NFL: Dogs Strike Back in Week 9/Week 10 Preview

Finally, we got an “Any Given Sunday” type day with a lot of top teams going down.

Week 10 Recap – Dogs Strike Back

• Vikings Stunned Lions – 2nd Year QB JJ McCarthy was injured for weeks, and despite being 8.5 point dogs, the Vikings went into Detroit and worked the Lions over. It was not a great statline on O – 143 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, but the D limited the Lions to 65 yards rushing and sacked QB Jared Goff 5 times in the 27-24 road win.
• Panthers Shocked Pack – The Packers are typically great at home, and the spread showed it as GB was favored by 13.5 points. Well, the Panthers a forced 2 TOs and more importantly only allowed 1 TD in 5 Red Zone trips and somehow won with QB Bryce Young throwing only 102 yards. RB Rico Dowdle was the guy again with 130 yards and 2 TDs in the 16-13 road win.
• Steelers Turnover Colts – The Colts had been riding high all season. However, we all were waiting for that Daniel Jones game to happen – it happened, as the Steelers forced 6 TOs – 3 INTs from Jones and 2 fumbles included. The Colts tried to make it close late, but not enough as PIT bounced back in this 27-20 win.
• Bears Won Wild One – Anytime the Bengals play, it is must watch tv. The Bears after a loss at BAL were happy to see the CIN D who has been the worst in the league 2 years running. The Bears O put up a season team high 576 yards (4 out of 6 in the Red Zone) – RB Kyle Monangai rolled for 176 yards on 26 carries, but up 41-27 with 4:53 to play in the 4th was not enough of a lead. As CIN’s QB Joe Flacco (470 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs) hit TE Noah Fant for a score and recovered an onside kick and scored again with a TD pass to Iosivas to take the lead, 42-41. Well, no worries, as QB Caleb Williams (280 yards, 3 TDs, plus 53 yards rushing) hit rookie TE Colston Loveland (6 catches, 118 yards, 2 TDs) for a pass over the middle and he took it to the house for 58 yards and the win, 47-42. Wild.
• Broncos Came Back on HOU – In the NFL, you can’t win games just kicking FG (or 90% of the time anyway). HOU knocked on the door with 2 goal line stands by DEN’s D early forcing 2 FGs and eventually 5 FG to build a 15-7 lead. Yet, DEN was able to tie the game early in the 4th (plus a 2 point conversion), then they got a GW FG with 3 seconds to go winning 18-15. Note, HOU QB CJ Stroud was knocked out early with a concussion.
• Patriots Hold Off ATL – Leading 21-7 in the 2nd Quarter, the Falcons rocked back as QB Michael Penix hit WR Drake London over and over again – 9 catches, 118 yards, 3 TDs including a TD with 4:40 left in the game to cut the lead to 24-23, but missed the XP… The Pats were able to fight enough to stop the Falcons on their last drive to win the game, 24-23.
• Bills Take Out Chiefs – Well, maybe the Chiefs aren’t the best team in the NFL. The Bills did what they do to them in the regular season. RB James Cook ran for 114 yards, QB Josh Allen scored 2 rushing TDs, and he hit TE Dalton Kincaid for 6 catches, 101 yards and 1 TD. However, defensively, the Bills limited KC to 3 of 13 on 3rd down and only 305 total yards in the 28-21 win.
• Commanders Pummeled – Sometimes after a miracle year, there is regression, and this year it is WAS. QB Jayden Daniels led the Commanders on an amazing run in 2024. This year started with a minor injury putting him out a couple of games. However SEA came to town and just destroyed the porous WAS D – QB Sam Darnold threw for 330 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT. On D, they limited the WAS O to 290 yards and with the score 31-7 Daniels stretched for extra yards and dislocated his non-throwing elbow. HC Dan Quinn shouldn’t have had him in the game, and now he will likely not have his QB for the rest of the season. SEA continues to impress getting to 6-2 with this 38-14 win.

Predictions: S/U 2-2; ATS 2-2; Totals 2-2 – Not my best week, but better than some.

Fantasy Football – Trade Window

Injuries continue to ravage the league with QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Elbow – Out); QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Concussion); TE Tucker Kraft, GB (ACL – Out for Season). So, you still need to work the Waiver Wire. I’m going to focus on how you approach trades this time of year for the next 2 weeks before the deadline.

1. Convert Depth Into Studs – If you are a team that has a real shot of winning a title, then you should know that studs or stars win titles. If you have 4 or 5 guys you need to make decisions on every single week at WR and RB, then you will not likely guess right every week. It is better to have clear starters and clear backups at this stage. You can always get a handcuff at RB or have one matchup play at WR or Flex to play with. We have a good idea who are the tops guys, so if a team is middling or just out of the playoff race, that is a good trade partner to trade your depth for one great player – a 2 for 1.
2. Identify Emerging Players – Besides injury, which clearly happens every week, Week 10 and on you will see rookies or 2nd year players who can take you to the title. Look at TE Colston Loveland this week at CIN – he did almost nothing all year and has this 2 TD game. Will that be a pattern? Not sure, but you need to get the RB RJ Harveys of the world or the RB Kyle Monangais on your team. That will be the guy who wins you the league. How do you do it? It is about touches for RBs – not just carries and targets for WRs. If you are seeing consist touches and/or targets in the double digits – regardless of production, that guy is getting opportunities or part of the game plan.
3. Review Schedules – Weak schedules win titles. So, if you have a guy with a brutal schedule Weeks 14-17 and is a performing player, but not a stud, that is a great guy to shop. Try to find a player playing terrible Ds down the stretch. I’m thinking you look at players playing in bad defensive divisions – AFC East guys (against MIA and NYJ), AFC North guys (CIN), NFC East guys (WAS, DAL) as those matchups happen sometimes twice in December.

Next week, I’ll have my final push target guys for my final Fantasy Football post. Get active today with data or offers.

Wegs Index Through Week 9

As you can see, there is no clearly dominant team this year.

1. Rams 6-2 (6.00 Index) – Easier competition certainly helps, but the Rams are now in the Top 10 in all categories.
2. Chiefs 5-4 (6.17) – Not their best performance in BUF knocks them down to 2nd.
3. Colts 7-2 (6.33) Daniel Jones turned the ball over 5 times himself, and the schedule gets tougher after the Bye.
4. Bills 6-2 (6.67) – The Bills really bounced back after the Bye with 2 convincing wins.
5. Lions 5-3 (7.50) – When the running game gets stopped, the Lions are vulnerable.
6. Seahawks 6-2 (8.33) – The Seahawks are playing great against the lower opponents. Let’s see how they play against the rest of their division down the stretch.

Key Matchups in Week 10

Byes – Bengals, Chiefs, Cowboys, Titans

• Patriots at Bucs (-2.5, 48.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/9 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – The Pats continued to win, but it was very close for comfort in Week 9. The Bucs come off the Bye, so they should be mildly helpful. I think the Bucs are a better team here. Yes, QB Drake Maye has played well, but HC Todd Bowles has the ability to throw a lot at Maye to confuse him. I like TB to win, Cover -2.5, Total Under 48.5.
• Rams at 49ers (+3.5, 49.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/9 at 3:25 PM Central on FOX – A battle for the NFC West, and the Rams have revenge on their mind after blowing it a month ago. The 49ers are still not full strength and with 2 straight road games, they should be excited to be home. I still like the Rams here to win. I think the 49ers are not at the same level, so Rams win, Rams Cover -3.5, Total Under 49.5 – the Rams will score, but I don’t think SF will score like they did in LA.
• Steelers at Chargers (-3, 45 Total) – Sunday, 11/9 at 7:20 PM Central on NBC – Both teams are kinda pretenders to me. The Steelers D did turn over the Colts 6 times to get that surprise win last week, but can they do that every week? The Chargers are not a great home favorite, as the PIT fans will take over Sofi, so I think the line is pretty high for that reason. I’ll say LAC wins, PIT covers +3, Total Over 45.
• Eagles at Packers (-2.5, 44.5 Total) – Monday, 11/10 at 7:15 PM Central on ESPN – What a game!! GB was clearly looking ahead in their loss to the Panthers, but for good reason. The Eagles did not sit idle during their Bye Week – they made 3 trades to pump up their D, which I like. I think that flips the balance of power to the Eagles down the stretch. The Pack will play much better, but losing TE Kraft will definitely hurt this Offense. I like PHI to win this game, Cover +2.5 and Under 44.5.

Let’s have some fun in Week 10.

Wegs