NFL: Upside Down Week 10/Week 11 Preview

Well, it was a weird week that began and ended kinda a same way.

NFL Week 10 Recap

• Saints Beat CAR – The Saints have been awful, but apparently, a second start for QB Tyler Shough (282 yards passing, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) made a difference as he hit multiple long completions – WR Chris Olave (5 catches, 104 yards, 1 TD) made some great plays – plus the D played great, as the Saints got their 2nd win, 17-7 for their first road win.
• Fins Beat BUF – Forget that the Bills had won 14 of 15 games over MIA with QB Josh Allen starting. Forget that MIA sent a great pass rusher to PHI. Nope, the Fins destroyed the Bills as RB Devon Achane (22 carries, 174 yards, 2 TDs, plus 51 yards receiving) took 2 to the house for an easy win, 30-13, over the Bills who are now well behind the Pats in the AFC East.
• Pats For Real? – The Pats had not played very many good teams since beating BUF in Week 5, but at TB was a legit test. Well, QB Drake Maye (270 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) continued to push the ball downfield and rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson (14 carries, 147 yards, 2 TDs) broke 2 huge runs that were the difference in their 28-23 win for their 7th straight.
• Texans Major Comeback – The Texans were staring down the barrel of the end of their season – JAC up 29-10 and looking like their 6th loss and sweep by the Jags. QB Davis Mills (292 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT and 1 TD rushing) was not willing to quit – a TD to WR Jayden Mills (2 Pt Conversion); a TED to TE Dalton Schultz (missed 2 Pt Conversion); then Mills ran one in for a TD to take the lead (missed 2 Pt Conversion); and finally a fumble return as time expired to score 26 points in the 4th for the win, 36-29. It ain’t over yet.
• Rams Crushed 49ers – The injuries for the 49ers started to show in this one, as QB Matthew Stafford threw for 280 yards, 4 TDs en route to 42 points in this 42-26 win for the Rams.
• Chargers Hammer PIT – The PIT D tried to stay close early, but the O was just awful. For LAC, DE Khalil Mack’s return may have helped, as the D limited the Steelers to 221 yards total. The Chargers won 25-10, and now the Steelers lead in the AFC North is just one game.
• Eagles Gutted Out a Win – Not a pretty game to watch, as both Ds played at a super high level. The Eagles were able to build a 10-0 lead after a big play from RB Saquon Barkley’s 41 yard (Barkley had 101 combined yards) reception setting up the TD to WR Devonta Smith (4 catches, 69 yards, 1 TD). Still, GB answered with a TD by RB Josh Jacobs (21 carried, 74 yards, 1 TD, plus 33 yards receiving). However, PHI failed to run out the clock late, and gave GB a shot at a game tying FG that was way left. PHI won, 10-7.

Predictions: S/U 3-1; ATS 2-2; Totals 1-3 – Not great on totals, but TB was the only real miss here.

Fantasy Football – Trade Targets

It’s down to the wire in your league for the trade deadline. We already had one guy who was on my list go off, so too late there – TreVeyon Henderson. That is the type of guy you are targeting – a younger player who is finally getting an opportunity who can break out down the stretch.

Trade Targets

• QB – Jordan Love, GB – After the meh performance against PHI, Love will be down. He gets to play the Bears in weeks 14 and 16 plus this week at NYG. Once Jayden Reed comes back, he should be back to great (losing Kraft has hurt him).
• RB – Bucky Irving, TB – he will likely not play in Week 11, so he is a playoff run add. So, if you are in the playoffs, I would target him now. The Bucs have been living with the pass, but I expect that to change once Irving is back.
• RB – Derrick Henry, BAL – he is a Top 10 RB, yes, but someone drafted him in the Top 10. He plays CLE in Week 11, which could be tough sledding, but he plays the Jets and Bengals twice, which will be juicy. If you can pry him away, then do it.
• RB – RJ Harvey, DEN – This is more speculative, but KC will be a tough matchup, then the Bye. I think he will get the ball late at WAS and Vegas, which should be great. Then tougher Ds in the playoffs, but he can catch the ball.
• WR – Zay Flowers, BAL – See above on the schedule. He is 20th at the position, so not burning it up, but I expect the Ravens to just throttle people down the stretch.
• TE – Colston Loveland, CHI – He has flashed in two straight weeks, so maybe late, but I like his prospects down the stretch.

The other side of that is who you should give up or use as bait. They may be great, but their value may drop given some circumstances. If you can sell high, then do it for other positions of weakness.

• QB – Josh Allen, BUF – Maybe a week too late, but something is wrong in BUF. That team can’t string together 2 good performances. He may turn it around, but weeks 13 and 14 do look good. I think he is hurt, as I don’t see him being as clear to run like last year.
• RB – Breece Hall, NYJ – He has had back to back big games (12th at the position), which is great, but the Jets are going nowhere. The schedule shows “favorable” matchups at BAL and home versus ATL and MIA, I don’t think those will be favorable game scripts (maybe MIA). I’d sell him now.
• RB – JK Dobbins, DEN – He is a little banged up, and see above, I think Harvey gets more PT down the stretch.
• WR – Emeka Egbuka, TB – he has been great. He may still be great down the stretch, but at some point Godwin, McMillan and RB Bucky Irving (see above) will come back and the offense will be more balanced. You can get a very good RB for him.
• WR – Quentin Johnson, LAC – he is not a flashy as Egbuka, but Johnson has played really well this year. Still, McConkey is the #1 target, and soon Hampton will return flipping the offense balance.
• TE Travis Kelce, KC – He has a brutal playoff schedule – HOU, LAC, TEN are 4th, 6th and 8th against the TE in Weeks 14-16.

This will be my last Fantasy Football content. Good luck!

Wegs Index After Week 10

The top of the group has not changed much, but we have some new names filtering in.

1. Rams 7-2 (5.00 Index) – The Rams continue to operate at the highest level. If they were in the NFC East or South, then they would be a bet on team for the Super Bowl. I may still sprinkle on them at +700 and +325 for NFC. Big game vs. SEA.
2. Lions 6-3 (6.00) – Lions crushed the beat up Commanders, so let’s see how they play against GB, MIN and CHI down the stretch.
3. Colts 7-2 (6.83) – Colts drop as their D has still not been great. I expect them to drop further after their Bye – at KC, HOU, at JAC, at SEA, SF, JAC and at HOU. I see at least 4 losses, so if they drop one to the Jags, then it will be interesting.
4. Chiefs 5-4 (6.83) – Chiefs on Bye need to get a running game.
5. Seahawks 7-2 (8.00) – The Seahawks are really the better bet at +135 to win the NFC West. If you believe in them, then these odds will improve with a win over the Rams. They are +475 to win the NFC. Like most, do you trust Darnold over Stafford?
6. Texans 4-5 (8.17) – Yep, the Index loves the Texans as much as I do. The AFC South is along shot, but they do play IND twice and should move to .500 at TEN. The Bills and Chiefs are the games that will determine their ultimate fate on the playoffs.

Week 11 Key Match Ups

Byes: Saints, Colts

• Bucs at Bills (-5.5, 48.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/16 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – The Bills couldn’t have looked worse on Sunday in the rain at MIA, so of course, they will bounce back, right? Why are they favored by -5.5 against a good team? I can’t see it. Sure, they can win the game, but that is too many points. TB should be able to run the ball some, and besides DET, they have been within one score in every game. BUF wins, TB Covers +5.5, Total Over 48.5.
• Seahawks at Rams (-2.5, 48.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/16 at 3:05 PM Central on FOX – The battle for the NFC West is here. The Rams are playing great, but you can’t deny how good SEA has played, especially on the road. The spread is probably right, but I have the Rams a little better factoring in home field advantage. The TOs by SEA trouble me, so I do like the Rams to win, Cover -2.5, Total Under 48.5.
• Chiefs at Broncos (+3.5, 44.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/16 at 3:25 PM Central on CBS – The battle for the AFC West is here. The Broncos have the lead, but it is hard to feel 100% confident in them. As I say to everyone on the Broncos, as Bo Nix goes, DEN goes. He has turned the ball over way too much. He played very well against KC in 2024, but off the Bye, HC Andy Reid is unreal. If the Broncos can run the ball, then I’ll be wrong, but I like the Chiefs to win this game and Cover -3.5, Total Over 44.5.
• Lions at Eagles (-2.5, 47.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/16 at 7:20 PM Central on NBC – A hopeful NFC Championship game here. The Lions have played well on the road this year, unlike other seasons. However, the Eagles additions on D showed up on MNF. So, it is hard to evaluate the Eagles with prior weeks. PHI’s O is still not operating at a high level. For me, the game boils down to can PHI move the ball against the Lions, I think they can. I think PHI stops the run in this one, so they will get he win and Cover -2.5, Total Under 47.5.

I know, I hate taking all favorites, but what can you do.

Enjoy Week 11.

Wegs