College Hoops: Bubble Watch and Big Conference Tourneys

March Madness has begun, and the smaller tourneys have already punched tickets. Now it is time for the big boys.

Big Matchups Recap

• Vandy Bests Vols – The Battle for Tennessee is now over, and the Commodores were able to slay the Vols. Vandy went in as a -3.5 dog, but shot a blistering 52.9% against a tough Tennessee D. Despite losing the rebounding battle, Vandy was able to get to the line a lot making 27 of 32 free throws, which was the difference (+13 makes) in their 86-82 win.
• Duke Gets Revenge – Yes, Duke hasn’t lost in weeks, but the last loss came at the buzzer in Chapel Hill. So, the Blue Devils were ready for revenge. After 3:30 minutes into the game, Duke would not trail in the game really opening things up in the 2nd half as F Cam Boozer led with 26 points with 3 other starters reaching double digits. The dominant 42-29 rebound advantage and 14 forced TOs doomed the Heels in the 76-61 loss. Duke is the true big dog of the ACC.
• BYU Back At It – It has not been good for the Cougars since G Richie Saunders went down with the ACL, but against a good Texas Tech team they found a way to get it done. This time G Robert Wright led BYU with 27 points, while AJ Dybantsa did his thing with 21 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists in the 82-76 victory.
• Wolverines Too Much – Michigan may have played with their food during the week, but come the Sunday season finale, the Wolverines brought it. In the first half, the Spartans fought them toe to toe, and even led by 4 points with 12:59 to play on Carson Cooper’s 3 point play. However, Michigan had another gear and went on an 11-0 run over 4:30 minutes to take control of the game. The Wolverines got to the line – 26 of 29 – for a plus 10 advantage, which was the difference in the game, 90-80.

Predictions: S/U 3-1, ATS 3-1, Totals 4-0 – all but the Vandy surprise took me out.

KenPom Review

1. Duke 29-2 – The best team in the nation right now. Hard to argue, but let’s see the Big Dance bracket.
2. Michigan 29-2 – The best in the Big Ten. Clear 1 Seed.
3. Arizona 29-2 – After those 2 losses, no one has been better except for maybe Duke.
4. Florida 25-6 – The red hot Gators haven’t lost since January, and with the UConn loss move the 1 Seed.
5. Illinois 24-7 – The D has been poor against good guards, but can score at #1 in KP.
6. Houston 26-5 – Maybe those struggles down the stretch will motivate them.
7. Iowa State 26-6 – A team that is different on the road, although they blitzed ASU in the Big 12 tournament today.
8. Purdue 23-8 – Not the same squad. They need to find themselves in the Big Ten tourney.
9. Michigan State 25-6 – Sparty can play with anyone, and it is March for Izzo.
10. UConn 27-4 – Exposed by Marquette and Hurley bumped the ref. Down to the 2 Seed, and may be an early out in a couple weeks.

Bubble Watch – Lunardi 3/10/2026

Last Four Byes

• NC State (20-12, 10-8 ACC – 35 KP, 35 Net) – Win over Pitt helps, but another over UVA on Thursday would lock them in.
• Texas (18-13, 9-9 SEC – 33 KP, 42 Net) – Safely in to me. Their resume stacks up better than the next group.
• Santa Clara (26-8, 15-3 WCC – 37 KP, 40 Net) – Making it to the WCC Final secures their spot.
• Missouri 20-11, 10-8 SEC – 50 KP, 59 Net) – A win over Kentucky tomorrow would solidify their spot, but their low metrics are troubling.

Last Four In

• UCF (20-10, 9-9 Big 12 – 53 KP, 51 Net) – Some good wins to date and survived against Cincinnati which should keep them in.
• SMU (20-13, 8-10 ACC – 42 KP, 37 Net) – They advanced past Syracuse, but loss to Louisville will have them watching on Sunday. I don’t like their chances.
• VCU (24-7, 15-3 A10 – 46 KP, 44 Net) – Make the A10 Final, and they are in to me.
• Indiana (18-13, 9-11 Big Ten – 41 KP, 38 Net) – Has to beat Northwestern tonight or they are out.

First Four Out

• Auburn (17-15, 7-11 SEC – 39 KP, 39 Net) – This team still has a pulse. Needs a good run in the SEC tournament.
• New Mexico (22-9, 13-7 MWC – 49 KP, 45 Net) – Needs to beat the Aztecs in the Semis to get in, I think.
• Stanford (20-12, 9-9 ACC – 61 KP, 62 Net) – Can’t consider this team – lost to Pitt on Tuesday.
• VA Tech (19-13, 8-10 ACC – 58 KP, 57 Net) – Early out in the ACC tourney to Wake dooms this team. They are out.

Next Four Out

• Cincinnati (18-14, 9-9 Big 12 – 43 KP, 46 Net) – They had UCF on the ropes, but lost in OT today (Wednesday). They are looking NIT bound.
• San Diego State (20-10, 14-6 MWC – 47 KP, 47 Net) – Hard to see the Aztecs in unless they make the MWC Final, which means beating New Mexico in the Semis.
• Oklahoma (17-14, 7-11 Big 12 – 45 KP, 52 Net) – I’m not a fan of this team. I’d rather see the Zips from the MAC, but if they go deep, maybe.
• California (21-10, 9-9 ACC – 71 KP, 66 Net) – Need to beat Florida State tonight or they are all the way out.

Remaining Conference Tournaments

• Southland – Final Today, 3/11 – 2 McNeese blew out the 1 Seed SFA
• Patriot League – Final Today, 3/11 – 4 Boston U vs. 2 Lehigh
• Big Sky – Final – Wednesday, 3/11 – 7 Idaho takes on 4 Montana
• AmEast – Final – Saturday, 3/14 – 1 UMBC vs. 2 Vermont
• MEAC – Final – Saturday, 3/14 – Howard is the 1 Seed.
• SWAC – Final – Saturday, 3/14 – Bethune-Cookman top dog
• Big West – Final – Saturday, 3/14 – UC Irvine is 1 Seed, but 2 Hawaii is good.
• WAC – Final – Saturday, 3/14 – Utah Valley is 1 Seed
• C-USA – Final – Saturday, 3/14 – Liberty is a good team at 25-6.
• MAC – Final – Saturday, 3/14 – Hoping for a 1 Miami (OH) vs. 2 Akron final.
• Mountain West – Final – Saturday, 3/14 – Utah State is the 1 Seed, but New Mexico, San Diego State, CSU and even Boise State have a shot.
• ACC – Final – Saturday, 3/14 – Duke should win.
• Big East – Final – Saturday, 3/14 – UConn vs. St. Johns Part 3 – should be fun.
• Big 12 – Final – Saturday, 3/14 – Arizona is the 1 Seed, but watch out for TCU (red hot) and 2 Houston the defending champ.
• Ivy League – Final, Sunday, 3/15 – Only Semis and Finals with Yale as the 1 Seed.
• AAC – Final – Sunday, 3/15 – South Florida is the 1 Seed.
• Atlantic 10 – Final – Sunday, 3/15 – Hoping for a St. Louis vs. VCU final.
• Big Ten- Finals – Sunday, 3/15 – Michigan vs. Michigan State is probably inevitable.
• SEC – Finals – Sunday, 3/15 – Can anyone beat Florida? Maybe Arkansas can play better this time.

Sunday is Selection Sunday which should be entertaining.

Wegs