NFL: Injury Clouded Results in Week 15/Week 16 Preview

2025 has been a bit of a changing of the guard in the NFL or at least at the top. Unfortunately, some injuries cloud some of the results, but either way, the game continues.

Week 15 Recap

• Chiefs Are Eliminated – It has been 8 seasons since QB Patrick Mahomes stepped into the NFL. In those 8 seasons – 7 of which as a starter, the Chiefs have played in the AFC Title game all 7 times – 6 of which at home. They lost only twice to the Patriots (Brady led) and Bengals (Burrow led). Even before Mahomes, KC has won the AFC West 9 straight times. So, on Sunday, when the Chargers came in and not only won the game, 16-13, but Mahomes left with a torn ACL, it feels like the end of an era. Yes, Mahomes will be back, maybe even to start 2026, but Kelce will be gone and perhaps other core pieces. Nothing lasts forever.
• Ravens Bounce Back – The Bengals got QB Joe Burrow back for Thanksgiving, but after a strange press conference about not having a love for the game a couple days before this game, maybe that enthusiasm waned. The Ravens took advantage of it, and they drubbed CIN, 24-0 eliminating the Bengals from the playoffs and getting themselves back on track in the AFC North.
• Bills Stave Off Defeat – It looked like a new day in NE as the Patriots had a chance to win the AFC East on Sunday. In fact, NE roared out to a 21-0 lead to start the 2nd Quarter. It certainly looked like a new sheriff in town. Yet, the reigning MVP, Josh Allen (3 TDs passed) did it again getting his team on his back and with help from RB James Cook (107 yards rushing and 3 total TDs) they were able to outscore NE 28-7 in the 2nd half and win 35-31.
• Broncos Outscore GB – That potential Super Bowl looked all that on Sunday, as the Packers came in and led the Broncos, 23-14 into the 4rd Quarter. However, 2 things happened – 1) WR Christian Watson, the GB deep threat left the game with a shoulder injury – GB only mustered 1 FG after that and 2) DE Micah Parsons, the big free agent acquisition, torn his ACL on a non-contact play – Denver scored 14 points after that to win the game, 34-26. GB may still be competitive, but their Super Bowl hopes may have dimmed, meanwhile the Broncos are the 1 Seed now.
• Rams Ran Past DET – The Lions reverted to their old game plan of outscoring their opponents since the demise of the D. They tried to do that in LA and even led by 10 in the 2nd Quarter. However, their D could not get enough stops, as the Rams despite the WR Davante Adams hamstring injury put up 519 total yards including 3 rushing TDs for the 41-34 win. The Rams stay in the 1 Seed and put the Lions on the brink of elimination.

Predictions: S/U 1-3, ATS 0-4, Totals 2-2 – terrible week after being pretty solid lately. Bengals, Packers and Patriots did not get there, and Lions fell off for the non-cover.

Playoff Outlook

The field has trimmed quite a bit since last week. The storylines have mostly worked out.

KC – out; IND – on the ropes; HOU – still dangerous; DET – one loss away from oblivion; NFC West – 3 teams for sure; Panthers – blew it at NO, but still in the mix; CIN – seems to have quit; BAL – wrong here, as they can win the AFC North but trail PIT; PHI – with win and DAL loss are back in command of the NFC East.

Playoff Scenarios

AFC

1 Seed – Broncos 12-2 – Up for grabs – Big game in DEN vs. JAC – Jags still have a shot at the 1 Seed with a win, but DEN can really solidify their position, but still have to play LAC in the finale (KC in Week 17 seems beatable now). NE still has a shot (see below), too, but big game at BAL – should be one of these 3 teams though.

2 Seed – Patriots 11-3 – Really, it will come down to the winner of JAC/DEN at the start and if win at BAL for the 1 Seed. NE finishes at BAL, at NYJ (who looked cooked) and MIA (who is nearly eliminated)

3 Seed – Jags 10-4 – No one is hotter than the Jags, but they can literally be any of the seeds from 1-3, 5-7. The game at DEN is a huge determinant. With a loss, then they will be in a dogfight with HOU for the AFC South and this slot. Jags finish with IND (home) and TEN (home).

4 Seed – Steelers 8-6 – This slot will go to the AFC North winner – other team will miss the playoffs. PIT finishes with at DET, at CLE and BAL (at home). Seems like this is going to come down to Week 18, but the Steelers control their own destiny.

5 Seed – Chargers 10-4 – The win at KC opens up the AFC for everyone. LAC does finish with a tough schedule, however at DAL (last shot for the Cowboys); HOU and at DEN. I think they drop up to 2 games here. They will make the playoffs, but likely the 7 Seed.

6 Seed – Bills 10-4 – The win at NE was a big one, and they still are not out of the running for the AFC East crown. Remaining games: at CLE, PHI and NYJ – the Eagles games is the main concern, but again, they will be at home. However, NE holds the tiebreaker – better division record. So, I think BUF barring a meltdown for NE will end up as the 5 Seed or even 6 Seed depending on how the Jags/HOU division works out.

7 Seed – Texans 9-5 – The team no one wants to play. HOU can get to the 3 Seed if they win out. Even if they don’t, if the Jags drop 2 games, then HOU still has a shot at the division as the Texans have just one loss in the AFC South. One tough game left: LVR (home), then at LAC with the Colts as the finale. They should beat the Raiders setting up a huge game at the Chargers. If the Texans beat the Chargers, then the game versus the Colts would give HOU the division based on better AFC Record – HOU is currently 7-2 (so they would be 10-2).

Others

Colts – 8-6 – Technically still in the race. QB Philip Rivers was decent in his return, but the Colts finish with 3 playoff teams – SF, JAC (at home) and at HOU – One more loss really will knock them out barring some mistakes by HOU. Colts will have to win out essentially.

Ravens 7-7 – Need to win the AFC North, as they are out with another win by HOU for the Wild Card

Dolphins 6-8 – Effectively out with the loss at PIT – 3-7 in the AFC is a killer even if they close strong – same with the Chiefs

NFC

1 Seed – Rams 11-3 – The Rams control their own destiny. A win at SEA will all but seal the 1 Seed, but they still have games at ATL and home vs. AZ. If they win on Thursday, then I think it is a wrap.

2 Seed – Bears 10-4 – The Bears were able to take are of business, and now they can lock up the NFC North with a game at home on Saturday vs. GB. If they win, then they should be the division champs. If not, then it will take wins at SF and home vs. DET to get there. It certainly is setting up for them nicely, but they still need to go full throttle as a loss on Saturday and at SF could be a play in game in Week 18..

3 Seed – Eagles 9-5 – PHI finally didn’t play with their food for once vs. the Raiders, and they are one win away from locking up the 3 Seed at worst. They can still ascend to 2 if the Bears falter – they own the tiebreaker over GB. This week at WAS, then at BUF, finally home vs. WAS. One win gets them the NFC East. That seems likely, but WAS has been known to steal one game from them. BUF needs the win as much as they do in Week 17.

4 Seed – Bucs 7-7 – Does anyone want to win the NFC South? Like the AFC North, this is a one team division with 2 games vs. CAR in the last 3. This week a CAR, then at MIA finally at home vs. CAR. 2 wins gets TB another crown, but likely early exit.

5 Seed – Seahawks 11-3 – Why does this feel like 2024 in the NFC North? Winner of TNF in SEA is essentially the 1 Seed, loser should be the 5 Seed. SEA does have to play at CAR and at SF, so those are 2 potential losses and harder games than the Rams. So, my money is still on the Rams for the 1 Seed and NFC West title.

6 Seed – 49ers 10-4 – Don’t sleep on SF. They are essentially in the playoffs at this point, unless they lose out. SF has at IND, hosts CHI and SEA. Tough games, but without Jones in IND. I can see them winning all these games, but still not winning the division. So, likely a 5 Seed battle in Week 18.

7 Seed – Packers 9-4-1 – Wow does that tie matter now. The Pack losing Parsons really hurts this team. Yeah, if Watson comes back, the O can win them a lot of games, but the inability to close out teams like DEN will cost them in the playoffs. Games – at CHI on Saturday night, BAL at Lambeau and at MIN seems like 2 wins, but if the Bears take them on Saturday, they can still win the division. GB is 4-0 in the division and win at MIN would make them 5-1 even with a loss. Bears can at best be 3-3 (currently 1-3). So, still lots of football to go to determine the NFC North.

Other Teams

Lions 8-6 – The Lions are 1 game away from oblivion which factors into Week 18 at CHI whether they will play all out. Games – PIT (at home) and road games at MIN and CHI. It is possible, but MIN has played better recently. They really need to run the table to get in.

Panthers 7-7 – That loss at NO is going to sting. A win and they could have tolerated a loss vs. TB. Now, they have to play TB (at home) then host SEA and at TB. They absolutely have to win this week at home or I think they miss the playoffs.

Cowboys 6-7-1 – The last 2 games have been terrible for them. 2 NFC losses eliminate them from the Wild Card. If they win out and PHI losses out, sure they are in, but that will not happen.

NFL Index After Week 15

1. Rams 11-3 (4.33 Index) – Most balanced team
2. Seahawks 11-3 (6.00) – O is not great now
3. Patriots 11-3 (7.17) – Interesting despite the loss
4. Texans 9-5 (7.33) – Numbers don’t lie
5. Bills 10-4 (8.83) – Offense or bust
6. Jags 10-4 (9.00) – D is quietly playing really well
7. Packers 9-4-1 (9.33) – How badly will the D suffer without Parsons?
8. Broncos 12-2 (9.83) – Bo Nix is the key to this team, as D is consistent.

Key Matchups in Week 16

I went with 5 games this week with all the playoff implications.

• Rams at Seahawks (PK, 44.5 Total) – Thursday, 12/18 at 7:15 PM Central on Amazon – Here we go, NFC Division Battle 1. Big NFC West showdown. Now, SF still has a chance to sneak in for the division, but for now, this game winner has the edge for the division and 1 Seed in the NFC. The Rams are the better team. Not just in the Index, but they are more balanced. SEA’s O has declined for weeks, as QB Sam Darnold has struggled, and especially in the 1st half. SEA got lucky at home versus IND. The SEA D will need to win this game, otherwise, I like LAR to win, Cover PK, Total Over 44.5.
• Packers at Bears (+1.5, 46.5 Total) – Saturday, 12/20 at 7:20 PM Central on FOX – NFC Division Battle 2. A rematch in the NFC North after just 2 weeks, but a lot of changes from that time. No Micah Parsons will hurt GB long term, maybe not this week, but it really hurts their overall chances. Still, the straw that stirs the drink on O is WR Christian Watson (Questionable with a chest injury). You can see it once he is out, their offense compresses. That deep threat just stretches every D, including DEN’s. In Game 1, Watson went off – 4 catches, 89 yards and 2 TDs. So, the rookie Matthew Golden needs to step up or the run game needs to control the Bears line. I think CHI wins, Covers +1.5, and Over 46.5. Not just a homer pick, I make the line with Parsons and Watson (he still may play) GB -1, so -1.5 is too many. Bears probably should be favored or a PK.
• Bucs at Panthers (+3, 45.5 Total) – Sunday, 12/21 at 12 Noon Central on FOX – NFC Division Battle 3. The Bucs and Panthers both come in after losses in the NFC South. The fact that TB is favored by a FG on the road is a little strange. Yes, the O is healthy, and WR Mike Evans looked good in his return. However, that D is not what it has been in past years. CAR can score and more importantly run the ball. I like CAR to win this game outright, CAR +3, Total Under 45.5. Tampa may get them in TB to win this division in Week 18, though.
• Jags at Broncos (-3, 45.5 Total) – Sunday, 12/21 at 3:05 PM Central on FOX – A sneaky 1 Seed battle here. The Broncos have won 11 straight games, while the Jags have won 6 of 7 and that O is humming. I understand the Broncos love, but the line is too high, the JAC D is underrated. Before the Mile High altitude and Parsons injury, the Broncos O wasn’t moving great. I make this game DEN -1.5, so there is value on the Jags. I think DEN wins, but JAC +3, Total Over 45.5.
• Patriots at Ravens (-3, 48 Total) – Sunday, 12/21 at 7:20 PM Central on NBC – A huge game for the Ravens, as they are now a step back from PIT in the AFC North, and NE still can grab that 1 Seed. BAL finally played pretty well at CIN, but the NE D is not swiss cheese like the Bengals. Unless BAL has completely righted the ship, NE should win this game regardless of motivation. I like NE to win, NE +3, Total Over 48.

We are really in it now.

Wegs