We are finally here. The “Big Game” is set for Sunday, February 8th in Santa Clara, CA at Levi Stadium. It’s a little sad there is only one more game, but such is life.
Super Bowl LX Preview
The Teams
Seattle Seahawks – 1 Seed NFC – Full Season Record 16-3
The Seahawks have been on top of the league most of the year after dropping their opening game at home to SF. They played in arguably the toughest division in the NFL with 2 other playoff teams – the 49ers and Rams. Their path to the Super Bowl started in Week 16 – trailing by 16 points to the Rams at home. That comeback catapulted this team not only to the top of the NFC West, but it put them in the 1 Seed in the NFC. The next test was on the road at SF in Week 18 to secure the 1 Seed officially, which they won a tough one. The rematches in SEA in the Divisional Round was a no contest vs. the 49ers, and Rams-Seahawks III this year was a game to remember and many call the real Super Bowl.
Offense – Metrically, SEA – 7th in Yards Per Game (351.4), 3rd in Points Per Game (28.4) – the Seahawks are a balanced attack. QB Sam Darnold broke 4000 yards passing for the 2nd straight year on less attempts. The main issue with Darnold is turnovers – 14 INTs and 6 lost fumbles – which is the main Achilles heel of this team. WR Jaxson Smith-Ngiba is an All Pro and likely Offensive Player of the Year this year leading the NFL in receiving yards and scored 10 TDs. He is as dynamic as they come. Veteran WR Cooper Kupp has provided high leverage catches in multiple games – like the NFC Championship Game. The best trade deadline pickup was WR Rashid Shaheed who adds another vertical threat to the offense and a dynamic kick returner which has been a game changer – win against Rams in Week 16 and Divisional Round Game versus SF. Last but not least, RB Kenneth Walker III has been great of late. RB Zach Charbonnet went down in the Divisional Round, which hurt, but Walker dominated in that round and totalled 111 total yards in the NFC Championship Game. The O-Line for SEA is a strength, but not outstanding – Darnold has been sacked 5 times in their 2 playoff games. OC Klint Kubiak has been great this year, and he will get rewarded with a HC job (tied to the Raiders), but he has not coached in the big game.
Defense – Here is where SEA has an edge. 6th in Yards Against (285.6) and 1st in Points Against (17.2). Their defensive line is outstanding – 47 sacks on the year. The SEA do not need to blitz to get pressure on QBs and are 3rd against the run (91.9 YPG). The back end for the D is also tough with 18 INTs on the season – rookie Nick Emmanwori is a versatile safety that can cover, blitz or stop the run. HC Mike McDonald is a modern defensive wizard. In a league that promotes offense at all costs, McDonald (or Vrabel) will be the first defense-led coach to win a Super Bowl since Bill Belichick who had TB12. I think the main edge in this game is not just SEA D’s personnel, but it is the coach.
New England Patriots – 2 Seed AFC – Full Season Record 17-3
The Patriots path to Santa Clara looked a little different. Much has been publicized of NE’s weak Strength of Schedule – the third weakest in SB history I have heard quoted. BUF was the only real team they played until the postseason. Ironically, NE lost their first game (also at home) to the lowly Raiders and Game 3 versus the Steelers, but since then they are 16-1. In the playoffs, they faced a beleaguered Chargers team, and took them out. The game that was their toughest was in the Divisional Round versus the Texans – an elite D (like SEA), and they were able to overcome 3 TOs but luckily forced 5 and won 28-16. I think that game will be a good barometer for this one for their Offense. In the AFC Championship Game, they were lucky to face backup QB Jarrett Stidham and had the lead when the snow storm hit. Still, they ended the year with a 9-0 road record, which is a great feat.
Offense – NE feasted on that weak schedule – 3rd in Yards Per Game (379.4) and 2nd in Points Per Game (28.8). Second year QB Drake Maye is at worst the runner up for the NFL MVP and had a breakout year with almost 4400 yards, 31 TDs, 8 INTs. Maye also ran for 450 yards and 4 TDs, which is an element that differentiates him from other QBs. Maye does not have a stud WR like JSN, but veteran WR Stefan Diggs has been a good target, TE Hunter Henry and WR Kayshon Boutte have had big games with WR Mack Hollins showing some life at times. The rushing attack is a strength – RBs Ramondre Stevenson has been the rock for NE (despite some fumbling issues at times) and the rookie TreVeyon Henderson is as explosive as they come who actually led NE in rushing yards but has been barely part of the playoff game plans. I think he needs to be a bigger part of the game plan this week. One of the knocks on this Offense is Drake Maye was sacked 47 times this year, and he has lost 6 fumbles (3 more in the playoffs). OC Josh McDaniels is the most experienced coach in this game. He has actually coached in the Super Bowl unlike most of the other coordinators in this game.
Defense – NE’s D was 8th in Yards Against (295.2) and 4th in Points Against (18.8) – the strength of the Patriots is the rush D – DE Milton Williams is a tough run end with him in the lineup, they are more like a Top 5 unit instead of Top 10. In the 3 playoff games, they have given up 71.3 YPG and against Chargers and Texans it was 33 YPG. Now, LB Robert Spillane may play, but he injured his ankle in the AFC Championship Game, which may matter. On the passing game, CB Christian Gonzalez is a top cover corner. The Pass Rush is mid-tier with 35 sacks on the season, but they have played well in the playoffs with 12 in 3 games. That trend will need to continue. The D did not force a ton of TOs – just 19, but their style is to make an Offense earn every yard, but again they have been much better in the playoffs with 8 in just 3 games. HC Mike Vrabel is a defensive guy who clearly is getting the most out of his guys in the playoffs.
Key Matchups
NE Rush D vs. SEA Rush O – If the Patriots can stop the run effectively, then pushing Kubiak to call a lot of passing plays. Personally, I do not think SEA wants Sam Darnold to throw the ball 45 times in this game. That is a recipe for turnovers. As good as Darnold has played, he is better when the Offense is balanced.
SEA Pass D vs. NE Pass O – Drake Maye is elite against the blitz. He has been able to push the ball down the field to Boutte and Diggs against the blitz. SEA will need to get to Maye with their Front 4 and force Maye to beat more zone coverage rather than one on one coverage against the blitz. I think SEA can do that, but if the NE O-Line can hold up against Lawrence, Williams and Murphy, then NE will be right there in this one.
Difference Makers – To me, there are 2 guys to watch on who will flip the game
- WR/Returner Rashid Shaheed – He is explosive and capable of making a huge play. He can return a kick (NE should never kick to him), but he can get an explosive play in the passing or run game – 51 yards on the 1st drive in the NFC Champ Game. I think if he makes another big play, that will take pressure off JSN and Darnold.
- RB TreVeyon Henderson – Can NE please get this guy the ball? Stevenson is fine. He is a plodder. He can get a tough year, but he is not dynamic enough to elude the fast SEA D. Henderson needs to touch the ball 8-10 times on Sunday – in the passing game is fine – screens, out and ups or off script runs. Drake Maye cannot do it all.
Favorite Props:
- WR Kayshon Boutte – Over Receiving Yards 30+ (Ladder up to 50+) and 1st and anytime TD
- QB Drake Maye – Over Rushing Yards 35.5 (ladder if available)
- WR Rashid Shaheed – Over Total Yards 32.5 (Ladder to 50+)
- RB TreVeyon Henderson – Over Rushing 17.5 (Total Yards Over if you can find it, which I like better)
- RB Kenneth Walker – Under 74.5
Final Analysis
As I wrote last week, these were my top rated teams going into the playoffs – NE 4.0 and SEA 4.33 – so, the Index picks the Pats in the game. I do think the soft schedule has to be considered here, but the line is SEA -4.5. It is just too many points. NE will play tough in this game. Can they get blown out? Of course, they can. There are 2 likely outcomes – SEA blow out or close game. I would be shocked if SEA gets blown out here. However, the main handicap here is this – will Sam Darnold turn the ball over? He has not had a turnover in the playoffs, but he did all season. He imploded last year in big games. NE has been forcing TOs against inferior opponents, but they have turned up the D – 8 TOs, 12 sacks way ahead of their regular season rate. Darnold will turn the ball over, but maybe not enough to turn the tide in this game.
SEA needs to mix in the run, despite the NE run D being tough to keep the NE D honest. NE has to protect Maye against the SEA Front 4 and make explosive plays because if they try to grind SEA like they have done against the Chargers, Broncos and Texans, they will lose. They are the less talented team. Maye could make some plays on his own, but he cannot beat this D without other guys making plays. For NE to be competitive, they need to hit some of those explosives to get SEA to open up the offense for TOs.
Last comment here – I hate when the entire world takes a team like SEA. It is almost never correct. SEA is a great team, no doubt, but McDaniels has been there. Vrabel will have his team fired up. HC Mike McDonald is a really good coach, and I think ultimately SEA has the edge. So, SEA should win, but I’m taking NE +4.5 (and I expect it to go up by kickoff so I will wait). Total Under 45.5. Super Bowls have tended to go over, especially in closely contested games, but I’m seeing a tough game here.
SEA wins, NE +4.5, Total Under 45.5 – MVP – I want JSN (17-1 ticket), but will likely be Darnold (+125)
Enjoy the game.
Wegs