College Hoops: 4 Weeks to Madness

If you are like me and you need something else to watch besides Curling, then it’s a fine time to get ready for your March Madness bracket now. We are just 4 weeks from the Madness.

College Basketball Catch Up

• Important Dates
  • Conference Tournaments – March 3rd to March 15th
  • Selection Sunday – 3/15/2026
  • First Four 3/17 and 3/18/2026
  • Full Tournament – 3/19/2026
  • Final Four – Saturday, April 4th
  • Championship Game – Monday, April 6th
• High Quality Basketball: Many can criticize how college sports are today with the transfer portal and NIL. However, the clear result in college basketball is a much better product on the court. Scoring is way up across the nation, as teams are simply better offensively. With NIL and the transfers, there are no clear powerhouses anymore. It allows traditionally big schools that may be good at football to also compete at a high level in basketball. So, yes, the kids are getting paid crazy sums of money, and there has been controversy like with Alabama’s F Charles Bediako – who was in the NBA G-League, returned to Alabama with his eligibility. Now, he has been deemed ineligible. There are also foreign players who played internationally, professionally in college now, which has not been challenged yet. Regardless, the result is really high level competition and players are staying in college for the most part.
• Year of the Freshmen: The new NCAA Basketball with the transfer portal and NIL money means that colleges can attract top talent. No more players going over to Europe to avoid college. No more super teams where one team has all the young guns – the Fab Five. Most big programs can draw the best freshmen in the country, and this year we have at least amazing frosh at a ton of programs. Here are just a few that are making teams better.
  • F Cameron Boozer, Duke – He is the favorite for College Player of the Year, and he is a great player. He is the son of former NBA all star, Carlos Boozer, who has both Cam and Cadyn at Duke this year. Cam averages 22.8 PPG, but he is a gifted passer out of post and even if asked to handle as a point forward.
  • F AJ Dybantsa, BYU – The potential #1 pick in the NBA draft is a very dynamic scorer and creator at the forward position – currently leading the nation on scoring at 24.4 PPG.
  • G Darryn Peterson, Kansas – The other potential #1 pick has battled some injuries and being handled with kid gloves by HC Bill Self, but he can play. He has hit some big shots, and even in his absence in a lot of games, the Jayhawks are contenders again.
  • G Keaton Wagler, Illinois – A very dynamic guard who has already gone for over 40 points at Purdue, a Top 10 team. Kid can really play.
  • F Koa Peat and G Brayden Burries, Arizona – This dynamic duo is leading scoring for the high ranking Wildcats. Peat has an injury he is dealing with.
  • F Caleb Wilson, UNC – A really tough to guard forward who leads the Heels in scoring, although broke his hand last week.
  • G Mikel Brown, Louisville – 2nd on his team in scoring, but a big guard who can take over a game.
  • G Darius Acuff, Arkansas – Coach Calipari has found another dominant guard that is NBA-ready – he’s averaging 21.2 PPG.
• No Dominant Team – Arizona did go undefeated up until last week, but dropped 2 straight and sit at #4 in the AP now. Michigan has been great all year, too, as has Duke. However, UConn, Florida and Iowa State have all been right in the top of the list at various times this year. It is safe to say that at least 9 teams have a real shot a winning the title this year.
• Great Games Every Single Week – As I stated, there are incredible games nearly every night. The Big 12, Big Ten and SEC all have multiple Top 25 matchups each week. The league games on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday usually have two heavyweights duking it out.

Like past years, each week, we will review the matchups for the week, run through the KenPom ratings and go over the Bubble through Bracketology.

KenPom Review

1. Michigan (24-1) – The top team in KenPom with Top 4 on O and #1 on D – the Wolverines are big, deep and have good guards.
2. Duke (24-2) – The Top ACC team has lost twice when leading big, but Boozer and the D are excellent – 2nd in KP, but still score easily 7th in KP on O.
3. Arizona (23-2) – Just another week in the Big 12 with losses to Kansas and Texas Tech – they are 11th on O and 3rd on D. The main concern is they do not shoot a ton from behind the 3 point line.
4. Houston (23-3) – The 2025 runner up is back with no hangover – they have a lead Senior G in Emmanuel Sharp, but also have a top Frosh G Kingston Flemings – which provides a great one-two punch (9th on O) with that great D – 5th in KP.
5. Florida (19-6) – The Gators lost their 3 guards from the title team, but the front line is still there. Florida’s D is 4th in KP, and if they get guard scoring, then they can get to the Final Four – 17 on O.
6. Illinois (21-5) – The top rated O in KP with Wagler and a big frontline – the Illini are really good, but the 28th rated D is somewhat concerning.
7. Iowa State (23-3) – The Cyclones are a really tough team. They defend in the half court like no one else (6th in KP), and their 3 point shooting is excellent – 14th in KP on O.
8. Purdue (21-4) – The Boilers were right with Michigan most of the year, but hit a skid a couple weeks back with their experienced lineup. They have righted the ship and like Illinois can light it up – 2nd in KP on O. Statistically, they are 19th on D, but they have had lapses in those losses.
9. UConn (24-2) – The Big East is not what it has been in the past, but in the preseason the Huskies were excellent. They defend (11th in KP), and their deliberate Offense wears down opponents (22nd in KP).
10. Zags (25-2) – Prior to a recent surprise loss to Portland, their only other loss was to Michigan albeit by 40 points. Zags are 19th on O and 13th on D.

Bubble Watch

Bracketology is in full effect. Every day yields moves in and out of the tournament. It’s important to watch these teams for your first round matchups. This year, I’m going to keep it simple and report out based on Joe Lunardi at ESPN. This list is as of Tuesday, 2/17/2026.

Last Four Byes

• Georgia (17-8, 5-7 SEC) – The Bulldogs have hit the tough stretch of the SEC. They started strong, but are in jeopardy of missing the Dance. They need to win two of these games: at Kentucky 2/17, Texas 2/21, at Vandy 2/25 and/or Bama on 3/3.
• UCF (17-7, 6-6 Big 12) – The Golden Knights got a huge win over Texas Tech earlier this month, but they will need to continue to get wins in the rugged Big 12 to stay on the right side of the Bubble. They have lost 3 straight.
• Texas A&M (17-8 , 7-5 SEC) – The Aggies were coasting in the SEC to start, but now have hit the dog days losing 4 straight and on the Bubble. They need to find some quality wins down the stretch – at Arkansas 2/25, Texas 2/28 or Kentucky 3/3.
• USC (18-7, 7-7 B10) – The Trojans actually have been more consistent that the Bruins, but they have to keep winning to be In being .500 in conference.

Last Four In

• TCU (16-9, 6-6 Big 12) – No team in this group has bigger wins – Florida, Wisconsin and Iowa State, but the peaks have come with valleys (Colorado, Utah and Notre Dame), too. That’s why they are on the outside right now.
• UCLA (17-8, 9-5 B10) – The Bruins still struggle on the road in the Big Ten. It may prepare them for the tourney, but now they are on the brink – home vs. Illinois 2/21 or Nebraska 3/3 may be a must.
• San Diego State (18-6, 12-2 MWC) – You have to love the consistency of the Aztecs – every year they play D (14th in KP), but that O is rough at times.
• Santa Clara (22-6 , 13-2 WCC) – The Broncos are still in from their start in the WCC, but they missed on solidifying their position losing to the Zags this weekend at home. They really need to beat St. Mary’s on the road in the next matchup on 2/25.

First Four Out

• Missouri 17-8, 7-5 SEC) – The Tigers like Texas bounce in and out of the Bubble every single week.
• New Mexico (19-6, 10-4 MWC) – The Lobos have some good guards, so they can be dangerous in the Field. Yet, losing at home against Utah State (the Mountain West leader) knocked them out for now – they play at Utah State on 3/7.
• Ohio State (16-9, 8-6 B10) – The Big Ten schedule is tough. The Buckeyes need to string 2 or 3 in a row, as they tend to alternate wins and losses like Missouri in the SEC.
• Cal (18-8, 6-7 ACC) – Another ACC team on the Bubble, well, not a huge fan of the resume, but they need some road wins in conference. They only really play SMU on 2/25 that should be a tough one.

Next Four Out

• VA Tech (17-9, 6-7 ACC) – Tech can win big games. They went to Clemson last week and won by 11, but lost to Florida State over the weekend. Wrong side of the Bubble.
• West Virginia (16-9 , 7-5 Big 12) – That rugged Big 12 will always have a shot to qualify another team.
• VCU (20-6, 11-2 A10) – Now, here is a team that is playing good ball, but in the Atlantic 10, it is hard to get quality wins to move up.
• Seton Hall (18-8, 8-7 Big East) – There are only 3 Big East teams in the Field right now. The Pirates need a win over Nova, St. Johns or UConn to bust in.

Games to Watch

• 1 Michigan at 7 Purdue (+2.5, 157.5 Total – actual) – Tuesday, 2/17 at 5:30 PM Central on Peacock – A battle at the top of the Big Ten – if anyone is going to catch the Wolverines, the Boilermakers needs to take this one. Perhaps Michigan will be looking ahead to Saturday, so I think Purdue will play well. Not sure they can win this one but I like the spot for them. Should be a fun one to watch. I’ll take Purdue to pull the upset and cover +2.5 – Over 157.5.
• 20 Arkansas at 25 Alabama (-3.5 , 181.5 Total – actual) – Wednesday, 2/18 at 6 PM Central on ESPN – Two fast paced teams face off in the SEC in this game. I think Arkansas is a cut above, so I like them to win outright and cover the estimated spread. Under 181.5 – that’s an insane total.
• 4 Arizona at 2 Houston (-2.5 , 145.5 Total – estimate) – Saturday, 2/21 at 2 PM Central on ABC – Welcome to the Big 12 – nearly every game puts Top 25 teams against each other, but Top 5!!! Arizona needs to bounce back, but I fear the Koa Peat injury slows them down. I like Houston to win, as they dropped that big lead in Ames on Monday night.
• 1 Michigan vs. 3 Duke (-1.5, 148.5 Total – actual) – Saturday, 2/21 at 5:30 PM Central on ESPN – This game is on a neutral court in Washington, DC, so no Cameron Crazies here. I like Michigan to win this game. They have the frontline to slow down Boozer. The guards for the Wolverines should handle the Duke D, and they shoot better than Duke. Michigan wins, Covers +1.5, Total Over 148.5 – it should be a show.
• 6 Iowa State at 23 BYU (+4.5, 149.5 Total – estimate) – Saturday, 2/21 at 9:30 PM Central on ESPN – The Cyclones get the Cougars without Richie Saunders who was the 2nd leading scorer after Dybantsa. I want BYU to win it, but I do not think they can. Iowa State wins, Covers -4.5, Under 149.5.
• 21 Louisville at 16 UNC (-3, 147.5 Total – estimate) – Monday, 2/23 at 6 PM Central on ESPN – The Heels have better players, but F Caleb Wilson’s hand looms large and will miss the game. Can they keep up with the Cardinals? I think G Mikel Brown will put on a show, and the Heels may win, but not cover this one. I’ll take Louisville to win, Cover +3, Total Over 147.5.
• 2 Houston at 8 Kansas (-2,5 , 140.5 Total – estimate) – Monday, 2/23 at 8 PM Central on ESPN – Houston was ranked 2nd on Monday, played 6th ranked Iowa State – lost a tough one, then 4th ranked Arizona on Saturday. Now, they turn around and have to play in Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence at the 8th ranked Jayhawks – wow. The Big 12 is no joke. I love Houston, but Iowa State, Arizona then Kansas. That’s a ridiculous week – I think Kansas wins this one, Covers -2.5, Under 140.5.

Time to jump in and enjoy this special season.

Wegs