NFL: Entering The Stretch in Week 11/Week 12 Preview

Recap of Week 11

Bills Back on Track – After that face plant in MIA, the reigning MVP, Josh Allen accounted for 6 TDs – 3 Passing and 3 Rushing, so the Bills outscored the Bucs, 44-32. They still are chasing the Pats, though.
Bears Win Ugly – A win is a win, they say. This time, much like Week 1, the Bears led 16-3 thanks to multiple INTs by MIN QB JJ McCarthy. Still, a comeback in the 4th by the Vikes set up a GW FG by CHI to win the game outright, 19-17. Bears are no in 1st place in the NFC North alone.
Broncos Outkick Chiefs – There may be a new sheriff in town, as the Broncos played really tough at home. K Will Lutz kicked 5 FGs, including 3 in the 4th Quarter to surpass the Chiefs in their 22-19 win. The Chiefs now trail DEN by 3 full games plus the head to head in the AFC West standings.
Rams TO SEA – A quick 14-0 lead looked like an easy day, but that tough SEA D held the Rams to only 7 more points even with SEA QB Sam Darnold throwing 4 INTs in the 21-19 loss. The Rams lead the NFC West, but it isn’t over yet.
Eagles Stuff Lions – The Lions’ HC Dan Campbell is calling plays now, but could not figure out the right calls as DET were 0-5 on 4th Down in critical plays and couldn’t get over the top in this one. PHI won, 16-9 with less offense than DET, but that Eagles D is pretty damn good.

Predictions: S/U 3-1, ATS 1-3, Totals 3-1 – KC/DEN was the real miss this week. Rams should have covered at least.

Wegs Index After Week 11

Not a ton of movement at the top, but there is movement within the top group.

Rams 8-2 (5.67 Index) – They are the most balanced team in the NFL.
Lions 6-4 (6.17) – DET’s D played well in SNF, but coaching cost them.
Colts 8-2 (7.17) – Colts have a chance to almost eliminate the Chiefs.
Chiefs 5-5 (7.17) – Chiefs need this win or else.
Patriots 9-2 (8.00) – Best path in the AFC for the 1 Seed unless they stub their toe.
Bills 7-3 (8.67) – BUF needs to keep winning to keep pace with NE.
Seahawks 7-3 (9.00) – Tough loss in LA, but Darnold TOs are the biggest issue.
Texans 5-5 (9.50) – That terrible O just needs to do something to win most games, but this week….

Wegs NFL Index 2025 Thru Week 11

Team	YD/G	Rank	P/G	YDA/G	PA/G	Pt Diff	TO Margin	Index Value
LAR	360.90	2	27.20	323.00	17.20	10.00	10.00	5.67
DET	366.90	8	29.20	291.80	21.60	7.60	5.00	6.17
IND	396.90	12	32.10	327.60	20.60	11.50	2.00	7.17
KC	364.20	10	25.40	296.80	18.10	7.30	3.00	7.17
NE	357.00	15	26.50	300.60	18.70	7.80	0.00	8.00
BUF	387.40	13	29.20	322.70	22.90	6.30	1.00	8.67
SEA	365.80	28	29.40	301.50	19.30	10.10	-7.00	9.00
HOU	329.60	6	22.00	258.10	16.30	5.70	7.00	9.50
GB	344.00	13	24.00	292.10	19.60	4.40	1.00	10.17
DEN	335.30	19	23.40	274.40	17.50	5.90	-3.00	10.33
JAC	326.90	4	24.00	323.60	22.60	1.40	8.00	12.67
LAC	347.30	17	22.40	286.10	21.60	0.80	-1.00	12.67
PHI	300.10	7	23.40	326.80	20.10	3.30	6.00	14.00
CHI	373.80	1	25.80	364.60	26.40	-0.60	16.00	14.17
TB	332.20	3	25.20	342.00	25.00	0.20	9.00	15.00
PIT	286.90	4	24.60	368.10	23.20	1.40	8.00	16.67
DAL	378.70	21	29.60	381.30	29.30	0.30	-4.00	17.17
SF	349.40	25	23.70	352.90	22.90	0.80	-5.00	17.17
ATL	332.50	9	19.50	326.50	23.90	-4.40	4.00	18.50
AZ	333.50	15	22.40	333.60	25.60	-3.20	0.00	19.17
BAL	322.00	18	25.20	354.10	25.10	0.10	-2.00	19.33
CLE	257.30	10	16.20	273.50	23.40	-7.20	3.00	19.67
CAR	314.30	21	18.80	325.90	22.60	-3.80	-4.00	20.00
MIN	296.40	31	21.80	317.50	23.20	-1.40	-9.00	21.00
NO	297.20	19	15.50	317.50	25.00	-9.50	-3.00	22.50
MIA	300.40	25	20.50	349.80	24.50	-4.00	-5.00	23.50
NYG	333.20	27	21.50	375.10	27.30	-5.80	-6.00	24.83
LVR	269.00	21	15.50	326.80	25.30	-9.80	-4.00	25.33
WAS	330.20	30	21.50	387.00	26.90	-5.40	-8.00	25.83
NYJ	281.50	32	20.90	329.70	26.80	-5.90	-11.00	26.67
CIN	307.10	28	22.80	418.20	33.40	-10.60	-7.00	27.33
TEN	242.50	21	14.30	352.50	27.30	-13.00	-4.00	28.33

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Key Matchups in Week 12

Bills at Texans (+6, 43.5 Total) – Thursday, 11/20 at 7:15 PM Central on Amazon – The Texans have clawed their way back into relevance, but they face Allen and that Bills’ O. Strength on strength, while the Bills’ D is not great against a putrid HOU O. So, the question is whether Allen can do enough to beat this top rated D versus Davis Mills for HOU. That seems likely, but that spread is just too big. HOU does not get blown out, so BUF wins, HOU +6, Total Under 43.5.
Steelers at Bears (-2.5, 45 Total) – Sunday, 11/23 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – The Bears and Steelers both lead the North divisions in the respective NFC and AFC. That’s the first time in a long while to have such a matchup. The Bears may have some more incentive to beat QB Aaron Rodgers who despite a broken hand will play on Sunday. The Steelers D is built to stop the pass, but the Bears should be able to run the ball pretty effectively, if QB Caleb Williams does not turn the ball over. So, I like CHI to win, Cover -2.5 and Over 45 points – I’ll be there watching at Solder Field.
Colts at Chiefs (-3.5, 50.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/23 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – It has been a long time since KC is fighting for their playoff lives. They did not look sharp off the Bye which is rare for an Andy Reid team. The Colts are coming off of their Bye, so they should be as healthy as can be with CB Sauce Gardiner in tow. Hard for me to not trust the Chiefs in a key game, but I think IND at least covers here. I’ll say KC wins (even though the dog that covers usually wins outright), IND +3.5, Total Under 50.5.
Bucs at Rams (-6.5, 49.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/23 at 7:20 PM Central on NBC – The Bucs end this gauntlet of playing NE, BUF and now LAR before getting the easy part of their schedule. The Rams are playing hard on both sides of the ball, and unless HC Todd Bowles can finally figure out a McVay Offense, the Rams are going to win and cover -6.5. So, I see that. Total Over 49.5.

Enjoy the week.

Wegs

Wegs NFL Index 2025 Thru Week 11

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