NFL: Week 1 Crazy Finishes/Week 2 Look Ahead

We are back, and as always we need to get some fun finishes to get the season started.

Week 1 Recap

• Steelers Outscore Jets – The game with the lowest total on the board (38) was the 2nd highest scoring game on the weekend. QB Justin Fields played great in his debut as the starter including 218 yards passing, 48 yards rushing and 3 total TDs. However, the wiley vet, Aaron Rodgers showed the Jets may have been worth keeping with 244 yards, 4 TDs and 0 INTs. The Steelers won this shootout, 34-32.
• Bengals Survive – It was not pretty, but after a losing Week 1 last year to a terrible team, the Browns were a big dog yet again. CLE was the better team in this one – their D held CIN to 7 yards in the 2nd half, 7!!! Still, CLE missed an XP and a FG with 2 tipped ball INTs to lose this game, 17-16.
• Colts Throttle Fins – Wow. Are the Fins that bad? To me, Mike McDaniel is done. He has lost this team, and good for QB Daniel Jones of IND for 272 yards, 1 TD and 26 yards rushing. 33-8, and it wasn’t even that close. McDaniel will be fired soon.
• Packers Dominate – Well, one week into the Micah Parsons’ era, the D looked pretty great. DET only had 46 yards rushing, meanwhile the Pack were really efficient with 27 points gaining just 266 yards, but 4 sacks by the Packers really helped field position. Pack won, 27-13.
• Bills Made Improbable Comeback – Watching this game, the Ravens were the best team in the league. RB Derrick Henry pummeled the Bills over and over again with 169 yards, 2 TDs. Plus, WR Zay Flowers added 7 catches, 143 yards and a TD. Up 40-25 midway in the 4th Quarter, but QB Josh Allen just got hot. He hit WR Keon Coleman for 1 TD, then converted a 1 yard run for the 2nd (after a terrible fumble by Henry), despite missing the 2 point conversion. The Ravens didn’t get a first down, and Allen drove them down to the game winning FG as time expired. Really bad beat, 41-40.
• Bears Blow It – The Ravens could not be outdone, but the Bears said – “Hold my beer….” The Bears were in complete control after a pick 6 of rookie QB JJ McCarthy from MIN. Well, after a blown drive that resulted in a missed FG from 50 (after a terrible intentional grounding by QB Caleb Williams), MIN finally found their O. McCarthy hit Justin Jefferson for 1 TD; CHI punt; another TD to RB Aaron Jones who was wide open; CHI punt; this time a wide open naked bootleg TD for McCarthy. The kid went from goat to hero. The Bears kinda mismanaged the clock late, too, as the Bears and new coaching staff were badly outcoached late by KOC and Flores in the 27-24 MIN win.

I’ll do predictions for this week’s games to get started.

Fantasy Football – Waiver Wire Pickups

For the first 7 weeks, I will focus on the Waiver Wire, then Weeks 8-10 on Trade Targets for the push to your playoffs.

• QB Aaron Rodgers, PIT (26% Owned) – Maybe Rodgers still has it. I liked him as a QB2 on your team. He had the 4 TDs, but I think he played pretty well against a tough D line, too.
• QB Mac Jones, SF (1% Owned) – Brock Purdy is questionable for this plum matchup in NO. The 49ers are banged up, so the upside is limited. However, Jones can throw to the RBs and whoever is playing TE to get 2 TDs, if you lost Purdy.
• RB Dylan Sampson (65% Owned) – The rookie was not great running the ball, 12 for 29, but he caught 8 receptions for 64 yards. That is great production in PPR leagues. He could be really great this season.
• RB Trey Benson (65% Owned) – Benson was touted last year yet disappointed, but he looked live in NO with 8 carries for 69 yards. He is a good stash candidate.
• Keon Coleman, WR (86% Owned) – I know I usually target players below 70% Owned, but Coleman is in the top WR in BUF. He went off in the comeback against BAL – 11 targets, 8 catches for 112 and a TD. He is a stud and should be owned in all leagues.
• WR Quentin Johnson, LAC (39% Owned) – The former 1st Round pick was balling on Friday with 7 targets, 5 catches for 79 yards and 2 TDs. That is great, and he looked good running more routes.
• WR Marquise Brown, KC (33% Owned) – KC does not have a lot of WRs Mahomes can trust – Rice is out 5 more games, Worthy was hurt on the 1st play on Friday. Brown was the option – 16 targets, 10 catches for 99 yards. You have to love that target share.
• TE Juwan Johnson, NO (8% Owned) – If you lost Kittle, then Johnson could be a good target. He led NO in targets with 11 leading to 8 catches for 76 yards. QB Rattler trusts him.

Wegs Index – will not start until after Week 4 (need the data)

Week 2 Feature Matchups

• Commanders at Packers (-3.5, 48.5 Total) – Thursday, 9/11 at 7:15 PM Central – A good matchup of teams that played well in Week 1. I’m still looking for a regression for both QB Jayden Daniels and the Commanders, in general. Maybe I’m wrong. I do know that the Packers D looked great, so I would expect more of the same. This total is high for that reason to me. I think the Green Bay will be tough to run up the score on. So, I’m not a huge fan of the hook here, but the Packers are better than WAS. If Daniels is able to avoid the rush, then they may have a puncher’s chance here. Still the Packers O was also good. I like GB to win, WAS +3.5, Total Under 48.5.
• Eagles at Chiefs (+1.5, 46.5 Total) – Sunday, 9/14 at 3:25 PM Central – Both teams, to me, did not look good. The Eagles will have DT Jalen Carter back (who missed the entire game in Week 1 with the spit ejection). So, the D shouldn’t be as bad as they were against the Cowboys. However, the Chiefs going 0-2 seems hard to fathom. I do not lay points against QB Patrick Mahomes too often (besides the SB). In this case, I will pick KC to win, Cover +1.5, Total Under 46.5.
• Falcons at Vikings (-4.5, 44.5 Total) – Sunday, 9/14 at 7:20 PM Central – As noted, JJ McCarthy found his feet in Week 1 in the 4th Quarter, so coming home should bolster his performance. The Falcons did not look great, but the O has a lot of options. Can QB Michael Penix read the blitzes and get the ball out right? I think he will, better than Williams in CHI anyway, but maybe not enough to win this one. MIN wins, ATL +4.5 (too many points), Total Over 44.5.
• Bucs at Texans (-2.5, 42.5 Total) – Monday, 9/15 at 6 PM Central – Another fun matchup in the Game 1 on MNF. The Bucs got a win on the road, and they go again to HOU which is not a good spot. Well, this HOU D is really good and played tough in LA. Yet, the O could not get it done. TB was vulnerable at ATL, but the line for HOU is not very good (despite my hopes and bets on HOU). I think HOU is going to win this game, but laying the points is going to be tough. I’ll do it for my prediction – HOU -2.5, but not advised as a Top 5 pick. Total for this one is another Under 42.5 (HOU will be an Under team most of the season).

Enjoy Week 2!

Wegs