NFL: Big Comebacks in Week 12/Week 13 Preview

The parity in the NFL was never more apparent this week.

Week 12 Recap

• Texans Flex on Bills – It seems like weeks ago, but on Thursday, the Texans D dismantled the Bills O-line over and over again to the tone of 8 sacks of reigning MVP, Josh Allen. Sure, the HOU O was not great to put the Bills away, but luckily, the D held yet again to secure a huge win, 23-19 and move to 6-5 on the season.
• Lions Survived Jameis – One of the best shows in the League is QB Jameis Winston. He is funny, committed and makes plays. Interim HC Mike Kafka pulled out all the stops against the Lions with a reverse/lateral pass and a pass back to Winston for another TD – where he trucked a safety. Winston threw for 366 yards, 2 TDs and that 33 yard TD catch. However, the Giants’ D could not stop RB Jamyhr Gibbs who had 264 total yards and 3 TDs including a 69 yard scamper in OT to win the game, 34-27.
• Bears Keep Winning – It is incredible. Every week, this team defies the odds and gives its fans (like me) with Pepto moments, as this team can’t crush anyone with their D. Despite a terrible sack, fumble TD in the end zone, the Bears were able to hold off the Rodgers-less Steelers to win their 8th game, 31-28.
• Chiefs Tempted Fate – It was not pretty, as they trailed by 11 going into the 4th Quarter to the Colts. Still, QB Patrick Mahomes led 2 drives in the 4th including a game tying FG at the end of regulation to for OT. In OT, the Chiefs got a stop of the Colts and drove to win the game on K Harrison Butker’s 5th FG of the game to win, 23-20 and save KC’s season.
• Cowboys Flipped Script – It looked like a romp in Jerry’s World, as the Eagles ran out to a 21-0 lead early in the 2nd Quarter. Still, QB Dak Prescott (and likely Comeback Player of the Year) lit up that Eagles’ D with 354 yards, 2 TDs passing and 1 rushing to tie the game, then K Brandon Aubrey nailed a kick as time expired for the win, 24-21 – keeping DAL alive in the playoff hunt.
• Rams League Best – The crown for the NFL’s best has been passed around a lot this season, but at this point, the Rams seem to be the top dog. QB Matthew Stafford (MVP favorite) was great yet again with 3 first half TD passes in a rout of the Bucs, 34-7 – note TB’s Baker Mayfield hurt his non-throwing shoulder.

Predictions: S/U 3-1, ATS 4-0, Totals 3-1 – Finally a really solid week here.

Season Predictions Review After 12 Weeks

We are 66% of the way through the year, but now is a good a time as any to review the preseason predictions. Overall, I’m having a good prediction year – game by game – 62.15% (110-67). On pace to beat last year.

So, far 6 teams right on their record – Raiders, Saints, Steelers, Broncos, 49ers and Chargers.

5 Over-Performing Teams (more than 2 wins better): Colts (8-3 vs. 4-7); Patriots (10-2 vs. 7-5); Panthers (6-6 vs. 3-9); Seahawks (8-3 vs. 2-9 – my worst prediction); and Rams (9-2 vs. 6-5)

7 Under-Performing Teams (more than 2 wins worse): Bengals (3-8 vs. 7-4); Cardinals (3-8 vs. 6-3); Commanders (3-8 vs. 6-5); Titans (1-10 vs. 4-7); Texans (6-5 vs. 9-2); Ravens (6-5 vs. 9-2); and Bills (7-4 vs. 10-1)

6 Weeks to go.

Wegs Index Through Week 12

• Rams 9-2 (4.67 Index) – The Rams are the clearly best team per the Index by more than 2, which is significant. They are now the SB Favorite +425 (next closest is PHI +600). Barring an injury to Stafford, this team is the best.
• Lions 7-4 (7.00) – A little surprised the Lions are hanging on. Their D is not right, and until they get healthy, they are vulnerable to even make the playoffs.
• Chiefs 6-5 (7.17) – Avoided disaster
• Colts 8-3 (7.50) – Huge game versus HOU this week.
• Patriots 10-2 (8.00) – The NFL’s best record with an easy schedule helps.
• Packers 7-3-1 (8.83) – Looked dominant again, but need to surpass the Bears.
• Texans 6-5 (9.00) – If this team scores 20 or more in every game, then they will win the rest of their games with this D.
• Seahawks 8-3 (9.00) – Played with their food on Sunday at TEN, but still can take the NFC West.

Week 13 Key Matchups Previews

Byes: None

• Packers at Lions (-2.5, 49 Total) – Thursday, 11/27 at 12 Noon Central on FOX – Really good football game here. The Lions were almost caught looking ahead to this game on Sunday. The Lions need this game more than the Packers, but their D was terrible against the Giants. I think the Lions will find a way to win, even though I favor the Packers on paper. GB’s O has been not great since the Kraft injury, but if they can continue to run the ball, they can win this one. I’m excited to watch it, and I’ll be flipping back and forth until game time. For now, DET wins, Covers -2.5, Total Under 49.
• Bears at Eagles (-7, 44.5 Total) – Friday, 11/28 at 2 PM Central on Amazon – The Bears continue to defy the odds. The Eagles are banged up in the secondary. So, the Bears should be able to score. I think the Bears make this a game, but I think the Bears finally hit the wall here. PHI wins, but I’ll say CHI Covers +7, Total Over 44.5, as the Bears D is not great.
• Texans at Colts (-4.5, 44.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/30 at Noon Central on CBS – If HOU has any shot to win this division, then they have to win this game. They can survive a loss for the playoffs, but every game matters at this point. The Colts lost a heartbreaker in OT at KC, so perhaps a letdown. HOU should have Stroud returning (even though Mills has been 3-0 as a starter). I like HOU to keep rolling – slowing down Taylor and getting after Jones on that turf in Indy. HOU wins, Covers +4.5, Under 44.5. Another great game.
• Bills at Steelers (+3.5, 47.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/30 at 3:25 PM Central on CBS – I chose this game because in some ways this is an early elimination game. The Bills cannot lose this game or they will be on the outside looking in for the playoffs. I hate their D right now. It is too soft, and they can’t seem to get an identity on O besides Allen making plays. The Steelers D is bad against the run, so RB James Cook should excel. Assuming Rodgers is playing this week, I think the Steelers play tough in this one. I still think BUF wins, but Steelers Cover +3.5, Total Over 47.5.

Happy Thanksgiving and enjoy the games!

Wegs