NFL: Not Too Competitive Week 8/Week 9 Preview

The NFL is the most competitive sport top to bottom, as parity usually rules. This week was not that great.

NFL Week 8 Recap

• Chargers Bounce Back – After not looking like themselves for a couple weeks, the Chargers lit up the Vikings D on TNF 37-10, and it wasn’t even that close. QB Carson Wentz looked hurt from the start and was clearly getting worse as the game went on (now on IR for shoulder surgery). McCarthy needs to try to resurrect this team or they will continue to spiral.
• Jets Finally Won – The only really competitive game on the weekend was in Cincy. The Jets had a lot of back and forth with QB Tyrod Taylor getting scratched late giving Justin Fields the start after all. Well, the Bengals led by 15 in the 3rd and 14 in the 4th, but Fields and squad crushed it with 502 yards on O. I give HC Aaron Glenn credit for going for 2 and the win instead of the tie late, which worked out. The Jets got their first win, 39-38.
• Fins Shock Falcons – The Falcons were -7.5 favorites, and they had played well at home previously. Well, with QB Michael Penix not starting, Kirk Cousins was not good. On the other side, Tua found his weapons in a super efficient game, 20 for 26, 205 yards, but 4 TDs and 0 INTs. The 34-10 win saves HC Mike McDaniel’s job for another day.
• Texans Look Good – Well, maybe the Texans are a good team. QB CJ Stroud did not have WR Nico Collins, but he was great with 30 for 39, 318 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, plus 30 yards rushing. The D shut down RB Christian McCaffrey who only had 25 yards rushing (did have 43 yards receiving). Texans won, 26-15.
• Broncos Ran Out Boys – The game was tight in the first half, but DEN was able to score twice in the last 4 minutes of the 1st half to go from 14-10 to 27-10 really quickly. In the 2nd half, QB Bo Nix was able to get comfortable en route to a 44-24 win. Rookie RB RJ Harvey scored 3 TDs in this one.
• Packers Flipped the 2nd Half Script – Trailing 16-7 at the half, HC Matt LeFleur unleashed the Offense scoring 28 points, including 21 in the 4th – QB Jordan Love showed his “mentor” how it was done with 360 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs. TE Tucker Kraft crushed PIT, 7 catches, 143 yards, 2 TDs on National TE’s Day.

Predictions: S/U 4-0; ATS 2-2; Totals 4-0 – bounce back week, as Favorites crushed overall, 11-2, Overs at 10-3.

Fantasy Football – Last Waiver Wire Week

Injuries continue to decimate a lot of lineups (including my one team). RB Cam Skattebo, NYG (Broken Ankle/Leg, Out for the Season); RB Quinshon Judkins, CLE (Shoulder, Questionable); WR Drake London, ATL (Hip, Questionable – late scratch); QB Carson Wentz, MIN (Shoulder, IR); WR AJ Brown, PHI (Hamstring, Questionable); QB Mac Jones, SF (Knee, Questionable).

• QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (31% Rostered) – Yep, I’m a week late here, but if you are losing your guys on Bye or even injury, Tua takes on the Ravens, who will be better than earlier this year. However, they are still the 30th against the pass.
• QB JJ McCarthy, MIN (1% Rostered) – I know, I don’t like the guy either. However, McCarthy will start in Week 9 barring a setback. He plays DET this week in a negative game script (they will be trailing) then BAL and CHI again with those weapons – he should be added.
• RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (60% Rostered) – He had a couple of spectacular plays at IND, so he will get more run now that he is healthy.
• RB Tank Bigsby, PHI (12% Rostered) – Yes, the Eagles are on Bye, but Saquon left the game this week, and Tank will get the ball to spell Saquon more even if Saquon starts.
• WR Troy Franklin, DEN (62% Rostered) – Troy will not play the Cowboys every week, but he does have back to back games with a TD. His targets are way up – 10 last week, 8 this week – they play HOU next week – yikes, but Vegas the following week and after the Bye some great matchups. He can be a difference maker late.

Wegs Index Through 8 Weeks

When most favorites win, not a lot of major movement at the top, but some re-ordering.

1. Chiefs 5-3 (4.33) – Even after a bad 1st half, the Chiefs are showing why they are the top team in then NFL – 21-0.
2. Colts 7-1 (5.83) – The weak opponents keep coming, after the Bye we will see what they are made of.
3. Lions 5-2 (6.33) – The Bye should help the secondary to prep for JJ McCarthy.
4. Bills 5-2 (7.17) – Well, the Bye helped a lot, as the Bills trounced the Panthers. Big game this week.
5. Patriots 6-2 (7.83) – The Pats’ Strength of Schedule also has really buoyed them. It will get tougher at some point, but they are rolling.
6. Rams 5-2 (8.00) – The Rams do nothing to grab a share of the NFC West lead, as SF fell to HOU.

Key Matchups – Week 9

Byes: Eagles, Jets, Browns, Bucs

• Broncos at Texans (-1.5, 39.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/2 at 12 Noon Central on FOX – A matchup of top Defenses in this one. The Texans D is a cut above to me, but DEN has the better Offense. CB Patrick Surtain is likely out, but can HOU take advantage? If Nico comes back, then I would feel a lot better backing the Texans. They need to dig out of the hole they have dug earlier in the season, and this one is really important for that. So, I do like them to win the game, as QB Bo Nix is not great under pressure. I’ll go HOU to win, Cover -1.5, Total Under 39.5.
• Colts at Steelers (+3, 50.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/2 at 12 Noon Central on CBS – The Colts are a runaway train at this point. Maybe the Steelers can give an effort to slow down this attack. The saving grace is PIT should be able to score on this mediocre IND D. The game boils down to whether PIT can slow down RB Jonathan Taylor. I think they can at least a little, but not enough to get the upset, IND wins, Covers -3, Total Over 50.5 (I promise you more losses for IND will come after their Bye).
• Chiefs at Bills (+1.5, 52.5 Total) – Sunday, 11/2 at 3:25 PM Central on CBS – An epic match up again in the regular season with the battle of the MVP favorites in Buffalo. The Chiefs are the better team and favored here. However, I do think the Bills can do what they need to do against the KC D – run the ball. QB Josh Allen steps up in these matchups, even if their D is not great. The value is on the Underdog here, let’s just hope the Favorite Fest does not continue this week – BUF wins, Covers +1.5, Total Over 52.5.
• Seahawks at Commanders (+3.5, 46 Total) – Sunday, 11/2 at 7:20 PM Central on NBC – Look, it was a struggle to get 4 good games this week. The current line assumes QB Jayden Daniels is playing, so if he plays, maybe they can put up a fight. WAS’s D is terrible, so the QB Sam Darnold love should continue. I can’t see WAS winning this one, so SEA wins, SEA -3.5, Total Over 46.

Good luck this week.

Wegs