NFL: Field Has Narrowed in Week 16/NFL Week 17 Preview

After a ton of meaningful games, the number of teams that can qualify for the playoffs has reduced quickly.

Week 16 Recap

• Seahawks Epic Comeback – The Seahawks looked dead in the water into the 4th Quarter, as the Rams led 30-14 with 13:34 left in the 4th. SEA was 0-172 when down by 15+ points in the 4th Quarter. Well, despite a bad 3 quarters for Sam Darnold and the Seahawks a punt return TD, a questionable 2 point conversion call after a Darnold TD forced OT. The Rams scored first in OT and kicked the XP, but Darnold hit WR Cooper Kupp for a big gain to setup a tying TD. SEA went for 2 and converted to complete the epic comeback, 38-37, scoring 24 points in 20 points of game time to take the NFC West lead and the 1 Seed. Incredible.
• Bears Epic Comeback – Not quite as large a deficit, but even more unlikely, the Bears trailed 16-6 with 5:06 remaining in the 4th Quarter. Now, QB Jordan Love was knocked out early in this one, but Malik Willis was capable building that lead. The Bears finally mustered a drive to get a FG to make the game 16-9 with 2:04 left. Then, the Bears were able to recover an onside kick which is nearly impossible in the modern NFL. Next on 4th and 4 with 24 seconds left on the GB 6, QB Caleb Williams hit WR Jahdae Walker for a TD. CHI kicked the XP to force OT. Then, GB fumbled the ball on a 4th and 1 near midfield. Finally, Williams threw a great ball to WR DJ Moore for a 46 yard bomb while draped with coverage for the walk off win, 22-16. The Bears now are in complete control of the NFC North.
• Panthers Best the Bucs – TB jumped out early to a 10-3 lead, but these Panthers are salty. They grinded to a lead at the half, 13-10 after QB Bryce Young hit the rookie WR Tetairoa McMillan for a TD. The Bucs answered in the 3rd Quarter, but Young hit WR Ja’Tavion Sanders after escaping the Bucs’ pass rush for another TD. The Bucs tied the game, but could not stop CAR on their last possession for the go ahead FG. QB Baker Mayfield finished the game with an INT, and now the Panthers lead the NFC South with the 23-20 win.
• Jags Keep Streaking – Denver entered Sunday with an 11 game win streak, but the Jags entered with winning 6 of 7 and 5 straight. Despite the tough D and noise in DEN, QB Trevor Lawrence played great. He hit 7 receivers including the rookie WR Parker Washington who was outstanding with 6 catches, 145 yards, and a TD. After the Broncos tied the game at 17-17 on their first drive of the 2nd half, it was all Jags who outscored DEN 17-3 from that point on. The Jags have the inside track for the AFC South.
• Patriots Push Ravens to the Brink – The Ravens have disappointed all season, and Sunday was no different. QB Lamar Jackson was knocked out during the game, but backup Snoop Huntley was fine. What was not fine as the BAL D who gave up 453 yards and gave up an 11 point lead in the 4th Quarter yet again. Patriots won, 28-24, and BAL will need some help with the Steelers winning at DET.

Predictions: S/U 3-2, ATS 4-1 (although the Rams did cover final number +1.5), Totals 3-2 (just over in CAR) – Overall great week as definitely saw the games the right way.

Playoff Outlook

The field has been trimmed considerably now with a few teams on complete life support. They still need to play it out, but really the seeding is the only thing that matters in the last 2 weeks.

AFC

1. Broncos 12-3 – They own the 1 Seed by virtue of like opponents and the Patriots lost W1 vs. the Raiders. They can still lose the AFC West if the Chargers win in Week 17 and win in DEN, otherwise, Broncos are right there. KC in KC this week, then LAC at home in W18.
2. Patriots 12-3 – Definitely an easier path to the 1 Seed with a game at NE and home against the eliminated Fins. I think they will win out, so it’s all on DEN.
3. Jags 11-4 – The win at DEN gives them hope for the 1 Seed. They play at IND W17 and then TEN. Likely will win out, but unless NE stumbles, I think they will stay behind them. That win at DEN puts them a step ahead of HOU for the AFC South, so just don’t fall flat and they will win the division.
4. Steelers 9-6 – HC Mike Tomlin gets through yet another non-losing season. They are full 2 games ahead of BAL now, so with a win at CLE, they lock up the AFC North (or a BAL loss vs. GB). That blown lead vs. NE had implications.
5. Chargers 11-4 – Dominant win at DAL sets up a big game on many levels at home vs. the Texans. Winner is set up for a Week 18 potential division winner scenario, loser will still be in the playoffs, but on the road.
6. Bills 11-4 – Playing with fire in CLE, but got the win, but the health of QB Josh Allen will be critical. BUF gets PHI at home, then the Jets. PHI may have their division locked up but still can be the 1 Seed in the NFC. Tough game.
7. Texans 10-5 – Played with their food against the Raiders at home, which was not great, but their win streak continued. They have a slim chance to win the AFC South, and it starts with the game at the Chargers. If they win, they need help to win the South. If they lose, then likely will rest their starters in Week 18 vs. IND, as they cannot really improve their position.
8. Colts 8-7 – IND is on life support after the SF loss. One loss or one HOU win knocks them out. W17 at home against JAC should do it, but then again at HOU in W18. So, if the Colts can stop this 4 game skid, then they still can make it technically.
9. Ravens 7-8 – The awful 2025 campaign keeps delivering disappointments. They need the Steelers to lose in Week 17 and need to beat GB at home to have a shot at the AFC North – their only path in the playoffs.

NFC

1. Seattle 12-3 – The big win on TNF gives the Seahawks the NFC West lead and 1 Seed, but there are so many scenarios here. SEA will play at CAR W17 (which is no gimme) and at SF in W18 – could be for the division. So, no time to celebrate.
2. Bears 11-4 – Even better than my best projections in the pre-season, the Bears keep winning close ones. They are in the playoffs now, but it is all about seeding now. They will win the NFC North with a win at SF or in W18 home against DET. However, if they lose them both and GB wins, then they can still lose the division.
3. Eagles 10-5 – The Eagles have locked up the division with the DAL loss in W16. So, they are only playing for seeding. I think they will play hard, but not crazy at BUF, then they finish at WAS.
4. Panthers 8-7 – The surprise entrant has not locked up the division yet. Even if they win in W17 vs. SEA, they will need to beat TB, if TB wins in W17.
5. Rams 11-4 – The loss at SEA costs them for now. SF jumped them in the seeding based on their division record. So, LA needs to take care of business at ATL and vs. AZ in W18 to have another crack at the NFC West.
6. 49ers 10-4 – SF can play the spoiler in this whole thing. W17 they host the Bears to give GB a chance at the North and in W18 if they beat SEA, then they would win the NFC West.
7. Packers 9-5-1 – That miraculous loss would have sown up the North, but now, they need help. They are all but in the playoffs now with the Lions loss. One win, and they are in, but they play BAL (at home) and then at MIN. Not a gimme. If DET loses one more, then they are in. Still GB looks like they will be on the road this playoffs.
8. Lions 8-7 – Rough final second call, that took a TD off the board, but they played poorly all game long. Now, they need to win out and have GB lose out to make it. Not really likely with games at MIN (who is finishing strong) and at CHI. I think they can lose this week and end their pain.
9. Bucs 7-8 – Only path in is to win out. It starts this week at MIA in W17, then hosting CAR in W18. The Bucs D has been awful, and MIA is not playing an NFL guy at QB but their running game can make things sticky. It is going to be a fun finish for TB.

Wegs Index After Week 16

1. Rams 11-4 (4.83 Index) – Blowing a 16 point lead (2nd time this year blowing a double digit lead) is not a good look.
2. Seahawks 12-3 (6.83) – The miracle may get them the division, but TO Margin of -4 will haunt them at some point.
3. Patriots 12-3 (7.33) – Pats got a great win on SNF, which nearly secures them the division.
4. Texans 10-5 (7.50) – Still the Top D in both metrics.
5. Bills 11-4 (8.33) – BUF O can only carry them so far.
6. Jags 11-4 (8.67) – The Jags are the hottest of the hot teams right now.
7. Packers 9-5-1 (9.83) – The Pack need a bounce back vs. BAL.
8. Chargers 11-4 (10.00) – LAC is turning it on at the right time.

Key Matchups in Week 17

• Texans at Chargers (-2.5, 39.5 Total) – Saturday, 12/27 at 3:30 PM Central on NFL Network – HOU needs the game more than LA, but the Chargers can still win the AFC West. The D’s should shine here, and both O-Lines are pretty suspect. So, it probably comes down to QB play. It is hard to argue how well Herbert is playing for the Chargers, but I do think HOU has that other level D. I think they bounce back and sack Herbert 7 times for a tight win in this one. HOU wins, Covers +2.5, Total Under 39.5.
• Ravens at Packers (-2.5, 40.5 Total) – Saturday, 12/27 at 7 PM Central on Peacock – Both teams need this game. Ravens are on the brink of elimination after playing poorly again. The Pack blew a real shot at the division, and who is going to be healthy enough at QB. Look, if Love or Willis plays, I think the Pack find a way to win this game. The Ravens’ D has been terrible, and we are not even sure Lamar Jackson will play for BAL. It will not be the highlight game everyone was looking for, but pound for pound GB is a better team than BAL. GB wins, Covers -2.5, Total Over 40.5.
• Seahawks at Panthers (+7.5, 42.5 Total) – Sunday, 12/28 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – Seattle does not have time to rest, as they travel to the NFC South leading Panthers. The Panthers were able to come back vs. TB. Not sure they can fall behind with that SEA D. However, I think CAR can keep it close enough. SEA wins, CAR Covers +7.5, Total Over 42.5.
• Bears at 49ers (-3, 51.5 Total) – Sunday,12/28 at 7:20 PM Central on NBC – A really big game to determine the NFC seedings and divisions. The Bears are a step ahead of GB for the division, but can still not win it with 2 losses. SF can win the West and even take the 1 Seed, plus they haven’t punted since Week 14. The Offense is humming with Purdy back in the fold. The Bears will score (like IND did), but I do not think they can keep up with SF right now. SF wins, Covers -3, Total Over 51.5.

Two weeks to go. Merry Christmas!

Wegs