NFL Playoffs: Bracket and Predictions

The regular season is over, and one we move to the real season to determine a winner.

Regular Season Recap

It was definitely a changing of the guard in the NFL this year. This will be the first season that neither the Chiefs nor Ravens have made the playoffs since 2007. That’s insane, and yes, BAL should have made that last kick, but it was representative of their disappointing season. Tampa missed the playoffs for the first time since 2019, as they missed out on the tiebreaker, despite beating CAR on Saturday. Only 1 team (PHI) was the favorite to win their division at the start of the season and actually did it. Overall, my picks couldn’t hit last year’s overall record, but given the calamity of the season, 58.30% isn’t bad.

The Playoff Bracket

I’ll layout my Playoff Bracket here, but each week, as the results come in, I’ll talk about bets. Here is the Wegs Playoff Index based on their final statistics against the 14 teams in the field.

AFC

1 Seed – Denver Broncos 14-3 (AFC +230, Super Bowl +650) – Bye – 2nd Best Yards Against and 3rd in Points Against, so led by the D. QB Bo Nix turns the ball over too much for my liking (3rd worst TO Margin). DEN has beaten – PHI, HOU, GB and LAC.

2 Seed – New England Patriots 14-3 (AFC +400, SB +1000) – The top team in the Index with the 2nd best Offense (both categories), 3rd best Point Differential and solid on D. The only issue here is they had the easiest Strength of Schedule of any team in the field, which looms large historically in the playoffs. They played only 2 good QBs this year – Allen twice and Lamar Jackson for just 12 plays. NE has beaten – CAR and BUF.

3 Seed – Jacksonville Jaguars 13-4 (AFC +600, SB +1400) – The Jags are as balanced a team as anyone (NE is the best). They are not gaudy per the Index, but they are riding an 8 game win streak, and they have beaten the DEN, HOU, LAC and SF.

4 Seed – Pittsburgh Steelers 10-7 (AFC +1800, SB +5000) – They won on a miracle, but they won nonetheless. Statistically not a good team, only positive stat is +12 TO Margin, so if they can force some TOs maybe Rodgers has some magic left. PIT only beat NE in Week 3, but no other playoff teams since.

5 Seed – Houston Texans 12-5 (AFC +475, SB +1200) – Name a team that has won 9 straight games and has NOT won their division in the history of the NFL….HOU. They finished as the #1 D Yards Against and 2nd Points Against, 2nd in TO Margin. As I’ve said, if they score 21 points or more per game, they should win every game, but that will be tough in some matchups. HOU has beaten – JAC, SF, BUF and LAC.

6 Seed – Buffalo Bills 12-5 (AFC +475, SB +1000) – The Bills statistically look better than they have played as they are Top 5 in 4 categories. However, they are literally a one man show, so they will need better D and RB James Cook to be good. BUF beat – CAR, PIT, NE.

7 Seed – Los Angeles Chargers 11-6 (AFC +1200, SB +3000) – Another playoff campaign for HC Jim Harbaugh. Another team that leads with its D, and the O tailed off. They will need QB Justin Herbert to play at an elite level. LAC beat – DEN, PIT, PHI.

Predictions

Wild Card

• 2 Patriots beat 7 Chargers (Sunday, 1/11 at 7 PM on NBC) – I do not hate the Chargers (+3.5 bet), as I expect some level of jitters for the NE team and QB Drake Maye against that D. Herbert has to improve upon last year’s horrible showing. NE wins, LAC +3.5, Under 46.5.
• 3 Jags beat 6 Bills (Sunday, 1/11 at 12 Noon on CBS/Paramount) – The Jags are the better team here, and they are getting disrespected in the marketplace (JAC +1 or 1.5 – opened +2). JAC’s D against the run is really good, so BUF will need to be all Josh Allen. I think this will be a fun game to watch. Jags win, JAC +1, Total Over 51.5.
• 5 Texans beat 4 Steelers (Monday, 1/12 at 7:15 PM on ABC/ESPN) – Yep, PIT hasn’t lost an MNF game at home since 1990 or something. It is an incredible stat, but the Steelers are a flawed team. HOU’s D should be able to pressure Rodgers, so unless they can run for 150 yards, then the PIT D will need to hold the Texans to under 20 points to win. I don’t see it. HOU wins, HOU -3 (opened -3.5 and liked PIT +3.5), Total Under 39.5.

Divisional Round

• 5 Texans beat 1 Broncos – Probably my toughest pick in the bracket. The Texans had DEN beat in HOU earlier this year (HOU’s last loss), but kept settling for FGs. I just think Bo Nix will turn the ball over at the wrong time. Sure, CJ Stroud could do the same, but he has played decent in playoff games before. I trust him and the HOU D. Even if DEN advances, they are not a SB team to me.
• 3 Jags beat 2 Patriots – Yes, the Jags, of course, they could get knocked off by BUF Wild Card weekend, but I think they will take apart the NE D. Drake Maye’s 2nd playoff start will be better, but their weak SOS will come back to haunt them here.

AFC Title Game

• 3 Jags beat 5 Texans – It is like picking between your children. I do love HOU, and I want them to win this game. However, I think there is a reason that the Jags were up by 21 points in that game in HOU (their last loss). This time you have to worry about how the O is running if you are HOU. Plus, JAC has seen this D twice this year. Seems a little nuts, but I think in this year the Jags have the most complete AFC Team.

NFC

1 Seed – Seattle Seahawks 14-3 (NFC +175, SB +400) – Bye – The Seahawks ran the gauntlet of the NFC West and their D leads in Points Against, 3rd in Points Scored and 1st in Point Differential – the negative is the -3 TO Margin aka Darnold. SEA has beaten – PIT, JAC, HOU, LAR, CAR and SF.

2 Seed – Chicago Bears 11-6 (NFC +900, SB +2000) – The Cardiac Bears couldn’t pull it off in Week 18 but PHI dropped their game to keep them in the 2 Seed. 1st in TO Differential at 22!!! The main issue is the Bears D is the worst in Yards Against and Points Allowed in the entire 14 team field (by 1.6 points to the next team). CHI has beaten – PIT, PHI, GB.

3 Seed – Philadelphia Eagles 11-6 (NFC +450, SB +900) – PHI is the defending champ, so a team needs to outplay them. However, if the O can put up points (and play 2 full halves of football), then the Eagles can win it again. PHI beat – LAR, GB, BUF.

4 Seed – Carolina Panthers 8-9 (NFC +6000, SB +15000) – Yep, a team under .500, which has happened from time to time, but CAR is the worst O of the 14 teams and of course last in Point Differential. It would be a huge miracle for this team to win a game. CAR has beaten – GB and LAR (their opponent, however).

5 Seed – Los Angeles Rams 12-5 (NFC +240, SB +425) – The Rams are the Top O in the playoffs in both Yards and Scoring, 2nd in Point Differential, but their D gives up the 11th most yards. That will be big down the line. A side note, I was incorrect last week thinking they were locked into the 6 Seed, as the new tiebreaker is Common Opponents Record over Conference Record. LAR beat – HOU, JAC, SF, SEA.

6 Seed – San Francisco 49ers 12-5 (NFC +1100, SB +2200) – The SF O got hot down the stretch, but against a real D, they were shutdown. The -6 TO Differential is the worst, so unless the D gets better, Purdy has to play perfect. SF has beaten – SEA, LAR, CAR, CHI.

7 Seed – Green Bay Packers 9-7-1 (NFC +1000, SB +2200) – So strange that 4 weeks ago, they were still in the mix for the 1 Seed. The Pack’s injuries are their story. No interesting metrics for them, but perhaps they can get back to pre-Micah injury football. GB beat – PIT and CHI.

Predictions

Wild Card

• 2 Bears beat 7 Packers – Yes, the Pack can win this game. They should have swept the Bears, but it is hard to trust them in this one. The line is confusing and depends on the book you look at – GB opened a favorite and are still favored in places, but the Bears are favored at others. Bears win, Cover +1.5 (or the -0.5), Total Under 46.
• 3 Eagles beat 6 49ers – This is the perfect matchup for PHI. The Rams would have been a problem, but SF is soft on D and struggle against good D-lines. PHI is a pretty heavy favorite -4.5, so PHI wins, SF +4.5, Total Under 44.5.
• 5 Rams beat 4 Panthers – It’s a rematch of an earlier game in CAR, but I’m happy the Panthers made the playoffs just not against the Rams. They would have had a shot against SF, but the Rams O will keep scoring. I do not like the line though however I’ll lay it, Rams win, LAR -10.5, Total Over 46.5.

Divisional Round

• 5 Rams beat 1 Seahawks – I do hope this is the NFC Title Game somehow, but in this prediction, they have to play early. The Rams should have won the last game in SEA, and I think with Davante Adams it will be easier. SEA’s D may surprise me, but Darnold struggled both times vs. the Rams D.
• 3 Eagles beat 2 Bears – Another rematch from the regular season here, but in Soldier Field. Can the Bears play another perfect game? Let’s hope so, but they will have to play another great game from jump. I’m not liking how they have started in the last few games. PHI should have some momentum, but I’ll be excited if I’m wrong.

NFC Title Game

• 5 Rams over 3 Eagles – Kinda weird I predicted the same seeds in each conference, but this time the 5 Seed will prevail. The Rams are overall a better team than PHI. Yep, in the elements, the LA O may not fly around, but PHI has not been consistent enough to me. I believe this will be the Stafford and McVay crowning moment avenging last year’s playoff loss and the earlier season loss with that crazy FG block.

Super Bowl Prediction

Rams beat the Jags – They played in JAC earlier this year, and I think the result will be the same only closer. LA won easily, 35-7, the Master, Sean McVay, schooled his pupil, Liam Coen. He will have more in his bag than Coen again, but Lawrence will play well just not good enough to win. Stafford will solidify his HOF status with his first MVP and 2nd Super Bowl win.

What can go wrong here? Probably Jags out in the Wild Card and Rams beat by the Seahawks…. I wouldn’t be surprised if it is a DEN vs. SEA rematch of Super Bowl 48 it is the cloudiest field I can remember.

Enjoy, until next week…

Wegs