NFL: Clarity in Week 17/Week 18 Final Games

The NFL typically comes down to the final week, but only a few pending issues and divisions will come through in Week 18.

Week 17 Recap

• Lions Fall – It was not a pretty holiday season for the Lions. First they lose on Thanksgiving, and this time, they go down to MIN and their 3rd string QB, 23-10. 6 TOs will do that to you. The loss eliminated the Lions from contention, meanwhile, the Vikings can actually finish higher in the standings than DET.
• Texans Keep Winning – They may have started slow, but the Texans have now won 8 straight games. This time at the Chargers, HOU held LA down and stopped them on the final drive to win, 20-16. The Texans have held 7 straight teams to 20 points or less, as well.
• Ravens Alive – BAL needed a win and a Steelers loss to have a shot. Well, even without QB Lamar Jackson, the Ravens rode RB Derrick Henry’s 216 yards rushing and 4 TDs to a resounding victory in Lambeau, 41-24. The Packers fall has been quick after nearly securing the division in CHI last week.
• Jags Keep Streaking – The Texans aren’t the only ones who keep winning. JAC trailed early at IND, but QB Trevor Lawrence and the gang were able to score 16 second half points to win, 23-17 and are one win away from the AFC South crown.
• Seahawks Fly – SEA needed to get a win to play for the 1 Seed. They were tied 3-3 at the half, but the SEA D forced 2 big early turnovers setting up TDs to control the game and eventually open up an easy win, 27-10. Meanwhile CAR missed their chance to win the NFC South, as TB lost to MIA setting up a win and in scenario in Week 18.
• Browns Squeeze PIT – The Steelers simply needed to win at CLE, but the CLE D was so good. PIT only mustered a paltry 3 of 15 on 3rd down and 0 for 3 on 4th down including the last play inside the 10. Now, PIT will need to beat BAL yet again to secure a playoff spot and the AFC North.
• SF Outguns the Bears – Quite a game on Sunday night, as the winner still had a shot at the 1 Seed. The Bears had already locked up the NFC North with the GB loss on Saturday. However, SF had been streaking, especially on O. Well, it was a laser light show, as both teams had over 400 yards of Offense. SF had 32 first downs in the game, and went 5 for 5 in the Red Zone for TDs, while the Bears stalled on 2 of 3 trips. SF won, 42-38, and now will play for the NFC West title and 1 Seed next week.

Predictions: Good week – S/U 3-1, ATS 2-2, Totals 3-1

Playoff Outlook

The field is really nearly complete this final week with 3 divisions on the line and some seeding in play.

AFC

1. Broncos 13-3 – Still hold the 1 Seed and have won the AFC West, but DEN needs to win vs. LAC to secure home field advantage and the Bye.
2. Patriots 13-3 – The Pats have won the AFC East, and they can ascend with a win over MIA at home and a DEN loss.
3. Jags 12-4 – JAC wins the AFC South with a win over TEN, and they can be the 1 Seed with a win and losses by both DEN and NE (best conference record and H2H over DEN). Not super likely, but they have a shot.
4. Steelers 9-7 – The Steelers had their chance to rest in Week 18, and now they will host BAL for the AFC North crown – winner is in, loser goes home.
5. Texans 11-5 – HOU can win the AFC South and jump to the 3 Seed with a win over IND at home and a JAC loss. Otherwise, if they do lose, then they can drop as far as the 7 Seed with wins by LAC and BUF.
6. Chargers 11-5 – Chargers do not have a ton to play for, but I’m sure they would rather play PIT/BAL than JAC or NE. So, a win at DEN would be ideal for them. Although reports show Herbert is sitting.
7. Bills 11-5 – BUF had a shot to beat PHI, but missed the 2 point conversion. So, they can’t win the AFC East, they are only playing for seeding. A win over Jets may get them up a notch or two.
8. Ravens 8-8 – It’s been a rough year for BAL, but they still have a shot to redeem it. A win at PIT gets them the AFC North and hosting someone in the Wild Card round.

NFC

1. Seahawks 13-3 – SEA just needs to win at SF to win the NFC West and the 1 Seed. Now, if they lose, then they can fall all the way to the 5 Seed. So, it is a big game for sure.
2. Bears 11-5 – The Bears have won the NFC North, but another win secures the 2 Seed and rematch against the Pack. If they do lose to DET at home on Sunday, then PHI can jump them with a win moving CHI to the 3 Seed.
3. Eagles 11-5 – PHI has won the NFC East, but may want to avoid the Rams or 49ers with a win vs. WAS and a CHI loss.
4. Panthers 8-8 – Not super simple, but 2 ways to get in – Win at TB to win the NFC South or lose and hope ATL beats NO for a 3 way tie and CAR wins the tiebreaker, now that ATL beat LA.
5. 49ers 12-4 – SF with a win vs. SEA will not only win the NFC West, but the 1 Seed. A loss will put them as the 5 Seed.
6. Rams 11-5 – LAR cannot win the NFC West anymore, and they are locked into the 6 Seed with their conference record. Will likely only play starters for a series or two.
7. Packers 9-6-1 – GB has nothing to play for in Week 18. They will travel to CHI or PHI depending on the above scenarios.
8. Bucs 7-9 – TB may not really be 8th in the NFC, but a win and ATL loss will get them the NFC South crown for yet another year. Otherwise, I think Todd Bowles is out – he may be regardless after this collapse.

Wegs Index After Week 17

The Index doesn’t really lie. The only exception may be the Lions who still stay up there without the results. After Week 18, I’ll realign the Index based on the playoff teams only which will be the basis of playoff predictions.

1. Rams 12-4 (5.83 Index) – Still the most balanced team, but wow, they are not playing very consistently. Maybe the Adams injury is really affecting the O, but the D has been lackluster 4th Q in SEA and 1st half at ATL.
2. Patriots 12-4 (5.83) – The Pats monster win got them improved metrics and even with the Rams now.
3. Seahawks 13-3 (6.83) – The ‘Hawks are a good team, but I keep stressing the TOs by Darnold which will cost them at some point.
4. Texans 11-5 (7.33) – If HOU scores over 20 points a game, then they win the title. It’s that simple.
5. Bills 11-5 (8.00) – The Bills D showed me something in the 2nd half vs. PHI, but in general, that’s the side of the ball with issues.
6. Jags 12-4 (8.33) – The Jags like the Rams are a balanced team, which makes them very dangerous.
7. Chargers 11-5 (10.17) – The Chargers O Line injuries are catching up to them, despite that good D.
8. Broncos 13-3 (10.50) – DEN is a bit fugazi, but playing at home will help them in the playoffs.

Key Matchups in Week 18

Only going to highlight the 3 games with teams fighting directly for something this week. The other relevant games have been mentioned above.

• Panthers at Bucs (-2.5, 44 Total) – Saturday, 1/3 at 3:30 PM Central on ABC/ESPN – These are probably the two worst teams to potentially qualify for the playoffs in recent memory. So, hard to pick this one. I guess I’ll pick with my heart more than the numbers. TB is better on paper and the line is about right. Still TB has lost 4 straight and 7 of 8 games. The D seems broken, but they do have all the experience in these situations. CAR is not a great road team, but I want them to make the playoffs more than TB. Hopefully, QB Bryce Young plays well. CAR wins, CAR +2.5, Total Under 44. Again, TB needs to win and have ATL lose vs. NO to win the division.
• Seahawks at 49ers (+1.5, 49.5 Total) – Saturday, 1/3 at 7 PM Central on ABC/ESPN – These teams are both worthy of the 1 Seed. SF has been streaking for weeks now with QB Brock Purdy at the helm. SEA typically is a better road team than home team. In my view, QB Sam Darnold is the key. When he plays well, they win with ease. I still don’t trust him, but the SF D is not good. They will need to outscore SEA, and the one thing I do trust is the SEA D. I think that line will control SF this time around. So, SEA wins, Covers -1.5, Total Under 49.5.
• Ravens at Steelers (+3.5, 41.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/4 at 7:20 PM Central on NBC – Two more undeserving teams can qualify in this one like the NFC South. However, PIT and BAL have enough to win a game in the playoffs. At home as a dog, HC Mike Tomlin is really good – these teams play within 3 points almost always, so the line seems high. However, without WR DK Metcalf, the PIT O looked awful at CLE. Maybe they can run against the Ravens. I think BAL will win this game. They should get behind Henry again to win it. I’m not sure if Jackson is going to play, and maybe in the short run are a better off without him given his health. I do think a loss by BAL will cost HC Jon Harbaugh his job. BAL wins, BAL +3.5 (even though I make it a PK), Total Over 41.5.

Enjoy the last week of the regular season.

Wegs