NFL: 2024 NFC South Preview

Now, we hit the NFC South, which is an interesting division with a lot of shifting sands.

NFC South Preview

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Coaching Staff: HC Todd Bowles really had a great year in 2023. His D played at a really high level, and the O was surprisingly good with QB Baker Mayfield at the helm. Can they do it again? OC Liam Coen takes over for the departing Dave Canales (CAR HC). Coen is from the McVay tree, although he was the OC at University of Kentucky last year. So, I would expect a lot of play action and spreading the ball around. On D, Kacy Rodgers and Larry Foote are listed, but Bowles calls his own Defense. The same chaotic blitz packages and tight coverage will continue.
• Key Departures: Not a lot of turnover at key positions, but LB Devin White (to PHI), OG Matt Feiler (not signed) and DE Pat O’Connor (to DET).
• Key Additions: In the Draft, they added frontline talent in C Graham Barton (1st Rd, Duke), LB Chris Braswell (2nd Rd, Alabama), CB/S Tykee Smith (3rd Rd, Georgia), WR Jalen McMillan (3rd Rd, Washington), RB Bucky Irving (4th Rd, Oregon) and OG Elija Klein (6th Rd, UTEP). In Free Agency, the Bucs filled holes: S Jordan Whitehead (returns from NYJ), CB Bryce Hall (from NYJ) and OG Ben Bredeson (from NYG).
• Team Outlook: The Bucs ran it back by re-signing Baker and WR Mike Evans to go with the same Offense as in 2023 with a different play caller. That seems significant. The D is really the same unit except for the loss of Devin White, but they get the return of Whitehead which should make them even better. The draft gave them some depth. I like the team, if they can keep scoring.
• Prediction: 10-7 – Win the NFC South – the underrated defender of the division.

Atlanta Falcons

• Coaching Staff: HC Raheem Morris was hired after the Falcons parted ways with Arthur Smith (OC in PIT). Morris gets his second shot at HC after being in TB, but he seemed to really get his bearings under McVay as DC for the Rams. The Offense is the big issue – tons of under-utilized talent, and Morris chose OC Zac Robinson also from the Rams staff to join him, so expect McVay principles (see above). DC is Jimmy Lake comes from the Rams, too, so it seems like Morris will call the D with Lake assisting in prep. Hard to say if they can match the Rams’ performance without an Aaron Donald in the middle, but we will see.
• Key Departures: DE Calais Campbell (to MIA), RB Cordarrelle Patterson (from PIT), TE Jonnu Smith (to MIA), CB Jeff Okudah (to HOU), CB Tre Flowers (to JAC), LB Andre Smith (to DEN), WR Mack Hollins (to BUF) and WR Van Jefferson (to PIT).
• Key Additions: In the Draft, despite the free agent QB signing, ATL goes for the future, too with QB Michael Penix Jr. (1st Rd, WAS), DT Ruke Orhorhoro (2nd Rd, Clemson), LB Bralen Trice (3rd Rd, Washington), DE Brandon Dorlus (4th Rd, Oregon) LB JD Bertrand (5th Rd, Notre Dame) and WR Casey Washington (6th Rd, Illinois). Free Agency also made a big splash with QB Kirk Cousins (from MIN), WR Darnell Mooney (from CHI), WR Rondale Moore (traded with AZ) and TE Charlie Woerner (from SF) and OLB James Smith-Williams (from WAS).
• Team Outlook: Look, I was big on ATL in 2023 and got burned, so I’m trying to be cautious here. If Cousins is healthy then there is no reason for this team to not make the playoffs or win this division. The D wasn’t that bad last year, but the O couldn’t score. The upgrade from last year’s QBs to Cousins (or even Penix) is pretty dramatic. I’m just wanting to see it. The entire coaching staff is from the Rams, so can they replicate what McVay and company did on both sides of the ball? Not sure, but the division is not stacked. They will be right there.
• Prediction: 10-7 – I have the Falcons just out of the playoffs and losing this division, but they will have a good shot at both.

New Orleans Saints

• Coaching Staff: HC Dennis Allen returns to run the squad. This will be his last season if he misses the playoffs. OC Klint Kubiak steps in to run the Offense and comes from SF – passing game coordinator, but I would expect a heavy run and play action attack like the 49ers. DC Joe Woods is back running Allen’s D. The aging team needs new blood to compete in the division.
• Key Departures: QB Jameis Winston (to CLE), CB Lonnie Johnson (to HOU), WR Michael Thomas (not signed), OG Andrus Peat (to LVR) and OG Trai Turner (not signed).
• Key Additions: In the Draft, the Saints added only OT Taliese Fuaga (1st Rd, Oregon State), CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (2nd Rd, Alabama), WR Bub Means (5th Rd, Pitt), LB Jaylan Ford (5th Rd, Texas) and DT Khristian Boyd (6th Rd, Northern Iowa). Free Agents added: LB Will Gay (from KC), WR Cedric Wilson (from MIA), DE Chase Young (from SF) and OG Lucas Patrick (from CHI).
• Team Outlook: The Saints were the division leader for almost a decade, but they are in full decline. They will have their moments, but I do not see enough talent to compete with TB or ATL here. Maybe they can get better play with the new OC, but I think it will be a mediocre year for NO.
• Prediction: 7-10 – miss the playoffs and Allen is out.

Carolina Panthers

• Coaching Staff: Another year and another new coach. HC Dave Canales gets the job after doing a great job with TB as OC in one year (SEA before that). They are trusting Canales to “fix” last year’s #1 pick – Bryce Young. Not sure he can. OC Brad Idzik will help Canales call the Offense, as he has followed Canales from SEA to TB to CAR. The D will be called by DC Ejiro Evero, who is a holdover from the last regime. The D wasn’t bad, but not sure Evero should have stayed.
• Key Departures: DE Brian Burns (traded to NYG), TE Hayden Hurst (to LAC), S Vonn Bell (to CIN), OG Justin McCray (not signed), LB Deion Jones (to BUF), CB Shaquill Griffin (to MIN) and WR DJ Chark (to LAC).
• Key Additions: In the Draft, CAR did not have a ton picks, but they did add WR Xavier Legette (1st Rd, South Carolina), LB Trevin Wallace (3rd Rd, Kentucky) and CB Chau Smith-Wade (5th Rd, Washington State). In Free Agency, CAR added OG Damien Lewis (from SEA), OT Robert Hunt (from MIA), LB Josey Jewell (from DEN), WR Diontae Johnson (via trade from PIT), CB Dane Jackson (from BUF), DT A’Shawn Robinson (from NYG), DE Jadeveon Clowney (from BAL) and S Jordan Fuller (from LAR).
• Team Outlook: The full turnover of this roster is an indicator that the Panthers lack talent. Can all these new faces come together and help Young win? I don’t see it. I think they need to take their lumps until they get more wins. Young should improve this season with Canales, but I think they are going to struggle to run the ball and the D does not have enough young guys to make a difference.
• Prediction: 3-14 – probably too harsh for sure, but no more than 6 wins this year.

Next week, we will hit the West divisions to wrap up the previews.

Wegs