The season goes from in full swing one minute, then in 3 short weeks we go from 32 to 14 to 2. It’s abrupt.
Championship Sunday Recap
- Patriots Beat the Storm – The AFC Championship was a slugfest. As most of the 2 Seed Pats’ games go, it may not be pretty, but they win. Entering the 1 Seed Broncos were up against it, no Bo Nix, missing a WR and giving up 30 points a game to top teams since their Bye Week, but give DEN credit, they came out strong. QB Jarrett Stidham had a good 2nd drive hitting a deep ball and TD pass to grab the lead early. The Broncos even had a chance to tack on more points with a critical 4th and 1 at the NE 14, but HC Sean Payton elected to go for it and the Pats held strong with a good stand. The DEN D played top notch, but Stidham (133 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 Fumble) made a terrible play deep in his own territory with a reversed call for a fumble setting up NE for a tying TD. Both teams missed FGs at the end of the half, so they were tied at 7-7. In the 2nd half, NE was able to create some offense, as QB Drake Maye (86 yards passing, 65 yards rushing, 1 TD) used his legs to pick up a 1st down on 3rd and 9 for 28 yards. Then, he converted another 3rd and 10 to Hunter Henry for the first down. The drive stalled for a FG, but that was all they needed, as the weather turned into a white out. Both teams missed FGs in the wind and the blowing snow. DEN’s last gasp effort resulted in a Stidham INT that iced the game. NE won, 10-7, and the Patriots return to the SB for the first time since the Brady era and just 2 years post Bill Belichick.
- Seahawks Take the Rubber Game – The NFC West was on full display in the NFC Championship game. 5 Seed Rams and their #1 Offense facing off yet again against the 1 Seed SEA #1 Scoring D. Well, in this game, it was the Seahawks Offense that led the day. QB Sam Darnold (346 yards, 3 TDs, 0 Ints) played extremely well in the big game hitting his favorite target WR Jaxson Smith-Ngiba (10 catches, 153 yards, 1 TD) early and often including a TD at the end of the half to take the 17-13 lead. In the 2nd half, a muffed punt cost the Rams dearly, as a first drive stop turned into another SEA TD and a two score advantage at 24-13. Still, the likely MVP, QB Matthew Stafford left nothing on the field, as he found both WRs Puka Nacua (9 catches, 165 yards, 1 TD) and Davante Adams (4 catches, 89 yards, 1 TD) for TDs in the 3rd Quarter (the Nacua TD after a bad taunting call on SEA extending the drive). Then, SEA’s D took over. After the Rams stopped the SEA O, Stafford (374 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) led his team on a 14 play, 84 yard drive including a 4th and 1 run to convert at the SEA 26. However, SEA found their footing and were able to get the stop at their own 6 yard line with back to back incompletions from Stafford with 4:54 left in the game. On the subsequent drive, Darnold hit former Ram WR Cooper Kupp (4 catches, 36 yards, 1 TD) for a critical 1st down on a 3rd and 7 with 3:20 left in the game. Rams’ HC Sean McVay opted to not use his challenge instead of his 2nd timeout, and the replay room did not reverse the call which was very close to the line to gain. Then, SEA was able to grind the clock down to just 25 seconds before giving the ball back to the Rams at their own 7, and after a Nacua catch on the sideline was ruled inbounds, the game was over, SEA won, 31-27. SEA gets back to the Super Bowl for a rematch of their last trip in 2015 in Super Bowl XLIX.
Predictions: S/U 2-0, ATS 2-0, Totals 1-1 – lone miss was the Over in LAR-SEA game
Early Super Bowl Review
Date/Time: Sunday, February 8th at 5:30 PM Central
Patriots vs. Seahawks (-4.5, 45.5 Total) – NBC/Telemundo
It is not a surprise when you review the metrics that these are the top 2 teams in the Wegs Playoff Index – NE 4.00 vs. SEA 4.33. I did think NE would stub their toe along the way with their weak Strength of Schedule, but trust the Index. However, it is hard to deny NE went 9-0 on the road this season. That is not an easy feat. NE on Offense with that schedule was able to average 379.4 YPG (3rd in the NFL) and 2nd in PPG (28.8). Now, they have had a rather easy path to the big game, as they have not faced a top offense in the playoffs. They have played 3 Top 10 defenses though and only averaging 18.0 PPG – so can they get to over 20 in this game with a defensive score or short field like against HOU and DEN? Their D has been great averaging 8.7 PPG in the playoffs, but against compromised offenses. As I’ve written, the Patriots do not care if they win ugly, as long as they win. It has happened before, but very rare that a first year head coach has reached a Super Bowl like Mike Vrabel, the last being Gary Kubiak in DEN (SB 50). Plus, QB Drake Maye is the 2nd youngest QB to reach the Super Bowl in NFL history (Dan Marino in 1984 Season) – Maye would be the youngest to win it, if the Patriots are successful (Ben Roethlisberger PIT). For the Patriots to win, they will need to find a way to run against this ferocious SEA defensive front. Sure, Drake Maye will need to make plays with his arm and legs. I think OC Josh McDaniels will need to be on his game, as in the past 3 games he just needed to do enough to win. In this game, points will be scored.
SEA is the team to beat. They have that D – 6th Yards Against and 1st in Points Against (17.2 PPG), and they bring a very good O (SEA is 8th on O YPG and 3rd in Scoring) with an All Pro WR in Jaxon Smith-Ngiba. The main knock on the Seahawks is the QB in Sam Darnold. The spectre of his collapse last year and his early career struggles will be a story this next 2 weeks. Darnold had 14 INTs during the regular season. He has been able to play mistake-free football in the first two playoff games. The handicap on SEA is typically pretty simple – if Darnold doesn’t turn the ball over, then they win. The SEA D can overcome a lot, but a multiple TO game is a tough thing to do. NE has benefitted from that in all of the playoff games so far, so in order to give the Pats a shot, they will need the bad Darnold to be in Santa Clara. The main difference between the Seahawks and the Pats’ opponents so far is SEA has a very good running game. Their WRs are good for sure, but the O Line will be game for the tough Patriots’ run defense. So, as most games go, it will be won between the trenches.
My early take on the game is that SEA is the better team, despite the Wegs Playoff Index, but the line may be a little too far. I do expect the public to bet SEA heavily, so if you like the Patriots in this game, then you should wait to get a better number. Meanwhile, the SEA fans should take the early line before it grows to -5 or -5.5 by kickoff.
Next week, I’ll dig more into my betting approach to the game plus a multitude of prop bets that I will be targeting.
Take a breather after such an exciting playoff stretch.
Wegs
Bronco ‘D’ kept the game close but Stidham, even with his 2 best plays led to a 7-0 lead, was not competitive. Vrabel had a good plan to pressure Stidham who was not used to REAL game speed. I have NO doubt that DEN would have won this game with NIX at QB. Better luck next year !!!!
SEA vs LA Rams games don’t get much better than this, the ‘rubber’ match of the season came down to a 4th down play. Did McDonald outsmart McVay with his defense coverage ??? Looked like MAX blitz but dropped into 8 man zone coverage.
SEA should beat Pats by MORE than the 5.5 point spread !!!!