NFL: Big Losses and A Tie in Week 4/Week 5 Preview

With 4 weeks in, we have some trends. It does not mean the season is over for some, but certainly a lot of work for some teams that had big aspirations.

Week 4 Recap

• Seahawks Got Road Win – It was not pretty. Up big in the early 2nd half, they let AZ come all the way back to tie the game at 20. Then, the new kickoff rules reared their ugly head, as the AZ kicker shorted the kick in the “Dynamic Zone,” which led to a big penalty setting up the game winning FG. SEA won, 23-20 and is not tied for 1st in the NFC West at 3-1 (with the Rams and 49ers).
• Eagles Hung On – Apparently, the Eagles only can play one complete half of football right now. In the first, PHI dominated the undermanned TB squad, 24-6. However, the Bucs flipped the script in the 2nd half allowing under 30 yards of Offense and, get this, 0 completed passes in the 2nd half. QB Baker Mayfield seemed to be on track to pull yet another comeback, but was picked in the end zone in the 4th to fall short. However, of note, K Chase McLaughlin hit FGs of 42, 58 and 65 yards in this one. Still, PHI won the game, 31-25 remaining unbeaten at 4-0.
• Rams Pulled One Out – I was not a believer in the Colts’ early success, but they were game in LA. They led early, but LA scored a late 1st Quarter TD to grab the lead. Then, WR Adonai Mitchell made a great catch and was going to the house, but dropped the ball which went through the end zone for a touchback – which took 7 off the board. IND went on to still grab the lead at 20-13, but QB Matthew Stafford (375 yards passing, 3 TDs) hit WR Pakua Nacua (13 catches, 170 yards, 1 TD) for a tying TD, and then to Tutu Atwell (for his only catch of the game) on a broken coverage and an 88 yard TD for the lead and win, 27-20 in the late 4th Quarter.
• Ravens Are Broken – The SB Favorite in August have completely fallen on their face. The Chiefs who couldn’t score through 3 games, but they got right with WR Xavier Worthy back (121 total yards on 7 touches) en route to 37 points – BAL has now given up 133 points in 4 games – a league worst. More TOs for BAL – mostly QB Lamar Jackson who left the game with a hamstring injury. At 1-3, it may be a rough road back. Chiefs won, 37-20 and are back to level at 2-2.
• Cowboys Tied Pack – GB has not lost to DAL in some time, and with DE Micah Parsons coming back to DAL, it should have been a beatdown. It was early, but after a blocked XP converted to a 2 point return, DAL actually scored 2 late TDs against the Packer D. In the 2nd half, DAL punted on their first possession, but neither team punted after that – 6 consecutive TDs scored and GB had to drive with 35 seconds left to send the game to OT. In OT, both teams drove deep into each others’ territories, but settled for FGs (GB almost let time run out) – after 70 minutes of football, we got a tie….2nd highest scoring tie in NFL history at 40-40.

Weekly Predictions: S/U 3-1, ATS 2-2, Totals 2-2 – BAL was the big miss.

Season Predictions Through 4 Weeks: If only I stuck with my preseason predictions in all my bets instead of getting caught up in storylines. I’m starting off as good as ever with 70.31% correct (45-19) on a game by game basis through 4 weeks. I’ve correctly predicted 10 of 32 teams in their record (31.25%).

Correct Teams: BUF (4-0), WAS (2-2), CAR (1-3), PIT (3-1), NO (0-4), KC (2-2), LAC (3-1), TB (3-1), ATL (2-2) and NYJ (0-4).

Major misses: HOU (Prediction 4-0, Actual 1-3) – maybe they will find their stride on O – D is top in points against; IND (Prediction 0-4, Actual 3-1) – dead wrong on Colts – they seem like a good team.

Every other team is 1-2 games away, most one game off. Let’s keep it going.

Fantasy Football – More Waiver Wire Targets

It’s a bummer for big names to get knocked out for the year, and this guy was a first rounder – WR Malik Nabors (ACL – out for the season) and Tyreek Hill (horrible knee injury – out for season).

Guys I’ve mentioned in recent weeks that hopefully you grabbed already:

Quarterbacks:

• Daniel Jones, IND – been super solid
• Sam Darnold, SEA – With all the QB injuries, he is looking better and better
• Aaron Rodgers, PIT – Rodgers is a good matchup play and for the bye weeks, you will likely need him.

Running Backs:

• Trey Benson, AZ – He certainly can do better than Thursday – TEN should be a great matchup

Wide Receivers

• Quentin Johnson, LAC – He continues to make big plays and has been a great surprise.
• Wandale Robinson, NYG – He will be next in line in NY with Nabers out.
• Keon Coleman, BUF – Seems game script dependent.
• Elic Ayomanor, TEN – Still getting targets, but not the production.
• Tyquan Thornton, KC – Worthy cut into his targets, but at least he scored another TD.

Tight Ends

• Harold Fanin, CLE – Still hasn’t popped yet.

New Guys

• RB Woody Marks, HOU (54% Owned) – It’s my fault. I actually thought I already mentioned him in past weeks. Nick Chubb is not at the same level as in CLE pre-injury, and HOU finally gave Marks a shot. He delivered with 2 TDs and 119 combined yards on 21 touches. It was what I was clamoring for in that anemic offense. Grab him if you can.
• RB Kendre Miller, NO (30% Owned) – Miller had his best day of the season with 11 carries, 65 yards and a TD. He looked explosive. He gets some favorable matchups coming up, and seems to be gaining work even with Kamara healthy.
• RB Jayden Blue, DAL (1% Owned) – Javonte Williams has been a pleasant surprise in DAL, but Miles Sanders left the game on SNF. I think Blue will get some carries now. He has a chance to grab some workload in what is a really good Offense so far.
• WR Romeo Doubs, GB (58% Owned) – Look, he will not have 3 TDs every game, especially once Reed and Watson come back. However, it was hard to ignore who Love went to in the clutch. Doubs is a must add in all leagues, despite the Bye Week.
• TE Darren Waller, MIA (16% Owned) – Well, I guess he is in shape, as he lit it up on MNF for 2 TDs. With Tyreek Hill out, he will be at least the 2nd most targeted Fin.
• TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (49% Owned) – He is coming off of the injury list, and maybe this BAL O can use another dynamic target.

Wegs Index Through 4 Weeks

Maybe a week too early, but I think I need to Index for my picks now. The league is through September, which means the new preseason is over with. However, trends to mean something at this stage. Here is the Wegs Index which is made up of 6 categories: Yards Gained Per Game, Points Scored Per Game, Yards Allowed Per Game, Points Allowed Per Game, Point Differential Per Game, and Turnover Margin, Again, each category is ranked from 1 to 32 – 1 being the top in a category, then the 6 categories are averaged to achieve the Index Score – the Best Teams are the lower numbers, while the Worst Teams are the higher ones.

A few items to note: BAL’s D is awful – 31st in Yards Allowed and 32nd in Points Allowed, while a team like HOU’s O is terrible (29th in Points Scored), their D is 5th in Yards Allowed and 1st in Points Allowed. PHI may be 4-0, but they are 30th in Yards Per Game on O – with a mid-tier Index losses may be coming.

Index Top 6

1. Lions 4-0 (6.50) – 1st in Scoring and Point Differential, 6th in Yards and 4th in TO Margin
2. Bills 4-0 (7.33) – 2nd in Yards, Scoring and TO Margin, but 17th in Points Allowed
3. Colts 3-1 (7.67) – 3rd in yards, 4th in Scoring and 6th in TO Margin – SOS helped them get there, but they are playing well across the board.
4. Seahawks 3-1 (8.17) – I’m not a believer yet, but that D is 2nd in Points Allowed and Top 6 in Scoring.
5. Jags 3-1 (8.83) – The Jags have been winning despite making some boneheaded plays and penalties. 1st in TO Differential certainly helps get Ws.
6. Rams 3-1 (9.00) – The most balanced team with no ranking lower than 13th across the Board.

Week 5 Key Matchups

Byes: CHI, GB, ATL and PIT

• 49ers at Rams (-5.5, 47 Total) – Thursday, 10/2 at 7:15 PM on Amazon – Another TNF matchup in the NFC West (curious). Well, this will determine who gets in first place. The Rams pulled one out of their butts against the Colts after giving away the win at PHI. SF did not look great. QB Brock Purdy was not good at all and is likely going to miss the game, as will WR Ricky Pearsall, plus the D struggled without Bosa. I think the Rams win this game. I’m not in love with -5.5, which opened closer to -4 with the news. I think Rams win, SF Covers +5.5, Total is Under 47.
• Broncos at Eagles (-4.5, 43.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/5 at 12 Noon on CBS – The Broncos dominated the terrible Bengals. The Eagles have not put together a complete game effort yet. Will this be the game? I like the Broncos to be feisty in this game. The Eagles will probably win, but -4.5 is too many points. I think they finally play 60 whole minutes, and the Bo Nix slump continues. PHI wins, DEN Covers +4.5, Total Under 43.5 Total.
• Bucs at Seahawks (-3.5, 44.5 Total) – Sunday, 10/5 at 3:05 PM on CBS – The Bucs played much better in the 2nd half versus the Eagles, but this is a long trip from home. I think the coaching advantage goes to TB, but that SEA D is playing very well. The question is whether QB Sam Darnold can continue to play well. I think at this stage he will. TB is still not at full strength, and the Bucs, as much as they will be there in the playoffs to beat a team like SEA have been living too dangerously. SEA wins, SEA Covers -3.5 (hoping it drops to -3), Total Under 44.5.
• Chiefs at Jags (+3.5, 46.5 Total) – Monday, 10/6 at 7:15 PM on ESPN/ABC – Are the Jags for real? I don’t think so. The Chiefs started slow, but that D has been good all year. They just needed some guys back to score more points. Now with Worthy back and Thornton deep, the Offense has diversity. I think the Jags have won a couple of games even though they bumbled key situations. So, KC will take advantage of those mistakes in this one, KC wins, KC Covers -3.5, Total Under 46.5.

On to October.

Wegs