College Hoops: The Field Is Set

We are here, the Big Dance. Everything you will need to know about the Field. Predictions will come out on Wednesday.

Schedule

• First Four – Tuesday, 3/17 and Wednesday, 3/18 – Dayton, OH
• Round of 64 – Thursday, 3/19 and Friday, 3/20 – Various
• Round of 32 – Saturday, 3/21 and Sunday, 3/22 – Various
• Sweet 16 – Thursday, 3/26 and Friday, 3/27 – Listed below
• Elite 8 – Thursday, 3/28 and Sunday, 3/29 – Listed below
• Final Four – Saturday, 4/4 – Indianapolis
• Championship – Monday, 4/6 – Indianapolis

Region by Region Breakdown

In each Regional, I’ll break down every single team, list the teams to watch and potential dark horses and upsets.

East Region (Washington, DC)

1. Duke (32-2, KenPom 1 Overall, 4 Off, 2 Def) – The #1 Overall Seed in the tournament and ACC Champs. They have been great all year long. Freshman F Cameron Boozer will be the Player of the Year, but they have a balanced team. They lost Caleb Foster at PG to a broken foot, which makes them more vulnerable than a couple weeks ago. However, they are an excellent team.
2. UConn (29-5, 11 Overall, KP 30 O, 11 D) – The Huskies were red hot early, but fell in the Big East more than expected plus St. John’s took the rubber match in the Big East Tournament Final. They have an efficient offense, but their depth raises questions along with a lack of elite athleticism.
3. Michigan State (25-7, 9 Overall, 24 O, 13 D) – Sparty is Sparty. March is Izzo-time, and this team may not score great in the half court, but they can run. They also dominate the boards. G Jeremy Fears is the playmaker that can take this team deep.
4. Kansas (23-10, 21 Overall, 57 O, 10 D) – The Jayhawk have had an up and down season, but they showed some life as Frosh G Darryn Peterson is now a full go to help that offense. The D is always there. KU may go deeper than their seed.
5. St. Johns (28-6, 17 Overall, 44 O, 12 D) – The Big East Regular Season and Tournament Champs – Johnnies are a very athletic team that plays extremely hard. The D can be tough to watch at times, but they will be a tough out.
6. Louisville (23-10, 19 Overall, 19 O, 25 D) – The Cardinals have had their moments this year in the ACC. Frosh G Mikkel Brown is fun to watch, but they have been so inconsistent.
7. UCLA (23-11, 27 Overall, 22 O, 53 D) – The Bruins did play much better in the Big Ten Tourney than expected, as they were terrible outside of the Pacific Time Zone. Still, not sure they can be trusted to make a run, even with a player returning.
8. Ohio State (21-12, 26 Overall, 17 O, 54 D) – The Buckeyes played their way off the Bubble in the last 2 weeks. Their guards are playing much better, which should make them tougher than they appear.
9. TCU (22-11, 43 Overall, 81 O, 22 D) – This team is tough. They will defend you when you come off the bus. I really like this team, if they can get any kind of scoring.
10. UCF (21-11, 54 Overall, 40 O, 101 D) – The Golden Knights have gotten some big wins this year, but mostly at home. They come from the Big 12, so maybe that competition prepared them for the Big Dance.
11. South Florida (25-8, 47 Overall, 61 O, 40 D) – The AAC Champ can be a tough team.
12. UNI (23-12, 72 Overall, 153 O, 24 D) – The Panthers needed to win as an underdog in the Missouri Valley, but this team can defend at a 25 level.
13. Cal Baptist (25-8, 106 Overall, 191 O, 50 D) – First ever NCAA Tournament bid. They pride themselves on the defensive end.
14. North Dakota State (27-7, 113 Overall, 124 O, 124 D) – The Bison of the Summit League advance to another tourney.
15. Furman (22-12, 191 Overall, 200 O, 181 D) – The Paladins get into another tourney out of the SoCon.
16. Siena (23-11, 192 Overall, 210 O, 175 D) – MAAC Champs with Head Coach Jerry McNamara – first time in the tournament since 2010.

Teams to Watch: 1 Seed Duke is the top team, but those injuries (including Jon Scheyer’s finger) will hurt them. 2 UConn, 3 Michigan State and 4 Kansas are blue bloods and capable of beating Duke.

Dark Horses:

• 5 St. Johns was underseeded at 5. They are better than Kansas to me, and a few other 4 Seeds. That will be a motivating force for Rick Pitino.
• 9 TCU is a team to watch. They play great D, and have beaten some really good teams. They will give Duke a game in the 2nd Round.

Upsets:

• 11 South Florida is a team to watch. Louisville is really inconsistent, and the Bulls are on a win streak.
• 12 UNI as much as I like St. Johns, that Panthers team can defend, so in a lower scoring game, the underdog has a shot.

Midwest Region (Chicago, IL)

1. Michigan (31-3, 3 Overall, 8 O, 1 D) – The #2 Overall Seed in the tournament has been nearly the best team all year. They did lose head to head against Duke in February, but they won the Big Ten handily and the Tournament. The length of this team is a problem for anyone. Their guards will dictate if they can win it all.
2. Iowa State (27-7, 6 Overall, 21 O, 4 D) – The Cyclones are a fascinating team. Very talented, but have been much better with favorable crowds behind them. They can definitely go deep, but their lack of size will cost them at one point.
3. UVA (29-5, 13 Overall, 27 O, 16 D) – The Wahoos are a good team, and clearly the 2nd best team in the ACC. However, not sure they can take out an elite team – they were more competitive against Duke on Saturday.
4. Alabama (23-9, 18 Overall, 3 O, 67 D) – The Tide do what Nate Oates’ teams do – score – they will try to run you off the court. Not much D, but that won’t matter until the Sweet 16.
5. Texas Tech (22-10, 20 Overall, 12 O, 33 D) – A potential contender prior to injury of JT Toppin, but now this team has to score by committee. I like them, but they can’t get to Indy.
6. Tennessee (22-11, 16 Overall, 37 O, 15 D) – The Vols lost a lot of close games, but their D keeps them in most. So, they may be a sneaky team.
7. Kentucky (21-13, 28 Overall, 39 O, 27 D) – The Wildcats were able to salvage a terrible start to their season, but they are not game for a run.
8. Georgia (22-10, 32 Overall, 16 O, 80 D) – Another team that will try to outscore you. Good guards, though.
9. St. Louis (28-5, 41 Overall, 51 O, 42 D) – The Billikens were on cruise control early in the year, but some injuries have slowed them. They made the Dance, but I think they may be one and done.
10. Santa Clara (26-8, 35 Overall, 23 O, 82 D) – The Broncos make their first appearance since 1996 when Steve Nash played for Santa Clara. I like this team a lot, so I’ll be rooting for them.
11. Play In
    • SMU (20-13, 42 Overall, 26 O, 91 D) – Apparently are getting players back from injury, which to me should not be a criteria for selection. They will play in Dayton.
    • Miami (OH) (31-1, 93 Overall, 70 O, 156 D) – The Redhawks need to earn a main bracket bid not far from home in Dayton.
12. Akron (29-5, 64 Overall, 54 O, 113 D) – The Zips flew under the radar with the success of Miami (OH)’s undefeated bid, but Akron is a better team than them, and they won the MAC Tournament Title and can score.
13. Hofstra (24-10, 87 Overall, 89 O, 95 D) – The Pride won the CAA, and they can be frisky. Not sure they do anything well though.
14. Wright State (23-11, 140 Overall, 117 O, 193 D) – The best team in the Horizon League will be a fun watch in the first round.
15. Tennessee State (23-9, 187 Overall, 173 O, 212 D) – The Tigers punched the first bid in the Ohio Valley.
16. Play In
    • Howard (23-10, 207 Overall, 283 O, 117 D) – The Bison make another tournament by winning the MEAC Tournament and they won the regular season title, too.
    • UMBC (24-8, 185 Overall, 183 O, 192 D) – The AmEast Champ was good all year. They will give someone a tough game.

Teams to Watch: 1 Seed Michigan to me has the easiest path to Indy. 2 Iowa State has a high ceiling, I don’t love their size against Michigan. 4 Alabama can shoot you out of the gym. UVA is not as good as advertised. I’m not high on a ton of teams in this region.

Dark Horses:

• 5 Texas Tech is without Toppin, but they were able to figure things out, but Christian Anderson needs to be healthy. Disappointing in the Big 12 Tournament, but probably a rematch with Duke would be encouraged.

Upsets:

• 12 Akron has been in the Dance 3 years running, so they have the experience, even though I like the Red Raiders as a Dark Horse, but without Anderson I’m on the Zips.
• 10 Santa Clara is going to beat Kentucky or at least I’m rooting for it.
• 13 Hofstra will give Bama a game.

South Region (Houston, TX)

1. Florida (26-7, 4 Overall, 9 O, 7 D) – The Gators got pummeled in the Quarters of the SEC Tournament by Vandy, which raised an eyebrow. However, prior to that loss, they were massacring the SEC and white hot. Their bigs are their strength and they play at a torrid pace. If you can make the guards beat you, then you have a shot.
2. Houston (28-6, 5 Overall, 14 O, 5 D) – The Cougars are always a tough out. This year, they are very guard laden with Frosh Kingston Flemings, who is a stud, Emmanuel Sharp and [] Udan. They lack inside scoring at times, but the D will travel.
3. Illinois (24-8, 7 Overall, 2 O, 28 D) – The Illini is a talented team that can score with anyone. Their Frosh G Keaton Wagler is dynamic guard is a matchup problem. They just can’t stop penetrating guards.
4. Nebraska (26-6, 14 Overall, 55 O, 7 D) – The Huskers are playing hard for Coach Fred Hoiberg. They are seeking their first NCAA Tournament win in their history.
5. Vandy (26-8, 12 Overall, 7 O, 31 D) – The Commodores are having their best season in recent memory. They have a good blend of size and shooting. They were right there to win the SEC Tourney, but it was essentially a home tournament. Not sure they will travel well in the Big Dance.
6. UNC (24-8, 29 Overall, 32 O, 37 D) – The Heels will have one thing others do not – Frosh F Caleb Wilson should be back after he broke his hand and has missed a month. He should give them the missing O in big matchups, so they are essentially underseeded.
7. St. Mary’s (27-5, 24 Overall, 24 Overall, 43 O, 19 D) – If only they didn’t have to play the Zags, this team would be the WCC darling. They did get beat by the Santa Clara Broncos this year in the Semis. So, good for at least one win this week.
8. Clemson (24-10, 36 Overall, 71 O, 20 D) – The Tigers are not a pretty watch on Offense, but they can defend and have size. So, depending on the matchup, they can be tough.
9. Iowa (21-12, 25 Overall, 31 O, 30 D) – The Hawkeyes are just kinda there. They have gotten some good wins, mostly at home. So, not sure what to expect here.
10. Texas A&M (21-11, 39 Overall, 49 O, 41 D) – The Aggies are a fun team to watch, but so many SEC teams in the Big Dance. They press you the entire game, which some teams cannot handle.
11. VCU (27-7, 45 Overall, 46 O, 60 D) – The Rams won the A10 Conference Tournament to officially secure their spot. They are a team that can play. Coach Phil Martelli, Jr. takes his first team to the Dance in his first year as coach.Troy
12. McNeese (28-5, 68 Overall, 91 O, 49 D) – The Southland Regular Season and Tournament Champ clocks in, and they are a potential upset team.
13. Troy (22-11, 143 Overall, 141 O, 166 D) – The Trojans come out of the very competitive Sun Belt Conference. They have pulled off upsets in the past.
14. Penn (18-11, 150 Overall, 204 O, 111 D) – The Quakers shocked the world in the Ivy League Tournament – TJ Power was outstanding with 43 points (a league record) in the OT win to get the Quakes in for the first time since 2018 – Coach Fran McCaffery (former Iowa Coach) – he takes his 5th team to the Big Dance.
15. Idaho (21-14, 145 Overall, 176 O, 136 D) – The Vandals were the 4 Seed in their tournament, but they won the Big Sky Tournament.
16. Play In
    • Prairie View (18-17, 288 Overall, 310 O, 232 D) – The Panthers’ big night will be the play in game.
    • Lehigh (18-16, 284 Overall, 290 O, 257 D) – The Mountain Hawks almost always win the Patriot League, but had to roll through the tournament given their tougher year.

Teams to Watch: 1 Seed Florida’s loss hurt them. They have really tough teams in 2 Houston (who will play essentially at home in the regional) and 3 Illinois. 4 Nebraska should get their first win, but not a very deep run.

Dark Horses:

• 5 Vandy looked great in the SEC Tournament, and even though I haven’t been a believer, they can do it again. I like them to make the Sweet 16 and want to see that Florida rematch.
• 6 UNC if they get Caleb Wilson back at 100%, then I like them to be frisky. They haven’t played great without him, but he can take over.

Upsets:

• 11 VCU is playing great, so if there is a less than 100% Wilson, then I like them in that matchup.
• 12 McNeese plays D, so Vandy will have their hands full.
• 13 Troy would keep Nebraska winless in the Tourney.

West Region (San Jose, CA)

1. Arizona (32-2, 2 Overall, 5 O, 3 D) – The Wildcats were the last power conference team to be undefeated, then lost another, but since those back-to-back losses, they ran through the rugged Big 12 – including the tournament. They are the most complete team in College Basketball, as I think their guards are better than the other 3 #1 Seeds.
2. Purdue (27-8, 8 Overall, 1 O, 36 D) – The Boilers were the Preseason #1 team, but they hit a lull late in the Big Ten season. However, they seemed to find their stride again in the Big Ten Tournament, which they won over Michigan. This senior laden team has an elite PG in Braden Smith plus great shooting. If they can defend even a little, then they can get deep.
3. Zags (30-3, 10 Overall, 29 O, 9 D) – The Zags have been under the radar, as they got beat by 40 against Michigan early on. However, they did what they always do in the WCC – winning the Regular Season and Tournament Title. They will be a tough out.
4. Arkansas (26-8, 15 Overall, 6 O, 48 D) – The SEC Tourney Champ is one of my favorite teams to watch. Frosh G Darius Acuff is the SEC Player of the Year, its leading scorer, and I would say he is the #1 Pick in the NBA draft. Their main knock is they play only 7 players, which will be an issue with big teams against their front line.
5. Wisconsin (24-10, 22 Overall, 11 O, 51 D) – The Badgers are a team with a low floor and high ceiling, which means they can beat anyone, but if their shooting is off, they can be a quick out. I love the guards Boyd and Blackwell, though.
6. BYU (23-11, 23 Overall, 10 O, 57 D) – This team was a dangerous one before the Richie Saunders injury. Still, you have to see Frosh F AJ Dybantsa who will likely be the actual #1 Pick in the NBA Draft. AJ is smooth with the ball and creates shots for his whole team.
7. Miami (25-8, 31 Overall, 33 O, 38 D) – The Canes were a team I want to love. They play hard nosed D and can be very physical, but can get bogged down to talented teams.
8. Villanova (24-8, 33 Overall, 41 O, 35 D) – This Nova team is not as good as classic teams. Plus the Big East was very weak this year, so I do not like their chances.
9. Utah State (28-6, 30 Overall, 28 O, 45 D) – The Aggies were the Mountain West Regular Season and Tournament Champ, but they cooled off down the stretch. If they cam play like they did in Vegas, then I like their chances better.
10. Missouri (20-12, 52 Overall, 50 O, 78 D) – One of the last teams in, and they will need to validate that selection.
11. Play In
    • NC State (20-13, 34 Overall, 20 O, 86 D) – Yeah, they do not play D. So, if they play a high scoring team, it will be curtains.
    • Texas (18-14, 37 Overall, 13 O, 112 D) – They have pros that play great on Offense, but don’t believe in playing D. I would of liked to seem them play Miami (OH).
12. High Point (30-4, 92 Overall, 66 O, 161 D) – One of my favorite upset contenders, as they reach their 2nd straight tournament representing the Big South.
13. Hawaii (24-8, 108 Overall, 211 O, 43 D) – The Big West Tournament Champ is big and can defend well.
14. Kennesaw State (21-13, 163 Overall, 143 O, 194 D) – The Conference USA Champ needed to roll through the tournament to get in. They may be of interest.
15. Queens (21-13, 77 O, 322 D) – First ever NCAA Tournament bid in their first year of eligibility. This team runs and guns – no D necessary from the ASun.
16. LIU (24-10, 216 Overall, 239 O, 186 D) – The Sharks return to the Big Dance representing the NEC, who has recorded some of the biggest upsets in the Tournament in recent memory.

Teams to Watch: 1 Seed Arizona was not given any gifts in this region. Perhaps the deepest region with talent, 2 Purdue seems to have found its game again; 3 Seed Zags are always tough; 4 Seed Arkansas is so good – Darius Acuff can take this team to Indy.

Dark Horses:

• 5 Wisconsin is a team that if they get hot, then they can beat anyone.
• 6 BYU if AJ Dybantsa can do what he did early in the Big 12 Tourney, then I can see them stealing the Zags Sweet 16 spot.
• 11 Texas which is a talented enough team to get to the Sweet 16, if they can get out of Dayton.

Upsets:

• 12 High Point is an experienced team and they can play. Wisconsin will need to earn that win.
• 13 Hawaii is a great defensive team. The Razorbacks are not deep, so I can see a conflict of styles that will scare them.

Let the Madness begin.

Wegs