NFL: New Top Dog in Week 13/Week 14 Preview

The NFL never disappoints and this week was just incredible.

Week 13 Recap

• Packers Assert Dominance – The first game of the year, the Pack made a statement controlling both lines of scrimmage for the win over DET. On Thanksgiving, after WR Amon-Ra St. Brown was knocked out of the game, GB was able to outscore the Lions for the 31-24 win moving GB to 3-0 in the NFC North.
• Cowboys Best Chiefs – QB Dak Prescott outduel Patrick Mahomes in the afternoon game on Thanksgiving. Prescott’s 320 yards passing, 2 TDs and 1 INT plus 6 of 16 3rd down conversions were the difference in the 31-28 win – keeping their playoff hopes alive. Another big game versus DET on TNF.
• Burrow’s Bengals Beat BAL – In the first half, the Ravens had 2 TDs taken off the board (fumble-touchback and OPI), but in the 2nd half, QB Joe Burrow put on a clinic converting 3rd down after 3rd down to stomp BAL, 32-14.
• Bears Grab the 1 Seed – I believed the Bears would make the playoffs. After the Parsons trade, I didn’t think they could win the NFC North (and they still may not), but this CHI team went into PHI and dominated the Champs rushing for 281 yards and even forcing a fumble on the Tush Push at a critical juncture in the 3rd Quarter. Bears won, 24-15, which vaulted them to the 1 Seed in the NFC.
• Panthers Upset Rams – You have to play the game, as the -10 favorite Rams went to CAR which is a strength for the Panthers – ATL 30-0, MIA 27-24, DAL 30-27 and now Rams 31-28 – all larger dogs at home with outright wins. The Panthers may not make the playoffs, but they have hurt a lot of teams this year.
• Texans Outmuscle Colts – The number of teams that start 0-3 that have made the playoffs in the NFL – 6 – the last team was HOU in 2018. Going into IND, the Texans had won 6 of 8. The Colts were the #1 Offense, but the #1 D mostly handled them. Despite some big plays by RB Jonathan Taylor and WR Josh Downs, 281 total yards was not enough to get the win, 20-16. HOU now 7 of 9 wins.
• Bills KO Steelers – QB Aaron Rodgers returned to the lineup for PIT led at the half, 7-3, but early in the 2nd half, a DE Joey Bosa sack, strip and then TD knocked Rodgers out again. The Bills throttled the Steelers, 26-7.

Predictions: S/U 2-2; ATS 2-2; Totals 0-4 – Not good on totals this week, but the general outlook was right. If you think the Dog can cover, then lock it in for the win – of the 9 games covered by Underdogs – 7 of 9 won outright.

Playoffs Outlook

With 5 weeks left, there are basically 10 teams in each league vying for the 7 playoff slots. It is a little early to do a full playoff scenario breakdown, but here are some storylines to follow:

1. Colts May Miss the Playoffs – The loss to HOU puts IND in a bad spot. The Jags actually lead the AFC South now, plus their schedule doesn’t let up. They play the Jags twice, at SEA, SF and at HOU in the finale. I think they miss the playoffs, but if they can beat the Jags twice, then they can still qualify.
2. Texans Are Dangerous – HOU is still not in the Top 7, but they are 4-1 in the AFC South with the finale at home versus IND. The Jags have a pretty easy path to the division, but the Texans can beat anyone with that D on the road.
3. Chiefs Are In Trouble – The loss to DAL really hurt them. KC still has HOU, LAC and DEN on the schedule. They need to beat the Texans and Chargers over the next 2 weeks or they will miss the playoffs. From what I can see, you will need 10 wins to qualify, and that is 4 of 5 games remaining.
4. Lions Are In Trouble – It is going to take 12 wins to make the playoffs in the NFC this year. That loss to GB hurt, but moreso, that DET is 1-3 in the NFC North. They still play the Bears and Vikings again, but they still play the Cowboys and Rams, too. They need to win 4 more to have shot (11 wins) and all 5 to guarantee a spot.
5. NFC West Will Have 3 Teams – The Rams fell, but they still should win 12 games, as will SEA. SF plays 4 more and if they go 3 of 4 will get in.
6. Panthers and Bengals Can Play Spoiler – I can’t see a way that CIN makes the playoffs, but they will play the Bills and Ravens who need to bank wins. The Panthers continue to tip the apple cart, and still can derail TB for the NFC South.

Wegs Index Through Week 13

The Index uses season long numbers, so it does not show a 4 week look. What you can see is teams are leveling or rising depending on their performance. With so many teams from 7-10 in the Index, it just tells you how important injuries and current trends are to predict outcomes.

1. Rams 9-3 (5.50 Index) – Stafford finally turned the ball over – 3 times – which allowed the Panthers to take them out.
2. Patriots 11-2 (7.33) – Strength of Schedule weighs heavy on their performance, but they are playing unified ball.
3. Seahawks 9-3 (7.33) – The Seahawks dominated on Sunday, but Darnold’s performance will prevent them from their ceiling (-4 TO Margin).
4. Colts 8-4 (7.50) – The Colts have been dropping over the past 4 weeks.
5. Lions 7-5 (8.00) – Once on top, the Lions injuries are hurting their performance especially on D – now middling.
6. Chiefs 6-6 (8.17) – The Chiefs were right at the top for a while, but the Red Zone performance has cost them wins and points per game.
7. Bills 8-4 (8.50) – The Steelers win gets them back on track for now.
8. Packers 8-3-1 (8.50) – The Worst Yards Per Game of the Top 8 in the Index weighs them down.
9. Texans 7-5 (8.83) – Same with HOU, the best D, but the worst on Offense in the Top 10 leaves them vulnerable every single game.
10. Broncos 10-2 (10.33) – This Broncos team is really is only about the D, and when they give up plays like on SNF, they can be beat.

Week 14 Key Matchups Preview

Bye: 49ers, Giants, Panthers, Patriots

It was hard to narrow down to just 4 games, but these are the most relevant ones.

• Steelers at Ravens (-6, 43 Total) – Sunday, 12/7 at Noon Central on CBS – This is the Steelers last stand. Yes, the Bengals can even the Ravens’ record again next week, but head to head is the most important tiebreaker. Not sure if Rodgers can play or should, but the Ravens are not firing on all cylinders, either. So, both teams are flawed, and someone has to win. I’ll bank on the Ravens at home to win, Cover -6, Total Under 43 (down from 45.5 from open).
• Colts at Jags (+1.5, 47.5 Total) – Sunday, 12/7 at Noon Central on CBS – The Colts path continues to get bumpy in Jacksonville. It is a must win for them, but the Jags see the AFC South crown in site. They play again in a couple weeks, and it comes down to can the JAC D stop RB Jonathan Taylor? I think the Colts are a better team, but the Jags are playing hungry. JAC wins, JAC +1.5, Total Over 47.5.
• Bears at Packers (-6.5, 44.5 Total) – Sunday, 12/7 at 3:25 PM Central on FOX – As a Bears’ fan, I could not be more excited about this matchup. The Bears did win in Lambeau last year, but that had no ramifications. This one is for control of the NFC North. Yes, they will play again in CHI in 2 weeks, but a win by the Bears really gives them the edge. HC Ben Johnson should have a scheme for the GB D, but it seems hard to see them winning outright. So, GB wins, CHI Covers +6.5, Total Under 44.5.
• Texans at Chiefs (-3.5, 41.5 Total) – Sunday, 12/7 at 7:20 PM on NBC – Another huge game for the AFC Playoff picture. Can the Chiefs get a critical win? Can the Texans continue to beat the odds? Look, I’m a known Texans backer this year, so I definitely see them covering +4.5, but can I see them winning? The KC D is not great, but enough to slow the Texans average O. However, the Texans want revenge for that playoff loss in January. So, it is going to be tightly contested. The Chiefs finally will win a big game here, so KC wins, HOU +3.5 (moved down from open +4.5), Total Under 41.5 (moved from 42.5 on open).

Happy viewing.

Wegs