Alright, so we have gone over what Fantasy Football is. We’ve talked about some terminology to understand what people are talking about out there. Now, it’s time to dig into the most important part of any league, that is The Draft.
What is The Draft?
The Draft, as stated before in Fantasy 101, is the way the league selects players to get on to your team. As I wrote before, there are a variety of ways to Draft, but the most important thing is to understand how your league will do it. Once again, go over the league rules. The important things to understand are the following:
- Format: Is the selection process a “Snake” draft where the picks in each round reverse every other round? Is it an Auction Draft where people bid on players based on a budget?
- Draft Order: When are you selecting in the Draft? Most leagues determine the order a few days to weeks prior to the Draft itself, so you can have a strategy. If not, then you will need to be prepared from a variety of positions in the order of a normal Snake Draft.
- Rounds: How many rounds is the Draft? This will determine how many players at each position you need to be familiar with.
- Position/Roster Limits: Does the league set a maximum or minimum number of players for each position? Or can you draft 8 RBs? It makes a difference in determining your strategy.
- Time Limit: Does your Draft have a time limit per pick? If you are doing the Draft online, it will likely have a time limit. This is important because you should be as prepared as possible to make your selections or comfortable with your rankings if the Auto-Pick feature kicks in.
Now, besides the actual Draft itself (the selections), the reason why The Draft is the most important part of the season really is because this may be the only time you will see or interact with the entire league all year. Drafts should be fun. There should be good food, alcohol and maybe some specific traditions your league has set up. I’ve been to drafts that had strippers. I’ve been to drafts that were done at lake houses. I’ve done drafts that were also part of other competitions. I know people that travel for the Draft to Vegas or some other venue. The Draft is really just an excuse to get together with your friends and talk trash while having fun. So, get creative, create a punishment for last year’s loser. Take pictures of your drunk friends during the Draft and post them on your League page. This really is what Fantasy Football is all about. Having fun.
Draft Terms To Know
ADP – Average Draft Position – The single most important concept in Drafting is ADP. I would say at least 90% of Drafts are Snake Drafts now. So, the draft order or ranking is important in determining who will be available for you to select at your draft position. One way of getting ahead of your competition is understanding ADP. ADP or Average Draft Position is based on the website you are using. So, before your Draft, go to ESPN, Yahoo or CBS and pull the ADP for your league format. ADP is how all the drafts tracked by that website slate a given player based on when they were selected in other drafts. Here is an example:
On CBS in their standard format, the #1 player is Todd Gurley who has a rating of 1.35, while Le’Veon Bell is at 2.47. That means that on average Gurley is taken 1st and Bell is taken 2nd. There are thousands of drafts held on CBS, so they are just putting their data out there for you to gauge the popularity of the players.
Now, why is this important? Most average players will follow the trends. They will follow the ADP, whether they know it or not. Some people will just literally pull the ADP and use that as their Draft list on Draft Day. Others will use the rankers on that given site, which is fine, but the rankers indirectly influence that site’s ADP, since people will just use those ranks to make their picks. ADP is a very good determinant of how your league will draft. So, if you want to know who your league will draft in the 20th position, go to the ADP list and that is a good bet it will be close.
Value Based Drafting – Now, as I wrote in Fantasy 102, you need to come up with YOUR list of players. Do not just go with the ADP list or a simple rankings list. Do your own research and figure out players that you like. With that said, the best way to be successful in Fantasy Football is by Value Based Drafting. VBD is simply taking a player when they should be taken, not before. Put another way, using ADP, you know when most players are being taken. If for some reason, a player is “falling” in the Draft, meaning they are not going in the ADP range expected, then that player is presenting as a “Value” or coming to you as a “Discount.” The more of these players you can get on your team, the better you will be. ADP is data aggregated over thousands of drafts, but your Draft is individual. We all have league mates that love a certain team or player, and they will pick them regardless of what the lists say. Every time that happens, you just got a chance at a better player. Let’s look at an example.
In my league, generally, people take Quarterbacks early. In fact, last year was the 1st year in a decade that a QB was not taken in the 1st round (and usually the Top 5). So, if you look at the ADP, the 1st QB off the board is Aaron Rodgers (CBS 21.18). If he was to go in the Top 10 picks, then that would be Negative Value. His ADP is 21, and he is selected at #10. All that means is another position player will fall a slot as Rodgers is taken. So, you will have the opportunity of selecting someone with a lower ADP at a later point in the Draft (equals value).
Now, my experience is that in the First 3-4 rounds, most of the picks are extremely predictable within a certain range. After Round 4 is when ADP and Value Based Drafting come in more often. You will see players who should be selected in Round 5 drop all the way to Round 8 and other league mates who will “Reach” for a player in Round 5 that should go in Round 7 or 8. Those differences are what make your team stronger or weaker depending on where you end up.
So, the general rule here is do not “Reach” for a player unless you have are 100% certain you want them or rank them higher than the other guys you could select. Waiting is a good thing.
Position Tiers – Now, as I said before, you need to do your own rankings. However, make it easy on yourself, put players from a given position group together in your rankings. For example, it is wise to put the Top 5 RBs together in one group on your Draft list. The group of RBs at the top may grow to 7 or 8, but once you see a drop off, in terms of your projections or ADP for a given position, then switch to another position. I like to have the Top 5 or 6 RBs at the top of my list, then the Top 3-4 WRs. I alternate like this for a while and then will start to add TEs and QBs to the mix.
The concept behind tiering players is that you would be happy drafting any of these players of this group at that time of the Draft. Also, once you see that your tier of players is diminishing and it is your selection, then be sure to grab a player in that group before it runs out. Tiering also helps you do the pre-work. As you start to rank players in a given group, it will make sense to have them “Up a Tier” or “Down a Tier.” I recommend using CBS’s research here, as Dave Richard always updates his position tiers. Here is his link:
As the Draft continues, you will see that most league mates will abandon their list or worse just start picking based on positions to fill their rosters. If you continue with the Tiers, then you may find players slip down in the Draft and you can reap the benefits of Value Based Drafting because it is always better to take more WR and RB than any other position. More on this later.
Specific Strategies and Recommendations
There are a multitude of ways to approach a draft. I’ll outline a couple of common strategies and then give you my suggestion for any draft regardless of format.
RB Heavy – The old school way of doing things was to draft the Top RBs as early and as often as possible. You would see teams drafting 3 or even 4 RBs before taking another position, regardless of projected points, ADP or otherwise. In recent years, this strategy is not as common. In fact, the last couple of years, RBs have really been de-valued in many ways. The heavy passing systems in the NFL coupled with the way teams do not use one RB exclusively (or a Running Back by Committee approach) have really made it hard to follow a RB strategy anymore. However, there are the Top 5-6 guys who are the “bell cow RBs” like the old days and that is why they go so early in drafts.
Zero RB – The reaction 5 years ago to the changes in the NFL was for fantasy players to go contrary to the norm. So, instead of drafting 4 RBs to start a draft, they would not draft a RB until Round 4 or 5 or later. This reaction (over-reaction in my view) was an experiment. Of course, it could work if you hit on the Top WRs, QB and TE. However, depending on the format of your league, Zero RB has mostly failed. Skilled players can pull off the strategy by selecting undervalued RBs late and working the Waiver Wire early in the season to fortify that position. I think that Zero RB has moved through its course for the most part.
Fill Out Your Roster Method – This method is really common for new players. People just go down the roster and pick starters at each position first and then fill in their bench positions next. I do not recommend this approach. The reason is what we call “Positional Scarcity.” Positional Scarcity means that certain positions – RBs mostly and WRs will go faster in drafts than other positions. So, there is no need to take a Kicker or Defense until very late in a draft, when good back up or even potential starting RBs are still on the Board. The same can be said for QBs and TEs (more on that below). So, I advocate using your early picks in the Positional Scarcity positions and then switching the other positions much later in the draft.
Now let’s look at what I do recommend for drafting:
Balanced Drafting – Of course, I’m going to recommend a balanced approach. Do not go into a Draft with RB Heavy or Zero RB in mind. Stick to your board, get the values you can as players fall, but draft RB and WR as evenly as possible through the first 6 rounds. Now, there will be exceptions, if I see a player like TE Rob Gronkowski at a value in my standard Draft, then yes, I’ll take him at some point. In fact, my last 2 Championships in that league had Gronk on my team in the early 3rd round both times. However, doing something like that will alter your draft plan. The best way to go is to draft the best 3 RBs and 3 WRs in the 1st 6 rounds, it doesn’t matter which rounds, but I do recommend alternating some and not going RB/RB/RB or WR/WR/WR in your 1st 3 picks.
Early Floor and Late Ceiling – We talked in the previous article about Floor vs Ceiling players. To quickly refresh, a Floor for a player is the lowest expected production for a player. High Floor players are guys you feel strong about producing at high level, even if they don’t have their best year. High Floor players are players who will get a large amount of predictable “Touches” or times they will carry or catch the ball as a RB, “Targets” or times they will get the ball thrown to them as a WR/TE, and Pass Attempts for a QB. Whereas the Ceiling for a player is the highest expected outcome for a player. High Ceiling Players are guys who may have their best statistical year or one at the top of the charts at their position. High Ceiling players are guys who can win you your league. However, often times when referring to High Ceiling players, there is a downside that may not be as high as a High Floor player’s downside. So, High Ceiling players may have a wider range of possible outcomes, which makes them riskier to select on Draft Day. Of course, in the 1st 2 Rounds of a Draft, those are the players with both High Floors and High Ceilings, that is why they are so valuable. So, my recommended draft strategy is to focus on High Floor players in the first 7-8 rounds of your Draft, then in the 2nd half of the Draft, focus on High Ceiling players. An example would be, if I am drafting a player in Round 10 of a 15 round draft, and I have a choice between an aging RB who has been productive and a rookie RB who is 2nd or 3rd on the depth chart that I like to have a chance to start by Week 6, then I will take the rookie. Alvin Kamara was this guy last year, and Jeremy Hill in another year. Those guys won me the league, really emerging in the 2nd half of the year. Sure, you can find guys like that on the waiver wire, sometimes, but you need to know your league. Some leagues I play in do not really make a lot of trades, so you have to draft effectively for breakout guys. I like to do so in Round 9-12 of my leagues. If the guy doesn’t work out, then it is no big deal. I only spent a later round pick on them. Plus, with the High Floor guys in the early rounds, my team will be solid. However, in order to win your league, you will need to hit on someone unexpected or pick up someone off waivers who kills it for you. So, the strategy is High Floor Early and High Ceiling Late.
Always Wait on QB – The QB is the highest scoring position and the easiest to replace. The difference between Aaron Rodgers and Phillip Rivers per week is negligible over the course of the season, but you have to draft Rodgers 3-5 rounds earlier. Plus, the QB1 in fantasy the last 3-4 years has been a different guy each year. So, reaching for a QB too early will hurt your team if they do not produce to expectations. Depending on league format (Super Flex and 2 QB leagues are different), I recommend being the last guy to take a QB in the league. Now, this strategy takes some cojones for sure. However, if you are able to do it, then you can fill your roster with top position players and your starters and backups at RB and WR will be strong. One more thing, if you do decide to take a QB in the 1st 5-6 rounds, then DO NOT TAKE A TE until much later. It is pretty much been proven that if you select both a QB and TE early in a draft (1st 5-6 rounds), then your overall roster will suffer. So, you have to wait on one position or the other.
Early or Wait on TE – To me, there are like 3 top TEs in the NFL – Rob Gronkowski, NE, Travis Kelce, KC, and Zac Ertz, PHI. Realistically, to get these guys you will have to draft them in the Top 4 rounds, which is a steep price. As I said before, Gronk has won me some titles. However, I’ve also picked him early and he’s missed significant time, which killed my team. So, you should make a decision – take a Top 3 guy (and not a Top QB) or just wait. Most of the time, I opt for waiting. After the 6th round of picking 3 WRs, and 3 RBs to fill your roster, then you can address TE. Hopefully, in the 7th round, you can pick up a guy who is appropriately priced and will have a good season. I’m also not averse to waiting even longer and pairing 2 lower end TEs in the later rounds and just playing the match ups until one emerges. Why should you do this? Well, the difference between TE7 and TE14 is only about 1-2 points per week. So, it is easily replaced on the waiver wire. While, the difference between RB30 and RB45 is typically much more than 2 points per week. Last year, I either had Gronk or Ertz on all my teams, but I was able to get Ertz in Round 7 or later in my leagues. I trusted my rankings and saw where he was in ADP, then pulled the trigger after my team was full of quality RBs and WRs. I’ll give you a couple of guys to target this year later in a subsequent article.
Handcuffing – I need to take a second to talk about handcuffing. Now, technically, you can “Handcuff” any position. A Handcuff is when you will draft one player at a position and also their back up as an insurance policy in case of injury. The only position you should consider handcuffing is at RB. Now, some experts advocate for handcuffing all RBs on their team to “lock up” the position of a given team. I do think it depends on your league. For example, in one of my leagues, we only are allowed 4 RBs on the roster – 2 of which start. So, I am not allowed a lot of speculation room for Running Backs that could break out later – like Kamara last year. I can roll the dice and have my starters and 2 upside RBs behind them. However, if the Upside/High Ceiling backs are not playing and bye weeks come up or worse an injury to my starter, then I’m in trouble. So, in that league, I do tend to Handcuff at least my top RB. Yet, I really only advocate handcuffing RBs if you are selecting them in the 1st round. The Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, Zeke Elliott owners should invest a pick in the 10th Round or later on those back ups. Now, there will be people in your league that will jump up to take those handcuffs to try and extort players from you in a trade later. I would not panic in those situations. The Handcuff really is only valuable if the Top RB goes down early in the season. Most league owners will drop your handcuff to make room for other players in the bye weeks, so you can grab them later. I do advocate for getting your handcuff as you approach the playoffs because at that point your team is solidified, and a significant loss in production come playoff time will kill your season. Now, I have to say that getting a handcuff is not a replacement of the starters value, just their opportunities. So, do not expect James Connor to step in and play like Le’Veon Bell. That is why I’m more interested in top rookies or upside RBs in the later rounds that have the ability to start without an injury or emerge later in the season. So, the recommendation is to Handcuff your 1st Round RB in most leagues. I would not do it in other cases unless your league format pushes you to do so, and look to pick up handcuffs for your top RBs later in the season off of waivers.
Last 2 Picks K and DST – Now, this is the final recommendation. DO NOT PICK A KICKER OR DEFENSE EARLIER THAN THE LAST 2 ROUNDS. But the Jags DST is going to be awesome! Do you know when the Jags DST was picked last year? In the last 2 rounds. Like I don’t want you to fill out your starters in order, you can wait on Defense and Kicker. The replacement value for most DSTs and Ks is very close week to week. Sure there will be a stud defense or two and a lights out kicker. However, I’m 100% certain, Justin Tucker, K, Baltimore will not win you your league, but Alvin Kamara or this year’s equivalent will picked in the same round. Just be patient, fill out your position groups, especially RBs and WRs, and just use your last 2 picks for DST and K. It will work out just fine. You may end up “streaming” or playing a different DST or K off the waiver wire each week for a while, but you will find someone good. In fact, I picked up Jake Elliott off of waivers on most of my teams, the PHI K last year, and he was great. The High Floor players in the early rounds mixed with upside High Ceiling guys in the later rounds with a last pick DST and K is the way to go, trust me.
Mock Drafts: The last recommendation is to do Mock Drafts. Every site has them. It is good to stick to your similar format in terms of scoring system, league size and draft format. Once you have compiled your rankings, then use them in the Mock Draft room. If you do not know your Draft position in your league, the try multiple spots. It is just practice, but you can try different strategies like taking a TE early or waiting super long on a QB. Mock Drafts help you in a lot of ways:
- Experience – As you do them, you will get more comfortable to the format and who is selected at various positions.
- Strategy – Since you can play around with strategies, you can see which team you like the best to replicate that strategy on Draft Day.
- Confidence – Mock Drafts help you to gain confidence in your format, but mostly to not get frazzled under pressure. You can be confident your team will be fine no matter what happens.
So, do some mock drafts before your league draft, I promise it will help you.
Ok, that is Drafting in a nut shell. We will dig a little deeper next time into the positions to break down which guys are more valuable than others and why next time. However, using these basic principles, you will do well in your draft this month.
Wegs