UConn (27-3) – The big win over St. Johns was almost given back versus Seton Hall, but they have a 1 Seed for now.
11. Nebraska (25-4) – The Huskers are playing well, but the O is such a liability at 49th in KP.
12. Zags (28-3) – The Zags could not take care of St. Mary’s in Moraga. Maybe they are not as good as we thought.
13. Texas Tech (22-7) – I counted out Tech after JT Toppin got hurt, but they took out Iowa State and are playing really balanced on O – 9th on KP.
14. Vandy (22-7) – Again, I’m not a believer – Kentucky took them out by 14 on Saturday.
15. Alabama (22-7) – Bama is Bama – trailing by 14 at Tennessee and got the win. Nate Oates’ team will not quit in any game.

Small Conference Tournaments – Starting This Week

• Horizon League – Starts Monday, 3/2 – Title Game Tuesday, 3/10 at 6 PM Central (ESPN) – No clearly dominant team, but Wright State is on top.
• Sun Belt – Starts Tuesday, 3/3 Title Game Monday, 3/9 at 6 PM Central (TBD) – There are 5 teams that can win this bid.
• Patriot League – Starts Tuesday, 3/3 – Title Game Wednesday, 3/11 at 6 PM (CBSSN) – Navy is really good this year.
• ASUN – Starts Wednesday, 3/4 – Title Game Sunday, 3/8 at 1 PM Central (ESPN 2) – Austin Peay is the best of the bunch, but dropped 2 of late.
• OVC – Starts Wednesday, 3/4 – Title Game Saturday, 3/7 at 8 PM Central (ESPN 2) – Wide Open race, but first team to punch a ticket.
• NEC – Starts Wednesday, 3/4 – Title Game Tuesday, 3/10 at 6 PM Central (ESPN 2) – LIU, the Sharks are the top team.
• Big South – Starts Wednesday, 3/4 – Title Game Sunday, 3/8 at 11 AM Central (ESPN 2) – High Point is really good.
• Summit League – Starts Wednesday, 3/4 – Title Game Sunday, 3/8 at 8 PM Central (CBSSN) – North Dakota State is a tough team.
• Missouri Valley – Starts Thursday, 3/5 – Title Game Sunday, 3/8 at 11 AM Central (CBS) – Belmont is the best of this grouping.
• MAAC – Starts Thursday, 3/5 – Title Game Tuesday, 3/10 at 8 PM Central (ESPN 2) – Watch for Merrimack.
• WCC – Starts Thursday, 3/5 – Title Game Wednesday, 3/10 at 8 PM Central (ESPN) – Zags, St. Mary’s or Santa Clara – one of those 3.
• CAA – Starts Friday, 3/6 – Title Game Tuesday, 3/10 at 6 PM Central (CBSSN) – UNC Wilmington is a really good team.
• SoCon – Starts Friday, 3/6 – Title Game Monday, 3/9 at 6 PM Central (TBD) – East Tennessee State is on top.
• AmEast – Starts Saturday, 3/7 – Title Game Saturday, 3/14 at 10 AM Central (ESPN 2) – UMBC is the top team
• Big Sky – Starts Saturday, 3/7 – Title Game Wednesday, 3/11 at 10:30 PM Central (ESPN 2) – Watch for Portland State.

Bubble Watch – February 27th – Lunardi

I’m going to be a little tighter this week, as with the conference tournaments will determine more than this week. Lunardi will likely update this today (3/3).

Last Four In

• Auburn (15-14, 6-10 SEC, 40 KP, 38 Net) – Please take this team out of the tournament discussion. They are riding off their early season and in a complete tailspin now.
• TCU (19-10, 9-7 Big 12, 49 KP, 45 Net) – The Horned Frogs are on a roll. They should be in now and move up on Lunardi’s next version.
• Santa Clara (24-7, 15-3 WCC, 37 KP, 40 Net) – The Broncos should make it, but they need to get to the WCC Semis at a minimum.
• Indiana (17-12, 8-10 Big Ten, 43 KP, 41 Net) – The Hoosiers are really going to need to win games in the B10 tourney to get back inside with the Buckeyes getting the Purdue win. Lunardi should put them Out on the next pass.

First Four Out

• California (20-9, 8-8 ACC, 73 KP, 64 Net) – The Bears are right on the cusp, but need to win out this week. .500 in the ACC isn’t good enough.
• New Mexico (22-7, 13-5 MWC, 46 KP, 42 Net) – The Lobos won the showdown with the Aztecs which puts them in this week on the next version.
• Ohio State (18-11, 10-8 Big Ten, 35 KP, 34 Net) – The Buckeyes got that signature win over Purdue on Sunday that should keep them on the right side of the Bubble. They will move up.
• USC (18-11, 7-11 Big Ten, 67 KP, 63 Net) – The Trojans are falling fast, so it boils down to next week in Chicago. Otherwise they are out.

Final Week Matchups

• 24 Vandy at 23 Tennessee (-2, 142.5 Total – estimate) – Saturday, 3/7 at 1 PM Central on ESPN – The battle of Tennessee takes one more round. The Vols have been playing better than Vandy, but they tend to blow big leads – like against Alabama. I do not love them in a favorite role, but I think they are better than the Commodores. Tennessee wins, Cover -2, Over 142.5.
• 17 UNC at 1 Duke (-8.5, 146.5 Total – estimate) – Saturday, 3/7 at 5:30 PM Central on ESPN – Duke has lost only 2 games this season, and one was in Chapel Hill against these Heels. They will play in Cameron this time, and I don’t think it will be pretty with or without Caleb Wilson on the floor. Duke’s D has been next level since that loss. Duke wins, Covers -8.5, Under 146.5.
• 10 Texas Tech at BYU (+2.5, 155.5 Total – estimate) – Saturday, 3/7 at 9:30 PM Central on ESPN – Tech has been really good without Toppin, and they may be able to secure a 3 Seed if they continue to win. BYU will need to rebound the basketball, but the new Tech tries to outscore you. That is right up the Cougars alley. I like BYU to run with Tech in this one, BYU wins, Covers +2.5 and the score to be high (Over).
• 8 Michigan State at 3 Michigan (-7.5, 149.5 Total – estimate) – Sunday, 3/8 at 4:30 PM Central on CBS – Can Sparty continue to roll against their rival? I’m not sure. I love how State is playing D right now, but they struggled against the Michigan size in the first match up. Plus, the guards outplayed Fears and company, despite the big comeback. I like the Wolverines to win this one, Cover -7.5, Over 149.5.

Let the Madness begin.

Wegs