Here is this year’s predictions sure to go wrong. I’ll go Region by Region predicting upsets, Sweet Sixteen, Elite 8, Final Four and Title, plus best bets. I’ll still write weekly updates covering the action.
East Region
The region is Duke’s to lose, but the Committee did not do them any favors, despite the #1 Overall Seed. The East Region is the best collection of coaches in the entire tournament – Izzo, Pitino, Self, Hurley, Cronin and Scheyer. The NCAA Tournament really relies on coaching, especially getting to the Final Four.
Upsets/Best Bets
- 11 South Florida over 6 Louisville – Mikel Brown is a really good player, but he is not 100% for Louisville. South Florida is rolling. I like the ML +155.
- 5 St. Johns over 12 UNI, but I love the Under 131.5 and +9.5 – UNI will try to grind out possessions versus a great D, and the Johnnies can struggle to score at times, too.
- 5 St. Johns over 4 Kansas – A great 2nd round matchup, but I like St. Johns to win, even though Darryn Peterson is the best scorer on the floor.
- 2 UConn over 7 UCLA – however, take the points with UCLA – despite the long travel for the Bruins, I think they will be healthy and give UConn all they want.
- 8 Ohio State vs. 9 TCU Winner – I love the Horned Frogs, but the Buckeyes have started to play great. So, this is my favorite 8-9 matchup. Either team should push Duke at least for 30 minutes, especially with the Duke injuries. So, winner of Ohio State-TCU to cover spread versus Duke.
Sweet 16/Elite 8
- 1 Duke beats 5 St. Johns – should be a classic. I love the forward matchup – Zuby Ejiofor vs. Cam Boozer, and the Duke injuries better heal some.
- 3 Michigan State beats 2 UConn (if they advance past UCLA) – I’m just not sold on UConn again. They lack depth. Now, Sparty struggles to score, but they can play like St. Johns and out grit the Huskies.
1 Duke comes out of the East Region. I think their toughest game will be Round 2 – I want to see TCU, but Ohio State can give them a game, too. In DC, I think Duke cruises with another week of recovery behind them.
South Region
The Gators try to repeat, which just happened with UConn, but it will not be easy. This region is set up for a rematch from last year’s title game.
Upsets/Best Bets
- 11 VCU can beat 6 UNC – F Caleb Wilson will not play for the Heels. The Rams are playing great, so the best bet is VCU +2.5/ML +117.
- 1 Florida vs. 5 Vandy – This will not come until the Sweet 16, but give me the Over in that game. Vandy has scored 90 points a game in 2 matchups. I think Florida gets revenge, but they will need to change the nets after that game.
Sweet 16/Elite 8
- 1 Florida over 5 Vandy – Part 3 will be a fun watch. I think the Gators will take the rubber match.
- 3 Illinois over 2 Houston – It is really hard to pick against Houston. They defend well and have guards, but they do not have the size to matchup against Illinois. I like the freshmen matchup at guard – Keaton Wagler vs. Kingston Flemings.
1 Florida advances out of the South Region, but I can see Vandy winning that game and being a Cinderella over Illinois, if they advance.
West Region
Arizona is the #2 Seed overall, but I think they have a fairly easy path at least to the Sweet 16.
Upsets/Best Bets
- 5 Wisconsin over 12 High Point – that should be a fun game to watch. I do not fault you for taking the returning High Point for the upset, but both teams can score. Total is 162.5 – take the Over.
- 6/11 Winner over 3 Zags – The Zags are good metrically, and they almost always go to the Sweet Sixteen. However, I love AJ Dybantsa if BYU can beat Texas or NC State. Both Texas or NC State can take out th Zags, so bet the ML on the 6/11 winner vs. the Zags in Round 2 (by the way – that game would be another Over).
- 4 Arkansas over 5 Wisconsin – One of my favorite 2nd Round matchups, as the guards in this game will likely be playing in the NBA. I have a crush on Darius Acuff, so I think the Hogs win, but the best bet is Over whatever the total is – this game could be in the 90s.
Sweet Sixteen/Elite 8
- 1 Arizona over 4 Arkansas – Another must see watch, as Acuff will play his best game against that size and speed of Arizona. However, the lack of depth will cost them in the long run.
- 2 Purdue over 6 BYU – The AJ Dybantsa campaign will end against the senior-laden Boilermaker team. It won’t be pretty, but Boilers up to the Elite 8.
1 Arizona will win the West Region, if they can get past Arkansas, then Tommy Lloyd can get to the Final Four with the Wildcats for his first trip as a head coach.
Midwest Region
The Wolverines get a very favorable draw with no major obstacles until the Elite 8, although this is the upset region to me.
Upsets/Best Bets
- 12 Akron over 5 Texas Tech – JT Toppin is out, Christian Anderson is not 100% for the Red Raiders, and the Zips make their 3rd straight trip to the Dance. Book the ML +255.
- 4 Alabama over 13 Hofstra – The Pride take on the Tide, and it should be a high scoring affair – so, I like the Over 159.5 – an upset is not out of the question, but points will be scored. Now, that G Aden Holloway will not play due to a criminal charge, the Tide are vulnerable in this matchup. Take the Points +11.5 with the Pride.
- 10 Santa Clara over 7 Kentucky – The Broncos have not been in the Dance for 30 years, and they will make the most of it – ML +120.
- 11 Miami (OH) over 6 Tennessee – Yes, a play in 11 Seed will win a game, like usual (12 out of the last 14 times). Bet the ML in this one, too over the Vols ML +390.
- 12 Akron beats 4 Alabama – It’s a long shot, but I think in this region we will see a double digit seed, and I like Akron for it. Santa Clara could do it, too. The Pride if they take out Bama, first, but I like Akron here. So, Bet Arkon ML in the 2nd Round.
Sweet 16/Elite 8
- 1 Michigan over 12 Akron – The Cinderella run will end for Akron in Chicago.
- 2 Iowa State over 3 UVA – I actually think that SMU can beat UVA, but if they do advance – Iowa State is tougher than the Wahoos.
2 Iowa State will win the Midwest Region – I can’t bring myself to pick all #1s two years in a row. So, I’ll twirl with the Cyclones to Indianapolis. Michigan is big, so that will be tough to overcome, but I think the guards for the Cyclones will outshine the Wolverines’ guards.
Final Four
- 1 Duke over 1 Florida – Cam Boozer will have the game of his life against the nation’s best frontline. He will need to get help from his guards, but he will get enough to advance to Monday. No repeat for the Gators.
- 1 Arizona over 2 Iowa State – The Big 12 Title Game Part 2 – it makes sense to me, that one team will be a Big 12 team. It is was the league with the best teams at the top.
Arizona defeats Duke in a high quality game, 74-70. Arizona breaks a 29 year title drought from 1997 when Lute Olson led the program. HC Tommy Lloyd will take his most talented team across the finish line.
There you go. I know there will be a 13 or 14 Seed that wins and likely less chalk into the Sweet 16, but that is why this is so fun.
Enjoy it! I’ll be in Vegas for a few days.
Wegs