NFL: Division Battles in Week 14/Week 15 Preview

The NFL does have it down pat in a sense. The late season matchups in the division really set up some huge games that matter.

NFL Week 14 Recap

• Lions Still Alive – It was a must win after the late slide by DET, and with WR Amon-Ra St. Brown back, the O cooked with 408 yards and 44 points in their 44-30 win over DAL.
• Jags In Control of Division – The Jags have not been my favorite team this year, but 4 straight wins and with the Colts’ QB Daniel Jones Achilles injury puts JAC in the driver’s seat for the AFC South. The 36-19 win over IND plus another matchup in Week 16 will seal the deal, most likely.
• Steelers Responded – It was a tough loss versus the Bills, but QB Aaron Rodgers bounced back with 284 yards passing, 1 TD passing and 1 Rushing TD for the 27-22 win at BAL. Yes, I think the pass to BAL’s TE Isaiah Likely was a TD, but it was reversed and continued the disappointing Ravens’ season. Now, BAL is 6-7, trailing PIT with one more matchup in Week 18.
• The Pack is Back – Make no mistake about it, in order to win the SB, it helps to win your division. Well, GB is now 4-0 in the NFC North, and it took a late stop as the Bears were in the Red Zone to tie the game to no avail in the 28-21 win. HC Matt Lefleur is now 12-1 against CHI.
• Texans Win With D – The end of the Chiefs’ Era may have begun. HOU went into Arrowhead and took an early lead only to be answered in the 3rd Quarter by KC, 10-10. However, no one has been better on D than HOU in the 4th Quarter. In this one, KC’s drive chart went 4 plays 9 yards – Downs; 4 plays 6 yards – Downs; 2 plays 0 yards – INT; 3 plays 24 yards – End of Game. HC Andy Reid did make a blunder at the start of the 4th when the game was tied to go for it on their own 31 yard line, which failed and led to a HOU TD after the 3rd Quarter HOU had no Offense. Texans won, 20-10 and are now on the right side of the playoff bubble.
• Chargers Get The Win – It was not a pretty MNF game, as both teams turned the ball over time and time again. However, in a near must win situation for the Chargers, they were able to force OT late and then win with a FG and another Jalen Hurts INT to seal the OT win, 22-19.

Predictions: S/U 2-2; ATS 2-2; Totals 2-2 – Meh, Bears probably should have covered, but PIT and HOU outright wins were surprising.

Playoff Outlook

Let’s check in on our storylines from last week and 2 new ones:

1. Colts May Miss the Playoffs – It looks like they will miss with the 1-4 stretch and now the injury to QB Daniel Jones. Now, IND signed Philip Rivers? He hasn’t played in 5 years, and at 44 will be rough to step in.
2. Texans Are Dangerous – Yep, 6 straight wins and the near elimination of KC puts them just a heartbeat away from the AFC South title, but more importantly, this team can win anywhere with that D.
3. Chiefs Are In Trouble – Yep, they are now 6-7 and need to win out and get help. That 4th Down decision may haunt KC until 2026. The Chargers’ win on MNF gives KC a zero margin for error.
4. Lions Are In Trouble – They got back in the mix with the win over DAL. They still need to score another big win, either this week or at CHI.
5. NFC West Will Have 3 Teams – That seems solid now – 2 best teams in football – Rams and Seahawks are battling for the division and let’s see if SF can jump them.
6. Panthers and Bengals Can Play Spoiler – CAR is now tied for the NFC South lead with 2 games versus TB remaining. CIN couldn’t top the Bills, but have a big game versus BAL this week.
7. Ravens Will Miss Playoffs (New Storyline) – Well, they have now lost back to back home division games, so they are trailing the Steelers and need to win at CIN or it’s all but over.
8. Eagles Imploding (New Storyline) – With 3 straight losses, the Eagles are now in jeopardy of missing the playoffs. I never thought it would happen, but not unlike 2023’s season, the fall from the top can be quick. They will need to get things right, as now DAL still has a shot at the NFC East.

Wegs Index After Week 14

1. Rams 10-3 (4.83 Index) – The Rams bounced back after the loss at CAR by just throttling AZ – they are the clear best team right now in the Index.
2. Seahawks 10-3 (6.67) – SEA is next, and that D is what runs this team. Darnold bounced back after a horrible 1st half.
3. Patriots 11-2 (7.00) – Sitting idle this week may have been the best thing for the Pats.
4. Lions 8-5 (8.00) – Surprisingly ahead of the Pack, but the O crushed vs. DAL.
5. Packers 9-3-1 (8.17) – The Pack’s O is the reason they have risen in recent weeks, as the D has been mostly consistent.
6. Texans 8-5 (8.50) – This team is really good, but make no mistake about it – the D runs this team and they have a tough remaining schedule.
7. Bills 9-4 (8.83) – The Bills woke up vs. CIN, and they needed to or they would have been on the outside looking in.
8. Chiefs 6-7 (10.00) – It appears the run is over with this current team. The O in critical plays has not delivered.
9. Colts 8-5 (10.00) – Maybe Rivers will be decent, but their schedule is very tough for the old vet.

Key Matchups in Week 15

• Ravens at Bengals (+2.5, 51.5 Total) – Sunday, 12/14 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – Believe it or not, the Bengals still could win this division. So, QB Joe Burrow should play in this game again. The Ravens have revenge on their mind after the Thanksgiving loss. Still, CIN has a chance to mortally wound the Ravens, and there is just something wrong in BAL. From pre-season SB Favorites to potentially losing their division and missing the playoffs, HC Jon Harbaugh could get fired at the end of the season. To me, CIN wins, Covers +2.5, Over 51.5.
• Bills at Patriots (+1.5, 49.5 Total) – Sunday, 12/14 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – Since TB12 left NE, the AFC East has been the Bills to lose. The Pats are in control of the division right now, so this is the Bills’ last stand. I do not have the Bills favored on my numbers, so value is on NE (even though their Strength of Schedule is in question). Still, QB Josh Allen has a chance to swipe another MVP if he goes off yet again. Fun game for sure, but I’m going to stick to the numbers in this one. The Bills D is still suspect to me, and NE coming off the Bye should help them be ready for this one. NE wins, Covers +1.5, Over 49.5 Total.
• Packers at Broncos (+2.5, 43 Total) – Sunday, 12/14 at 3:25 PM Central on CBS – A potential SB matchup here in DEN. Both Ds are playing at an elite level, but only one O is playing at a SB level – that is GB. With WRs Watson, Reed and Doubs, plus RB Josh Jacobs, this O can keep the DEN pass rush guessing. Plus, I do not believe in QB Bo Nix for DEN against a legit pass rush. So, GB wins, Covers -2.5, Total is about right, but Under 43.
• Lions at Rams (-5.5, 55.5 Total) – Sunday, 12/14 at 3:25 PM Central on FOX – The Lions need to keep winning, but they play the best team on paper in the NFL. Can DET find a way to cover the WRs of LA? Not sure. They can certainly try to win in a shootout, but I’m not sure DET can run wild on the Rams. So, I will say Rams win, DET covers +5.5, Total Over 55.5.

We are in the home stretch.

Wegs