NFL: Upsets in Week 5/Preview Week 6

The NFL had been very tame, especially for Survivor Pools until Week 5 where unpredictability was inevitable.

Week 5 Recap

• 49ers Punch Out Rams – The Rams were a robust -8.5 favorite at kickoff with SF’s injuries – no QB Purdy, No starting WRs, DE Nick Bosa out for the year and TE George Kittle on IR. It was a chance for the Rams to gain a stronghold on the division. Instead, SF came out at scored 14 unanswered to start. The Rams roared back, but needed a late drive to potentially win the game down 23-20 – then SF forced a fumble at the 1 yard line from WR Kyrien Williams just before he scored. Still LA forced OT, but in OT a bad kickoff and a defensive stand at the 11 yard line in OT gave SF the outright win, 26-23 (my Survivor entries went with it).
• Broncos Closed Out PHI – It wasn’t how I saw it, but DEN after spotting PHI a 17-3 lead entering the 4th Quarter started to run the ball up the middle. Mixed in with some timely throws by QB Bo Nix, DEN scored 18 points in the 4th while shutting down the Eagles (who only gave RB Saquon Barkley 6 carries on the day). DEN won, 21-17.
• Bucs Did It Again – TB entered at 3-1 with all comeback wins and almost came back versus PHI the week before. Still SEA was riding high with 2 straight wins. Well, this game became a shootout – both QBs threw for over 340 yards (Baker, 379 and 2 TDs; Darnold 341, 4 TDs), but with the game tied after the Bucs scored inside of 4 minutes – Darnold’s pass deflected off of a helmet for an INT to LB Lavonte David setting up the game winning FG, 38-35. The Bucs now have won 4 games in the last minute of the game.
• Cardinals Epic Meltdown – I’ve never seen anything like this. In the 4th Quarter up 21-6, RB Emari Demercado broke free for a 71 yard run, but like the Colts last week – he flipped the ball free through the end zone before scoring. That play would have iced the game and likely got HC Brian Callahan fired in TEN. Instead, QB Cam Ward led 2 TD drives in the 4th Quarter including the 2nd TD where he threw an INT but the CB fumbled it, ball was kicked around into the end zone recovered by TEN’s WR Tyler Lockett for the TD. AZ crumbled, and TEN ended up kicking the GW FG ruining the AZ Survivor contestants across America, TEN got their first win, 22-21.
• Pats Best The Bills – You have to give HC Mike Vrabel credit, his team came ready to play in BUF. The Pats hung in the game even if when QB Josh Allen hit WR Curtis Samuel for the lead early in the 2nd half. However, QB Drake Maye handled the pressure over and over again setting up 2 TDs from early game goat, Rhamondre Stevenson. Maye led his team to a go ahead FG in the last minute, and the D held on the final plays for the huge AFC East win, 23-20.
• Jags Nipped Chiefs – We have been waiting for this out of the QB Trevor Lawrence led Jags. A primetime win over a great team. It wasn’t great at times, but after giving up the lead inside of 2 minutes, Lawrence led his team down including a dime throw to WR Brian Thomas on the sideline and even a fall inside the 5 yard line but he got up and ran in for the go ahead TD. The Jags move to 4-1 for the first time since 2007, plus dropping KC to 2-3 with this 31-28 Jags win.

Predictions: S/U 0-4, ATS 2-2, Total 1-3 – Unpredictable.

Fantasy Football – Waiver Wire Pickups

More injuries of note this week – RB Trey Benson (on IR and didn’t play this week); RB Bucky Irving (did not play in Week 5); and RB Omarion Hampton (Ankle on IR).

• QB Joe Flacco, CIN (5% Rostered) – Huge news today, as Flacco was traded from CLE to CIN for some draft picks. Clearly, Browning is not the answer, so why not go with the vet. The CIN O-Line is still not great, but Joe can chuck it to Higgins and Chase better than Browning. Must add now.
• RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (1% Rostered) – Vidal got run when Hampton came out immediately. So, he will have to compete with Haskins (3% Rostered) for touches. Both should be added.
• RB Michael Carter, AZ (67% Rostered) – It was uncertain who would get the most run between Carter and Demercado, but I’m pretty sure that blunder will cost Demercado playing time. Even before the big blunder (and run), Carter dominated touches – 23 to 3. Now, Zonovan Knight is another guy to add in deeper leagues – he also had a TD.
• WR Rashid Shaheed, NO (58% Rostered) – Shaheed broke out versus the Giants in Week 5 – 4 catches for 114 yards and a TD (80 yard TD). That is boom production, but in select matchups, he is usable.
• WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU (1% Rostered) – A bit of a long shot, but Hutchinson found the end zone 2x in Week 5 and is logging the 2nd most snaps for HOU. Someone has to step up in the passing game outside of Nico Collins, it must just be the rookie WR.
• TE Jake Tonges, SF (11% Rostered) – A week late here, but Tonges was a monster in Week 5 – 11 targets leading to 7 catches, 41 yards and a TD. He seems viable, especially with Jones at QB. He also has games with back to back TDs.

Wegs Index Through Week 5

Some movement after some huge performances. Here is the Top 6 Teams per the Index.

1. Colts 4-1 (4.67 Index) – No one beats terrible teams like the Colts, and they have soared to the top of the Index. They are Top 5 in every category, but Yards Against.
2. Lions 4-1 (6.17) – The Lions let up a little in the 2nd half at CIN, but still won by 17. They are the #1 Scoring Offense.
3. Bills 4-1 (8.00) – Yeah, the Bills D isn’t great, and if they can’t stop NE what will they do against a top O.
4. Texans 2-3 (9.83) – Two straight blowouts will help you move up. One thing is true so far, that D is nasty – 12.2 PPG is the best by over 4 PPG to the next closest team (DEN).
5. Three Way Tie
   • Broncos 3-2 (10.50) – That win over PHI is more important than the standings. I think it will help DEN work through late game situations. DEN just needs to not turn the ball over (still -2 in TO margin).
   • Rams 3-2 (10.50) – The lack of urgency against SF was notable. Still, they have the top WR in Puka Nacua. The D needs to take the ball away more (+1 TO Margin).
   • Packers 2-1-1 (10.50) – The Pack should be healthier after the early Bye. It is a get right week hosting CIN this week.

Key Matchups in Week 6

• Seahawks at Jags (-1.5, 46.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/12 at 12 Noon on FOX – A matchup of teams on the fringe of the Top 10. SEA’s D was lackluster against the Bucs, which was disappointing, while the Jags have continued to win with a lot of TO luck. I was impressed with Trevor Lawrence on MNF for sure. I just don’t know what to make of this game. The travel spot for SEA is not great here. The number is right on my spread, but at some point the Jags TO luck and general luck (Lawrence falling, getting up and scoring the winning TD) will run out. I’ll take SEA to win this game, Cover +1.5, Total Over 46.5. Should be a fun game to watch.
• 49ers at Bucs (-3, 47.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/12 at 3:25 PM Central on CBS – Can the 49ers do it again with an injured squad? Well, I, for one, will not bet against QB Baker Mayfield until further notice. The O is humming along, and if SF can’t get pressure on Stafford, the more mobile Mayfield, should eat. I think the line is right on this one, so TB wins, Covers -3, and I like Over again, 47.5.
• Lions at Chiefs (-2.5, 52.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/12 at 7:20 PM Central on NBC – What a game on SNF!! Finally, we get a treat (actually the last 2 weeks have been surprisingly great). So, hopefully, it delivers. DET looks like the NFL’s best team through 5 weeks, so getting points with them seems like the clear play. However, the Chiefs’ O is so much better now, and the O-Line really is performing well. So, my numbers have DET as a slight favorite (-0.5), so, you are getting value with the Lions in this matchup. KC needs this win for sure, so I understand it, but I’m not betting against the Lions until they play GB or another top D. DET wins, Covers +2.5, Total Under 52.5.
• Bills at Falcons (+4.5, 48.5 Total) – Monday, 10/13 at 6:15 PM Central on ESPN – The Bills who flirted with losses at home were taken out by NE. I do think the Bills are a better road team for whatever reason, but ATL should be ready for them at home. The D for ATL has played very well this season, and they will need to. The real edge I see in this game is ATL’s ability to run the ball on BUF. So, I’ll give BUF the win here, but the spread is way too high, ATL Covers +4.5 (they will have me on the Moneyline, too, as I think they are live in this one), Total Over 48.5.

Enjoy another exciting week.

Wegs