NFL: Favorites Reign in Week 7/Week 8 Preview

Sometimes the better teams just win (and cover). Sure, we had some interesting games, but it can be a ho hum week, too.

Week 7 Recap

• Bengals Have Flacco Fever – An exception to the Favorites this week was QB Joe Flacco going into the wayback machine for a stellar performance – 342 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs – it helped that the Steelers couldn’t cover WR Ja’marr Chase who had 16 catches on 23 targets, 161 yards, 1 TD. The Bengals have some hope now with this win, 33-31, to try and bridge Burrow’s return.
• Rams Crush Jags – Once the London Jags, they didn’t look ready for the contest there, as the Rams came out and simply pummeled the Jags – LA held Jacksonville to 3 of 15 on 3rd down and 2 of 6 on 4th down in the 35-7 beatdown.
• Colts Are For Real – I was a late adopter, but I have to change my tune. The Colts’ O is just a train. RB Jonathan Taylor sliced and diced the Chargers’ D with 94 yards rushing, 38 yards receiving and 3 TDs. Sure, the Chargers made a push and might have had a chance late, but late sacks by DE Deforest Buckner really killed any hopes. IND won, 38-24.
• Broncos’ Mile High Magic – We know that the altitude plays a factor in 4th Quarter comebacks, but 33 points in the 4th Quarter – literally trailed 19-0 going into the 4th. The Giants imploded, but actually responded with a late TD drive, but the missed XP (2nd in the game) opened the door for the GW FG to win as time expired in this wild, 33-32 game.
• 49ers Play Hurt – Somehow SF plays best when they are up against it with all the injuries – no Bosa, Warner on D; no Pearsall on O – no matter. The 49ers leaned on their guy, RB Christian McCaffrey, went off – leading rusher (24 carries for 129 yards, 2 TDs) and receiver (7 catches for 72 yards). ATL’s O really struggled in short yardage again and again, and SF held them off, 20-10.
• Lions End Bucs Magic – The Lions played inspired D on MNF, as they were flying around making QB Baker Mayfield uncomfortable. RB Jahmyr Gibbs was the dude with 218 combined yards and 2 TDs in the 24-9 win.
• Seahawks Hold Off HOU – The Seahawks came out smoking with WR JSN dominating – 8 catches, 123 yards and a TD, but give the HOU D credit. They forced 4 SEA TOs, including a strip-sack fumble recovery in the end zone. They just didn’t have enough Offense in the 27-19 loss.

Predictions: S/U 2-2, ATS 0-4, Totals 1-3 – gotta turn the page on an awful week spreads and totals. Favorites won, 13 of 15 games and covered 11 of 15. Rough week to be the Dog.

Fantasy Football – Waiver Wire

I’ll focus on the Wire for 2 more weeks, then switch to trades prior to your deadline. This week is a Bye-magedon – Cardinals, Jags, Lions, Raiders, Rams, Seahawks

Injuries this week: QB Jayden Daniels (Doubtful – Hamstring); QB Bryce Young (Doubtful – Ankle), WR Puka Nacua (Questionable – Ankle), TE Darren Waller (Questionable – Pec), NO Kendre Miller (Out for Season – ACL), WR Mike Evans (Out 6-8 weeks, Collarbone).

• QB Joe Flacco, CIN (22% Rostered) – Clearly, weapons matter, as Joe rocked the Steelers. He is going to be a good Bye Week replacement.
• RB Kyle Monangai, CHI (29% Rostered) – Swift is RB1, but the rook got a good number of carries, 13 plus a catch for 94 total yards and a TD. He clearly could carry the load.
• RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (49% Rostered) – Skattebo is the man, but Tracy has looked good since returning to the lineup – 9 carries for 46 yards and a TD is really good against a tough DEN D.
• WR Alec Pierce, IND (27% Rostered) – With Downs down, Pierce was the big play guy for the Colts’ high powered O – 10 targets, 5 catches for 98 yards – they continue to push the ball downfield.
• WR Xavier Legette, CAR (10% Rostered) – Maybe it is matchup dependent, as McMillan drew Sauce Gardner, but in Week 7, Legette dominated targets – 11 for 9 catches, 92 Yards and a TD.
• TE Oronde Gadsden, LAC (10% Rostered) – The rookie was outstanding on Sunday in the comeback, but that makes 2 straight games with 8 last week and 9 this week. He will get looks in most games.

Wegs Index Through Week 7

1. Chiefs 4-3 (4.67 Index) – Look out, the Chiefs are good on both sides of the ball. SB Odds improved to 5-1 – the odds on Favorite.
2. Colts 6-1 (6.17) – This team is like the 2024 Vikings – just super charged Offense.
3. Lions 5-2 (6.33) – Even with a depleted secondary, the Lions’ D played great vs. TB – NFC Favorite at +350.
4. Rams 5-2 (7.83) – The big performance in London bolstered the Rams, but they are balanced.
5. Patriots 5-2 (9.33) – How this team lost to the Raiders Week 1 is a mystery. Now, 4 straight wins and leading the AFC East – easy schedule does help.
6. Packers 4-1-1 (9.83) – Lived dangerously in AZ, but are the 1 Seed in the NFC.

Key Matchups in Week 8

• Vikings at Chargers (-3, 44.5 Total) – Thursday, 10/23 at 7:15 PM Central – This game features two teams that are struggling a bit. The big story to me is at QB for MIN. Carson Wentz has been lackluster after his first start. McCarthy will likely miss again, but I do not see Wentz keeping this job when he’s healthy. The Chargers needs to be better, in general. They are at home, but how much of a home field advantage do they have? I like the Chargers to get a win, but the number is too big for me, MIN Covers +3, Total Over 44.5.
• 49ers at Texans (-1.5, 42.5 Total) – Sunday 10/26 at 12 Noon Central on FOX – Will SF be able to rely on McCaffrey for everything again? Not against this D, now the HOU O needs Collins to be back from his concussion or they really do not have weapons. Still, I think the line is a little light, HOU wins, Covers -1.5, Total Under 42.5.
• Cowboys at Broncos (-3, 49.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/26 at 3:25 PM Central on CBS – Well, the DAL is still awful the last time I checked. I love the O and Dak with Lamb and Pickens are elite. However, DEN’s O should do what they want here. I like DEN to win, Cover -3, Total Over 49.5.
• Packers at Steelers (+3, 44.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/26 at 7:20 PM Central on NBC – A fun SNF game here, and I really did not like how PIT looked on D vs. Flacco. Still, HC Mike Tomlin as a dog is always a good play. Rodgers should show a little fight against his former team and backup. I think GB wins, but does not cover this one, PIT Covers +3, Total Over 44.5.

Keep on pushing.

Wegs