College Hoops: Dog Days of The Season

We are just 3 weeks from Selection Sunday, and with just 1-2 weeks left of the regular season, it is time to grind through before the Conference Tournaments start.

Big Game Recaps

• Michigan Dominated Purdue – The Wolverines went to Mackey Arena and took care of business, effectively cementing their control of the Big Ten Regular Season Title, 91-80. Michigan shot a red hot 52.5% from the field and even better from 3 – 56.5%.
• Game of the Year? – What a game!! Double OT with two high level guards in Freshman Arkansas G Darius Acuff going for 49 points in a loss, and Bama’s G Labaron Philon hit for 35 points. Alabama really wore them down and got the Hogs in foul trouble to get the win, 117-115.
• Arizona Bounced Back – What an incredible game by the Wildcats! They went into Houston, who basically never loses at home. The Arizona D just shut the door in the 2nd half not allowing a FG for almost 10 minutes, which allowed them to get the advantage in their 73-66 win.
• Duke Out Bigs Michigan – I was wrong on this one. Duke got C Aday Mara in foul trouble, and outrebounded the bigger Wolverines 41-28. Duke got balanced scoring effort in their 68-63 win.
• BYU Gets Big Win – I wrote off the Cougars in this one and was dead wrong. Frosh Superstar AJ Dybantsa with a near triple double – 29 points, 10 rebounds, 9 assists plus they limited Iowa State to 42.6% shooting in the 79-69 win at home.
• Heels Defend Homecourt – Going into Monday, UNC was 15-0 at home this season. Well, Louisville jumped out to a 10 point lead in the 1st half, but the Heels behind G Seth Trimble’s 30 points built a big lead. Louisville made it interesting, but fell short in the end, 77-74.
• Rock-Chalk Back – After a terrible loss at home on Saturday to Cincinnati, Kansas had to face a Houston team that had a tough week – the Cougars had not lost 3 straight games since 2017 – with losses to Iowa State and Arizona, they were facing that reality. Well, the Cougars were hot early and built a lead in the 1st half, but Kansas flipped the script on Houston in the middle 20 minutes building an 18 point lead. Houston’s Offensive struggles were the main cause. However, the Cougars made a late run cutting the lead to 12 with 5 minutes to go, but the Jayhawks finished the job with a 69-56 win.

Predictions: Rough first week – S/U 1-6, ATS 3-4, Totals 5-2 – dogs played well this week.

Bracket Reveal

The NCAA revealed the first 4 seeds in each projected region this week. Here is what they are showing as of Sunday, 2/21/2026 (before the Duke/Michigan game).

Midwest (Chicago)

1. Michigan (Overall 1)
2. Houston (6)
3. Florida (9)
4. UVA (16)

East (DC)

1. Duke (2)
2. Illinois (7)
3. Kansas (10)
4. Vanderbilt (15)

South (Houston)

1. Iowa State (4)
2. UConn (5)
3. Nebraska (11)
4. Texas Tech (13)

West (San Jose)

1. Arizona (3)
2. Purdue (8)
3. Gonzaga (12)
4. Michigan State (14)

Reaction: Michigan will drop to the #2 overall after the loss. I think Florida as a 3 Seed is not going to last. At worst they are a 2 Seed, and if they end up running the table in the SEC and win the SEC Conference Tournament, then they will be a 1 Seed. Iowa State is a good team, but UConn, Houston or Florida will be that 1 Seed in the end. I also think Houston is better than UConn. So, there is movement there. Lastly, Texas Tech did get a big win this weekend without JT Toppin, but they will drop off the 4 line as the rest of the season plays out. I think St. Johns is a Top 16 team along with Arkansas over Texas Tech and Vanderbilt.

KenPom Review

1. Michigan 25-2 – Still on top even after the loss to Duke. Their guards were held in check, which is the big worry for Michigan to cut down the nets.
2. Duke 25-2 – Surprised they did not move to 1, but they showed they are the best team in the country now. Can they lose? Yes, of course, but coaching matters and Scheyer is really good.
3. Arizona 25-2 – Maybe we wrote them off a little too much with Koa Pete on the bench. They were able to win an ugly, physical game in Houston which meant something to me.
4. Illinois 22-6 – The Illini has 4 losses in the Big Ten, and it seems like all of them have been in OT – this time they blew a big lead at UCLA.
5. Florida 21-6 – Again, the Committee needs to get the memo, this team is playing incredible basketball. They will get tested this week.
6. Houston 23-5 – 3 straight losses against the Cyclones, Wildcats and Jayhawks raises doubts, but they can turn it around.
7. Purdue 22-5 – The Boilers have a path to victory that they can do against almost any team, just not Michigan.
8. Iowa State 23-4 – On the road in the Big 12 is no joke.
9. Michigan State 22-5 – Sparty is gritty, as always – another tough win over Ohio State shows it.
10. Zags 27-2 – Like always they are dominating the WCC.
11. UConn 25-3 – Danny Hurley’s bunch took a hit against Creighton. St. Johns game on Wednesday is must see tv.
12. Nebraska 23-4 – That 51 rating on Offense is showing in losses lately.
13. Vandy 21-6 – They got big boyed by in state rival Tennessee yet again.
14. Tennessee 20-7 – No one talks about this team, but they are playing really well.
15. Kansas 21-7 – After getting thumped on Saturday, KU showed why Allen Fieldhouse is the best homecourt advantage. Kansas is now 40-0 on Big Monday under Bill Self.

Bubble Watch

Based on Lunardi’s 2/24/2026 update.

First Four Byes

• Texas (17-10, 8-6 SEC, 32 KP, 39 Net) – The Longhorns were on a roll, but got snipped this weekend by Georgia. They should be in the field.
• UCLA (18-9, 10-6 Big Ten – 42 KP, 41 Net) – A 20 point comeback win at home in OT against Illinois makes them off the Bubble, despite the road woes.
• Auburn (15-12, 6-8 SEC – 34 KP, 34 Net) – I’m not a huge fan of this team. They are terrible against the spread (1-6 in their last 7). The ratings are super high, but 12 losses won’t play with other teams on the Bubble.
• Indiana (17-10, Big Ten – 41 KP, 36 Net) – The Hoosiers have gotten some good wins, but they are not super consistent.

Last Four In

• Santa Clara (23-6, 14-2 – 35 KP, 40 Net) – It is good to see the love for the Broncos. They have a huge game at St. Mary’s this week which could seal their fate, but their ratings are super high making them a team to show on Selection Sunday.
• Missouri (18-9, 8-6, 52 KP, 60 Net) – They did get a big win this weekend, but as I’ve written before not super trustworthy. Their ratings are sub-par to make them in the Field right now to me.
• TCU (17-10, 7-7 Big 12 – 50 KP, 47 Net) – Horned Frogs are that Bubble team they will be showing on Selection Sunday.
• New Mexico (21-6, 12-4 MWC – 43 KP, 43 Net) – It is going to be them or the Aztecs not both and possibly neither out of the Mountain West this year. They face off on Saturday, 2/28 – winner will be on the right side of the Bubble.

First Four Out

• Ohio State (17-10, 9-7 Big Ten – 36 KP, 37 Net) – The Buckeyes play hard, but they lose so many close games. They may eventually fall out of the tournament.
• USC (18-9, 7-9 Big Ten – 57 KP, 58 Net) – Bubblicious for sure, but out in my eyes – way too high of a Net Ranking.
• Cal (19-8, 7-7 ACC – 66 KP, 59 Net) – Like the Net, down on the ACC, they are outside the Top 50 which is the mark for me.
• San Diego State (18-8, 12-4 MWC – 45 KP, 44 Net) – Loss to my alma mater will hurt them and move them further down.

Next Four Out

• VCU (21-7, 12-3 A10 – 44 KP, 45 Net) – Could not get the win over St. Louis on Friday. Their metrics are right there, but with some many other bigger conference teams on the Bubble, it will be a tall order.
• VA Tech (18-10, 7-8 ACC – 56 KP, 50 Net) – Just like Cal, they really need a surprise win over Duke, UVA or someone else, as the Clemson win looks not great now. Under .500 in the ACC will not get it done.
• Seton Hall (19-9, 9-8 Big East – 51 KP, 53 Net) – The Hall will need to slay one of the beasts of the Big East at UConn (2/28) or vs. St. Johns (3/6) to get in.
• West Virginia (16-11, 7-7 Big 12 – 59 KP, 63 Net) – They play at OK State and home vs. BYU this week, which could bolster their chances.

Big Games to Watch

• 15 St. Johns at 6 UConn (-3, 139.5 Total – estimate) – Wednesday, 2/25 at 6 PM Central on Peacock/NBCSN – A Rematch of the game in MSG earlier this month, and I think UConn will get their revenge. However, the Huskies have looked a lot more vulnerable than before the last game. The key for St. Johns is can they get scoring outside of F Zuby Ejiofor. UConn should be able to handle the St. Johns D a little better at home this time. UConn wins, Covers -3 and Under 139.5.
• 13 Michigan State at 8 Purdue (-2.5, 151.5 – estimate) – Thursday, 2/26 at 7 PM Central on Peacock – Can Sparty get a big road win? I do like how Sparty has battled back after that rough loss at Wisconsin. Still Purdue at home after getting beat by Michigan last week in the same spot seems to be a chance for the Boilers to assert their claim as the 2nd best Big Ten team. Purdue wins, Covers -2.5, Over 151.5.
• 3 Michigan at 10 Illinois (+3.5, 166.5 Total – estimate) – Friday, 2/27 at 7 PM Central on FOX – Not so fast Purdue, there is another team that has a claim at that title. Michigan can lock up the regular season title with a win. Illinois still has the best shot to stop that, and they are really good at home. I like Illinois to Cover, but not sure they can outright win this game. I will be rooting for it. So, Michigan wins, Illinois Covers +3.5, Total Over 166.5.
• 14 Kansas at 2 Arizona (-8.5, 140.5 Total – estimate) – Saturday, 2/28 at 3 PM Central on ESPN – Another Top 15 Big 12 matchup, and a revenge spot for the Wildcats who got beat in Allen Fieldhouse. Kansas bounced back in the 2nd half versus Houston, so Arizona definitely has the advantage in this game. If they can just contain the Jayhawks shooters, then I think they win this one easily. Arizona wins, Covers -8.5, Under 140.5.
• 20 Arkansas at 7 Florida (-6.5, 172.5 Total – estimate) – Saturday, 2/28 at 7:30 PM Central on ESPN – Florida has a 2 game lead over Arkansas for the SEC Regular Season Title, so this game looms large for the SEC Tournament seeding. I like how Arkansas plays, and I think they can run at the Gators’ pace. The question is can they get enough rebounds to do it against the massiver Florida frontline? Well, probably not, so Florida wins, Covers -6.5, Total Over 172.5 – gonna be a fun one to watch.
• 4 Iowa State at 2 Arizona (-4.5, 142.5 Total – estimate) – Monday, 3/2 at 8 PM Central on ESPN – Arizona has that junket of games where they host Top 15 teams two days apart this time. Arizona can solidify their control of the Big 12 Regular Season Title. I think they do it, as Iowa State needs to shoot the lights out to overcome the size advantage inside. I think on the road that is tougher task. Arizona wins, Covers -4.5, Under 142.5.

Alright, by next week, we will be in March and ready for the Madness to begin.

Wegs