NFL: 2024 AFC South Preview

We move the the South divisions this week. Maybe not as strong as the North divisions, but some interesting battles for sure.

AFC South Preview

Houston Texans

• Coaching Staff: HC Demeco Ryans returns at the helm after an incredible first season in HOU. In my opinion, he should have won COY, but still. OC Bobby Slowik had a great season, and QB CJ Stroud was great. I would expect another good year, but it is a much tougher schedule. At DC, also returns, and this is where the team can improve over the 2023 team. Another year in the system with young players should yield better results.
• Key Departures: RB Devin Singletary (to NYG), DT Sheldon Rankins (to CIN), C Scott Quessenberry (not signed), and S Kareem Jackson (to BUF).
• Key Additions: In the Draft, LT Blake Fisher (2nd Rd, Notre Dame), CB Kamari Lassiter (2nd Rd, Georgia) and S Calen Bullock (3rd Rd, USC). In Free Agency, HOU added some big names in RB Joe Mixon (via trade with CIN), WR Stefon Diggs (via trade with BUF). They also signed DE Danielle Hunter (from MIN), DT Mario Edwards (from SEA), DT Folorunso Fatukasi (from JAC), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (from TEN), DT Tim Settle (from BUF), CB Jeff Okudah (from ATL) on D.
• Team Outlook: On paper, the team is better than the 2023 team that went 10-7, but that was on a last place schedule. The December schedule is brutal – at Jags (12/1), MIA at home (12/15), at KC (12/21) and BAL (12/25) at home before closing at TEN on 1/5. So, I believe in Stroud and this upgraded D, but they need to be 8-4 or better entering those last 5 games. They do get a late Bye, so that may help. Sky is the limit for the Offense now with Mixon and Diggs along with the young WRs, and the D should be better. I still think it will be a rough finish for them.
• Prediction: 10-7 – AFC South Winner, but it will be close as the end of their schedule is rough.

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Coaching Staff: HC Doug Pederson is back after a disappointing finish to the 2023 season. They fell off a cliff and lost the division to HOU after starting 8-3 losing 5 of their last 6 games. QB Trevor Lawrence was banged up to finish, but they paid him a huge extension. OC Press Taylor is back with an Offense that has some new faces. Still, the O wasn’t really the issue. On D, DC Ryan Nielsen steps in coming from ATL, as Mike Caldwell did not get the results needed.
• Key Departures: The biggest name was WR Calvin Ridley (to AZ), but the losses were not as notable as the additions.
• Key Additions: Via the Draft, the Jags got a couple of key pieces: WR Brian Thomas (1st Rd, LSU), DT Maason Smith (2nd Rd, LSU), CB Jarrian Jones (3rd Rd, Florida State), OT Javon Foster (4th Rd, Missouri), and CB De’Antre Prince (5th Rd, Ole Miss). In Free Agency, the Jags added QB Mac Jones (via trade with NE), WR Gabe Davis (from BUF), WR Devin Duvernay (from BAL), DE Arik Armstead (from SF), C Mitch Morse (from BUF), CB Ronald Darby (from BAL), and CB Darnell Savage (from GB)
• Team Outlook: The Jags fell off at the end of last year. With a healthy Lawrence, and the upgraded D, they should be right there for the division. I think they have a good shot to win it, but in the AFC 11 wins gets you in the playoffs, so I have them on the outside looking in. Certainly, they could bounce back playing an easier schedule than last year.
• Prediction: 10-7 – I have them missing the playoffs to BUF, but it will come down to the final weeks.

Indianapolis Colts

• Coaching Staff: HC Shane Steichen had a really good first year. In fact, many believed if the Colts would have won the division in 2023 that he could have gotten COY. Still, his leadership was key in their season. OC Jim Bob Cooter is not just the best name in the NFL, but he somehow had a capable offense with QB Gardiner Minshew and the many injuries on the team. So, if QB Anthony Richardson can stay healthy, who knows what they can accomplish. On D, DC Gus Bradley returns to run an underrated group. So, not seeing a huge increase in wins here given the scheme.
• Key Departures: QB Gardiner Minshew (to LVR), RB Zack Mass (to CIN), and DE Jake Martin (to CHI).
• Key Additions: In the Draft, the Colts added a lot of players: DE Laiatu Latu (1st Rd, UCLA), WR Adonai Mitchell (2nd Rd, Texas), OT Matt Goncalves (3rd, Texas), OG Tanor Bortolini (4th Rd, Wisconsin), LB Jaylon Carlies (5th Rd, Missouri), CB Jaylin Simpson (5th Rd, Auburn), WR Anthony Gould (5th Rd, Wisconsin) and CB Micah Abraham (6th Rd, Marshall). Free Agency was minimal in QB Joe Flacco (from CLE) and DT Raekwon Davis (from MIA).
• Team Outlook: The Colts had an incredible 2023, but I just don’t see it in 2024. They have a young team, which is good, but so much is riding on Anthony Richardson’s health. Can Flacco step in and do what he did in 2023? I think that is a big gamble. So, the Colts have the biggest variability in record in the division. I just feel like so many close games last year will not work out in 2024. On D, the team was strong, but not over the top good. The Colts need all their young picks to play well.
• Prediction: 7-10 – I think they can be the spoiler in the division, if Richardson plays 17 games. However, that’s not likely.

Tennessee Titans

• Coaching Staff: The great HC Mike Vrabel was out after 2023 after a good run, and surprisingly, he was not hired elsewhere. TEN turns to new HC Brian Callahan who comes from CIN (their former OC). Callahan tapped Nick Holz as his OC from the Jags. On D, Dennard Wilson came from the Ravens. I’m not sure the schemes here, but definitely changes on both sides of the ball are coming.
• Key Departures: RB Derrick Henry (to BAL), QB Ryan Tannehill (not signed), CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (to AZ), S Terrell Edmunds (to JAC), OT Chris Hubbard (to SF), C Aaron Brewer (to MIA) and OT Andre Dillard (to GB).
• Key Additions: In the Draft, the Titans added some dudes – OT JC Latham (1st Rd, Alabama), DT T’Vondre Sweat (2nd Rd, Texas), LB Cedric Gray (4th Rd, UNC), CB Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (5th Rd, Louisville), WR Jha’Quan Jackson (6th Rd, Tulane) and LB Jaylen Harrell (7th Rd, Michigan). Free Agents: RB Tony Pollard (from DAL), WR Calvin Ridley (from JAC), WR Tyler Boyd (from CIN), CB L’Jarius Sneed (via trade from KC), OT Leroy Watson (via trade from CLE), OG Saahdiq Charles (from WAS), CB Chidobe Awuzie (from CIN), LB Kenneth Murray (from LAC), S Quandre Diggs (from SEA), C Lloyd Cushenberry (from DEN) and QB Mason Rudolph (from PIT).
• Team Outlook: The changing of the guard means the changing of a lot of personnel. The King Henry era is over. Callahan and Holz will try to unleash QB Will Levis with Ridley and WR De’Andre Hopkins plus RBs Pollard and Tyjae Spears out of the backfield, but I’m not sold on Levis. Maybe he improves over his rookie year, but the division is going to be tough. The D is where I’m more concerned. They signed a lot of guys to fill gaps and that takes time to gel under a new system. DT Jeffery Simmons gets help with the rookie, Sweat, but I think they will struggle this year. TEN is an over team for me.
• Prediction: 3-14 – I’m really harsh here, so look for a couple more wins in the final records.

Next stop the NFC South.

Wegs