What a weekend of games. A couple of OTs for our pleasure.
Divisional Round Recap
- Broncos Survive – This was a great way to start the weekend. 6 Seed BUF goes to 1 Seed DEN for a clash of titans. In the first half, it was a more defensive battle, until QB Bo Nix led his team to a late TD as he hit WR Lil’Jordan Humphrey for a 29 yard TD with 22 seconds left in the half. Then, QB Josh Allen lost his mind on a run where he fumbled and literally threw the ball back 15 yards to set up a 50 yard FG at the end of the half for DEN and a 20-10 lead. In the 2nd half, BUF got its bearings after a DEN FG took the lead out to 23-10, Allen led 2 TD drives to take the lead early in the 4th Quarter at 24-23. Another stop by the BUF D led to a 13 play, 68 yard drive to the DEN 12 yard line, and HC Sean McDermott decided to kick the FG to go up 27-23 on 4th and 8. Nix did it again driving his team and hitting yet another bomb to WR Marvin Mims this time for a 26 yard TD to take the lead, 30-27 with 55 seconds to go in regulation. No problem, Allen would take his team into FG range quickly with 24 seconds remaining. On 3rd Down, Allen missed a wide open TE Dawson Knox that would have effectively ended the game, so BUF kicked a FG to force OT. In OT, BUF forced a quick DEN stop. BUF took over and was driving, then on 3rd and 11 from their own 36 yard line, Allen threw a deep ball to WR Brandin Cooks who jumped, grabbed the ball, went to the ground, and CB J McMillan stripped the ball clean. The officials called it an INT on the field. Replays showed Cooks down on the ground, but the play was not really reviewed. McDermott called a timeout, argued the call, but DEN was given the ball without any further explanation. DEN drove and got in position for a GW FG thanks to not one but two DPIs when not a single penalty was a called since the 11:54 mark in the 3rd Quarter!! The 2nd one was legit, but the first one was not, yes there was a late hit on Nix, but there were no calls on DEN D throughout the game. However, BUF turned the ball over 5 times (2 fumbles for Allen, 1 for Cook and 2 INTs from Allen), which despite putting up 449 yards against this vaunted DEN D, could not be overcome. DEN won, 33-30, but on the QB Sweep prior to the 2nd DPI, Bo Nix broke a bone in his ankle and is now out for the rest of the playoffs, as they advance to the AFC Championship Game and host for the first time since 2016 (their last SB win). Plus, BUF’s HC Sean McDermott is out of a job on today.
- Seahawks Throttle SF – The one game that was over early was the 1 Seed SEA vs. 6 SF game. The Seahawks opened the game with a KO Return TD by Rashid Shaheed which set the tone. SEA led 17-0 at the end of the 1st Quarter. SF was able to muster a couple of FGs, but after yet another SEA TD by RB Kenneth Walker (116 yards rushing, 3 TDs), it was 24-6 at the half and effectively over. In the 2nd half, Walker would add 2 more TDs and the route was complete, 41-6. The domination of the D – 3 TOs – and special teams permitted the SEA O to only need 281 yards on 52 plays to put up 41 points. The will host the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 2015 (their last SB appearance).
- NE Advances – It was not a pretty game, but with snow falling in Foxboro, the 2 Seed Patriots hosted the 5 Seed Texans. The first half was a turnover fest. HOU’s QB CJ Stroud was just awful. After HOU turned the ball over, but immediately took the ball back in the 1st Quarter, Stroud hit WR Christian Kirk for a TD to go ahead, 10-7. Then, he lost his mind. Stroud threw 3 INTs on his next 7 dropbacks including a Pick 6, which he was hit while throwing the ball. The HOU D miraculously was able to hold on a few of them, and forced a late INT by QB Drake Maye, but NE led 21-10 at the half. Still, CJ Stroud threw 4 total INTs, which is the worst 1st half performance in the playoffs since the NFL merger. In the 2nd half, Stroud settled down, and they settled for a FG on their first drive. Then, HOU forced another fumble by Drake Maye (4 fumbles, 2 lost, 1 INT), but RB Woody Marks fumbled it back again at the NE 19 – which was the story all day. HOU would get another FG to get to 21-16, but NE finally got a drive together, 6 plays, 71 yards and the catch of the weekend by WR Kayshon Boutte who one handed the ball with a HOU defender draped on him for the TD. NE held HOU scoreless in the 4th, won 28-16. NE advances to the AFC Championship Game since 2019 (their last SB win).
- Rams Pushed to the Limit – The 2 Seed Bears hosted the 5 Seed Rams in this one. It was very cold and the conditions affected the offenses. CHI would advance on their first drive to the LA 23 yard line, but on 4th and 2 went for it, QB Caleb Williams threw an INT. The Rams answered with a 14 play 85 yard drive TD as RB Kyren Williams (21 carries, 87 yards, 2 TDs, plus 30 yards receiving) ran one in from 4 yards out. Then it was a punt fest until the Bears drove yet again to the Rams 32, went for 4th and 1, but were stuffed on the run. CHI was able to get a FG on their next drive only to be answered by the Rams to be tied at the half, 10-10. In the 2nd half, with the snow coming down and winds picking up, no points by either team in the 3rd. Finally, the Rams were able to put together a 14 play, 91 yard drive mainly by Williams who had 29 yards on the ground and the eventual TD. During that drive, there was a call that seemed like the DEN game, as the Bears stripped WR Davante Adams, but the catch was upheld. The Bears went the full field, but yet again on 4th Down, this time 4th and Goal at the LA 2, had the pass broken up for the stop with 3:06 remaining in regulation. The Rams were not able to run out the clock, so the Bears had one more shot. From the 50, the Bears trailed 17-10 with 2 minutes to go. Williams hit TE Colston Loveland for 18, then RB Deandre Swift ran for 12, next Williams to WR Luther Burden for 6 setting up 2nd and 4 at the Rams 14 yard line. AFter 2 incompletions by Williams, CHI had a 4th and 4 with 27 seconds to go in the game. Caleb Williams took the snap and was immediately flushed while he ran backwards, spun, then from the now 40 yard line, he threw it up off his back foot to the left corner of the end zone over the Rams’ CB finding TE Cole Kmet for a game tying TD!!!!! Bedlam – I was at a bar and the entire place was jumping, hugging and screaming. CHI hit the XP, and LA kneeled down to set up OT. In OT, the Bears stopped the Rams immediately. The Bears got 2 first downs, and with the ball at midfield on 2nd and 8, Williams threw the ball to the right side deep anticipating a receiver to get there, but the Rams’ Safety, Kamren Curl, made a great INT diving to the ground. The Rams then moved into FG Range and K Harrison Mevis nailed the 42 yard FG to win in OT, 20-17. A heartbreaker for the Bears’ Faithful, but the Rams return to the NFC Championship game for the first time since 2022 (Rams last SB win).
Predictions: Some tough ones this week, but dead even – S/U 2-2, ATS 2-2, Totals 2-2. So, a good stat – winning teams this weekend had a +12 TO Differential (16-4). The most important stat in a playoff game is TOs.
Championship Sunday Preview
We are down to two games – 4 teams for the title. The Top 3 teams of the Index (NE, SEA and LAR) with DEN filling out the card.
- 2 Patriots at 1 Broncos (+5.5, 42.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/25 at 2 PM Central on CBS/Paramount Plus – So, this game changes fundamentally with QB Bo Nix out with the ankle injury. Enter QB Jarrett Stidham (I had to look up the spelling) who played for Baylor and Auburn in college, drafted in the 4th Round by the Patriots in 2019, 4 career starts with DEN – his last start was in 2023 (pre-Nix). He hasn’t thrown a pass in a regular season (or playoff) game since the end of the 2023 season. So, DEN will need to rely on the D, which played terribly against BUF. Still, does Stidham move the line -6 or -7? NE is rightfully favored here, and how the Patriots can make the Super Bowl against 3 inferior offenses has to be the NFL Gods’ work. Drake Maye has not played well – way too many fumbles and TOs (Sacked 10 times, 6 fumbles, 3 lost, 2 INT in the first 2 games). The NE D has played well, but not really tested to date, and with Stidham at QB, they will not be again. HC Sean Payton will actually need to call a good game – run the ball, good pass looks to build a lead and let the D hunt down Maye for sacks and TOs. I think in the BUF game Payton got a pass due to the BUF TOs, he only rushed for 70 yards against a bad run D. Patriots should win this game (and are probably at least a 5 point dog in the Super Bowl) and I’ll pick them to win, but DEN +5.5 is the side for me – I think they will play spirited but not enough to win, Total Under 42.5.
- 5 Rams at 1 Seahawks (-2.5, 47.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/25 at 5:30 PM Central on FOX – To me, here is the Super Bowl just 2 weeks early. These teams have faced off twice, and both games were close. Game 1 – Darnold imploded with 4 INTs, but the D was great to give SEA a chance. The Rams should have swept the Seahawks, but found a way to blow a 16 point lead in SEA as Stafford threw for over 450 yards. Clearly, the Seahawks have played the best of the 4 teams remaining in the playoffs, but SF was no match for this defensive front. In the first 2 meetings, SEA did not sack QB Matthew Stafford, that will not happen on Sunday. SEA is hungry. SEA found their run game, so as all SEA games, it comes down to if QB Sam Darnold can play TO-free, then they will likely win the game. The most important unit in this game is the Rams’ D. Can they stop the run? CHI was able to put up 160 yards on the ground – SEA has run on them both times. SEA needs to pound that Rams’ Front. The Rams have experience against the SEA D, but that stadium will be rocking plus it’s the Rams’ 3rd straight road game. Stafford can definitely flip this result and has both Puka and Adams healthy, but McVay will need to be in his bag this time (not like at CHI). I’m going to go against my Playoff Preview pick here and pick SEA to win this game, SEA Covers -2.5, Total Under 47.5.
Only 3 games left.
Wegs