NFL Playoffs: Great Theater in the WC/Divisional Preview

The NFL got exactly what they wanted. Competitive games that have come down to final drives. Incredible.

Super Wildcard Weekend Recap

• Rams Survive – It wasn’t pretty. In fact, the 5 Seed Rams led 17-7, and it looked grim for the home 4 Seed Panthers. Well, CAR has been resilient all year at home. CAR scored at the end of the half to cut the lead to 3 at 17-14 with a QB Bryce Young (264 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT, 24 yards rushing) run. In the 2nd half, It became a seesaw battle. CAR took the lead early in the 4th Quarter, 24-20 with a RB Chuba Hubbard TD. Then, likely MVP Matthew Stafford (304 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT) hit RB Kyrien Williams for a TD pass with 8:47 remaining in the 4th. Young would answer with a TD to WR Jalen Coker (9 catches, 134 yards, 1 TD) to take the lead with 2:39 remaining in the game. Finally, Stafford led a clutch drive with a TD to TE Cody Parkinson with 38 seconds to get the eventual win, 34-31 to advance.
• Cardiac Bears Again – Even after a first drive FG to start, the 2 Seed Bears fell behind big again to the 7 Seed Packers, 21-3, as QB Jordan Love (323 yards passing, 4 TDs, 0 INTs) hit 3 different WRs to build that lead at the half. The Bears needed to make adjustments, and they did. The D finally stonewalled the Pack on their first 4 drives of the 2nd half, and even though the Bears could not cash in on deep drives, they cut the lead to 21-9 entering the 4th Quarter. After that 4th stop, the CHI finally got a TD, as QB Caleb Williams (361 yards passing, 2 TDs, 2 INTs) drove them down, and RB D’Andre Swift ran in a TD with 10:12 left in the game cutting the led to 21-16. GB finally answered with a TD drive as rookie WR Matthew Golden (4 catches, 84 yards, 1 TD) broke three tackles along the sideline for a TD reception to stretch the lead back to 11 (GB missed the PAT) with 6:36 left on the clock. The Bears answered after Williams made an amazing throw on 4th and 8 to keep the drive alive, and then WR Olamide Zaccheaus for a TD with 4:18 left. GB drove again, but missed a FG, so CHI wouldn’t be denied and scored again on the subsequent drive, perhaps too quickly when Williams hit WR DJ Moore (6 catches, 64 yards, 1 TD) for a go ahead TD with 1:43 to go. GB’s last drive failed, and CHI completed yet another impossible comeback, 31-27. The Bears get their first playoff win since 2011 and avenge that same year’s playoff loss at Soldier Field.
• Bills Bang Past Jags – 6 Seed BUF opened as the favorite, but closed as the dog at 3 Seed JAC. It was a slow start for both teams, but the Bills took the lead at the half with QB Josh Allen’s run to take the lead, who got banged up on the play, 10-7 at the half. Another slower 3rd quarter with the teams trading FGs led to a competitive 4th. The Jags drove 62 yards ending in a QB Trevor Lawrence (207 yards passing, 3 TDs, 2 INTs, 31 yards rushing) to rookie WR Parker Washington (7 catches, 107 yards, 1 TD) TD to take the lead, 17-13. BUF answered with a 9 play 65 yard drive to take the lead back with an Allen (273 yards passing, 1 TD, 0 INT, 33 yards rushing 2 TDs) to TE Dalton Kincaid TD, 20-17. Not to be outdone, JAC took 10 plays and 77 yards for another TD, as Lawrence hit RB Travis Etienne (116 total yards, 1 TD) for another go ahead TD pass, Jags led, 24-20. Could JAC get a stop? Nope, Josh Allen did it again, 9 plays, 66 yards including ranging back near midfield against the blitz hitting WR Brandin Cooks for 36 yards setting up an eventual Allen rushing TD to take the lead, 27-24 with 64 ticks remaining. The Jags finally blinked on the next drive as Lawrence’s first pass was tipped and intercepted to seal the game, and the Bills get their first road win since the 1992-93 season in the playoffs and Josh Allen’s first game winning drive in the playoffs in his career.
• 49ers KO The Champs – It was not a pretty game, a defensive battle. The 3 Seed Eagles, as defending champs, needed to slow down the 6 Seeded SF O. Well, SF came out and scored a TD on their first drive after connecting to WR Demarcus Robinson for a deep crosser then later for the TD. PHI answered, but as the game wore on, the PHI O was 5 of 16 on 3rd downs. In the 2nd half, HC Kyle Shanahan dialed up a trick play where WR Jauan Jennings on a reverse hit RB Christian McCaffery for a TD pass that gave SF the lead, 17-16 with 14:52 left. PHI was able to grab the lead with a FG to lead, 19-17 with 8:04. However, that PHI D could not stop a 10 play, 66 yard TD drive that gave SF the lead, 23-19 with 2:54. The Eagles had one more shot, but came up short at the SF 21 on 4th and 11, and the game was over. SF heads to SEA.
• Patriots Shutdown Chargers – Another gritty matchup on SNF this time. 2 Seed NE was going for their first win in the playoffs since Brady was at QB in 2019 (2018 season). The 7 Seed Chargers brought their tough D to NE, and unfortunately could not muster enough Offense to be competitive. Sure, QB Drake Maye was decent, more on the ground with 7 carries for 69 yards and added a TD passing. However, the story was the NE D, they sacked QB Justin Herbert 6 times and holding the Chargers to 1 of 10 on 3rd down, and LA could not take advantage of 2 NE TOs – one in the red zone. NE won, 16-3, and they will host….
• Texans Grind to a Win – MNF was not a work of art for 4 Seed PIT or 5 Seed HOU, as both team struggled offensively against tough defenses. HOU’s top D did what they could, as their QB CJ Stroud turned the ball over again and again (3 total) – one leading to a PIT FG, another in the Red Zone, and that did not include some dropped snaps. So, HOU gave them opportunities, but the Steelers couldn’t take advantage as the Texans led at the half, 7-6 and deep into the 3rd quarter. The HOU pass rush was relentless on QB Aaron Rodgers sacking him 4 times, and one time resulted in a sack, fumbler, scoop and score for HOU extending their lead from 10-6 to 17-6, which proved insurmountable, as HOU tacked on a rushing TD and a Pick 6 late. We may have seen the last of Aaron Rodgers in the NFL. For HOU, it wasn’t pretty, but it never is, as they won, 30-6. Plus, HC Mike Tomlin steps down from the Steelers after this loss after 19 years.

Predictions: Well, the Jags killed my AFC side Super Bowl predictions. Overall, S/U 4-2, ATS 3-3, Totals 4-2

Divisional Round Matchups

• 6 Bills at 1 Broncos (+1.5, 46.5 Total) – Saturday, 1/17 at 3:30 PM on CBS/Paramount – I’m not much of a “The NFL is rigged” guy, but I’m sure the NFL and NBC would love to see the Bills in the Super Bowl again. QB Josh Allen is banged up (even more in JAC), but he is still the best QB in the playoffs. So, if anyone can go into DEN and win, then it is Allen. DEN will need to run the ball to beat the Bills. BUF’s Pass D is high end, and they showed it in JAC. If you allow BUF to rush the passer and play tough D behind it, then DEN will struggle. Allen has struggled against defensive fronts that can rush without blitzing, like HOU, so if DEN can do that, I like them to be competitive. The Broncos are the sharp side, and probably the smart play. I just have that sinking feeling, that BUF and Allen see this as their only year to win the AFC – without Burrow, Jackson and Mahomes. The spread is too high again here (I have DEN being favored in my numbers), but with such a short spread, you just need to pick the winner. So, I’m picking BUF to win, Cover -1.5, Total Over 46.5.
• 6 49ers at 1 Seahawks (-7.5, 44.5 Total) – Saturday, 1/17 at 7 PM on FOX – A rematch from the game in Week 18 when SEA slowed that SF O to a crawl. I feel bad for the 49ers. They have played so well despite losing players every single week, this last game losing TE George Kittle (Achilles). At some point those injuries cost you, and this is the game. SEA will be rocking, and unless RB Christian McCaffrey breaks some long runs against this ferocious front or QB Sam Darnold completely melts down (SF can’t really rush the passer though), SEA is going to work SF in this one. I’ll take SEA to win, SEA -7.5, Under 44.5.
• 5 Texans at 2 Patriots (-3, 41 Total) – Sunday, 1/18 at 2 PM on ABC/ESPN – The soft NE schedule did not stop them from dominating the Chargers. Maye was able to overcome TOs, so perhaps that comes back to haunt him this week. However, it is not like the HOU O is better than the Chargers. It does seem that CBS would love to see a BUF at NE AFC Championship game. Much to my chagrin, I think NE will likely win this game. However, HOU’s D will need to dominate the game again for them to win, which they have done repeatedly. The Nico Collins concussion looms large for the Texans. CJ Stroud played probably the worst QB performance for a winning QB in playoff history. So, he should improve, I think. QB Drake Maye is used to getting hit, so can NE make those big plays and run the ball against this D? I do like HOU as a dog in this matchup, so I’m going to stick with HOU winning this game, despite the script crowd and CBS ratings, HOU +3, Total Under 41.
• 5 Rams at 2 Bears (+3.5, 48.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/18 at 5:30 PM on NBC – The Cardiac Bears continue to defy the experts (not me, but others). The Rams are the best team to me in the NFL, so yes, they should be favored in this matchup, but by -3.5 (opened -4.5)? That is too many, it should be -2.5 or less. The last time the Bears played the Rams in the playoffs was in 1986 40 years ago (1985 season) when the Bears beat RB Eric Dickerson in the cold to go to Super Bowl XX. I think the colder temps will slow down the Rams some in this one, so even though the Bears D can be leaky, I like the game Under (although it opened 51 and has dropped). It should be a fun game, again for the Bears’ faithful. This team never gives up and believes in HC Ben Johnson. If DC Dennis Allen can come up with a game plan to slow down Puka Nacua, then the Bears will push it to the limit. Still I have to pick the Rams to win, CHI +3.5, Total Under 48.5.

Here we go again.

Wegs