We are about to start the most exciting season of the year – the NFL season. I’ve re-run my numbers based on training camps to get my final predictions game by game that I will track throughout the year. Also, you will find my playoff and Super Bowl predictions.

Here is how I will structure the predictions. For each team, I will list their Seed, Predicted Record, Odds to win their Division, Conference and Super Bowl. I’ll include some of my best bets, as well.

AFC

Bills Should Be #1 Seed

Playoff Teams/Seeds

1 Seed – Buffalo Bills (15-2) -286 AFC East, +350 AFC, +700 Super Bowl – The Bills have a relatively easy schedule – their tough matchups against – BAL, KC, TB, CIN and PHI are all at home. Their toughest road game is at HOU in Week 12.

2 Seed – Denver Broncos (13-4) +300 AFC West, +1300 AFC, +2800 SB – I have the Broncos finally knocking the Chiefs off in the AFC West, but barely. They open with a light schedule for a couple weeks then their toughest stretch is Week 3-5 – at LAC, CIN, then at PHI. They play at HOU in Week 9 and KC right before their Bye. The division may come down to Week 17 at KC and home versus LAC in Week 18. My bet here is DEN +300 for the AFC West Crown.

3 Seed – Houston Texans (13-4) -106 AFC South, +1300 AFC, +3000 SB – I’m bullish on the Texans this year. I think that D is nasty, and they can play anywhere. CJ Stroud had his sophomore slump, and he should bounce back with the new OC. They will be throwing a ton this year, as the RBs and line are not great. I like him as a dark horse MVP candidate in 2025. They start tough at LAR, TB and at BAL in Week 5, but they get to play DEN, BUF at home before going to KC in Week 14. My bets here are AFC Title at +1300, Most Wins at +2800 and CJ Stroud MVP at +2500.

4 Seed – Baltimore Ravens (12-5) -155 AFC North, +325 AFC, +650 SB – The Ravens are the best team in the AFC on paper, but their schedule is not kind. Week 1 at BUF, at KC Week 4, HOU at home Week 5, LAR at home Week 6, then it lets up for a while until CIN at home Week 13 and at CIN Week 15 with a trip to Lambeau Week 17. I think they will win the division still, but not without difficulty. I will likely wait for the Ravens to drop a game or two in that first 6 weeks to get a better number on the AFC Title and Super Bowl – no value right now for me.

5 Seed – Kansas City Chiefs (13-4) -122 AFC West, +375 AFC, +800 SB – The blasphemy not having the Chiefs be the 1 Seed. Well, they won so many games in the final minute last year or by luck, I have to regress them a little bit. The D is great, as is Mahomes, but Kelce is done and their run game is soft.

6 Seed – Cincinnati Bengals (12-5) +240 AFC North, +1000 AFC, +2000 SB – I’m probably too high on the Bengals this year, as their D is still suspect. However, they have a much easier schedule than the Ravens. At DEN in Week 4 and at GB in Week 6 are the only really tough games before their Bye. That is why I’ll buy the Ravens once CIN jumps out early. The remaining schedule is not that bad, but at BAL Week 13, then at BUF Week 14, BAL at home Week 15 is a tough stretch before closing with easier opponents. They are probably a good pre-season Division and AFC bet, but I need to see them beat CLE Week 1 to buy in. If they can make the playoffs, they will be dangerous.

7 Seed – Los Angeles Chargers (10-7) +325 AFC West, +1300 AFC, +3000 SB – The Chargers are about where they were last year with a better RB. They may challenge the Broncos and Chiefs, but unless Bo Nix regresses for DEN, I think they are a cut below, but in the playoffs.

Just missing the playoffs:

  • New England Patriots (9-8) +525 AFC East, +3000 AFC, +6600 SB – I love the Vrabel hire, so I bet NE to make the playoffs at +155. However, in my final analysis, they will start out quick with some easier opponents, but struggle in the middle of the schedule – at BUF Week 5, at TB Week 10, at CIN Week 12, BUF Week 15, at BAL Week 16 – so if they can go clean the rest of the way, sure, they can make it. It will be tough though.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8) +550 AFC North, +2000 AFC, +4500 SB – Originally, I had them at 8-9, so yes, officially I now have them over .500 – Mike Tomlin continues the streak. However, QB Aaron Rodgers is not enough to qualify in 2025.
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) +300 AFC South, +4000 AFC, +8000 SB – An improved Offense should help this team be in the running, but fall short. I actually think they can challenge HOU if they can beat that team for the first time in years. I’ll believe it when I see it. Jags Over 7.5 Wins is -117 seems in play, and after a slow start (2-5 or 3-5, I’ll look at the win total for plus money), they should finish strong with a weak 2nd half schedule.

Not close to qualifying:

  • New York Jets (6-11) – QB Justin Fields will not be the answer in NY.
  • Tennessee Titans (6-11) – Rookie QB Cam Ward will take his lumps early, but find some success mid-season. He will likely be OROY, and even though the D is decent, their lack of weapons will show in the 4th Quarter time and time again. I”ll likely bet TEN as an underdog a lot after the first 4 weeks.
  • Cleveland Browns (5-12) – The Browns should let Shedeur start as soon as possible to see what they have, as the D will be good.
  • Indianapolis Colts (4-13) – The fall for the Colts will be far. The secondary is bad. QB Daniel Jones is not great, and it seems they have moved on from Anthony Richardson. I think Steichen will likely be out by the end of the year with new leadership at the top (GM Ballard, too).
  • Miami Dolphins (4-13) – The Fins are giving me bad vibes. I actually bet them for fewest wins +2000 and Under their win total of 7.5 (-103). They have talent, but the D is bad, and the culture seems dysfunctional.
  • Las Vegas Raiders (2-15) – I know this is really harsh for a team with a new coach and an exciting rookie, but I think they will tank for Manning if they have the chance to pair with Jeanty.

AFC Playoffs

Wild Card Round

  • 2 Broncos over 7 Chargers
  • 3 Texans over 6 Bengals – should be a classic
  • 4 Ravens over 5 Chiefs – I know blasphemy

Divisional Round

  • 4 Ravens over 1 Bills – revenge for the Ravens
  • 3 Texans over 2 Broncos

Championship Game

  • 4 Ravens over 3 Texans – I’ll be hedging my +1300 HOU ticket for the AFC

NFC

Eagles Will Be #1 Seed

Playoff Teams/Seeds

1 Seed – Philadelphia Eagles (13-4) -157 NFC East, +350 NFC, +650 SB – The Eagles should win the NFC East again, despite the trend historically. The health of Saquon Barkley still worries me, but their D should carry them through a tough schedule to the 1 Seed.

2 Seed – San Francisco 49ers (13-4) +150 NFC West, +900 NFC, +1700 SB – The change from my divisional preview is the health of Stafford. I think the 49ers are banged up now, but they should be able to get wins with the D and running game until they round into form. Week 1 at SEA will tell me a lot about my prediction. The bottom line is their schedule is really weak – Outside of the Rams, they only play two other playoff team this year at TB Week 6 and at HOU Week 8.

3 Seed – Tampa Bay Bucs (12-5) -106 NFC South, +1200 NFC, +3000 SB – The Bucs are the class of the South again, and I do not see any real challenger. Injuries to OT Tristan Wirfs and WRs Godwin and McMillan will hurt early, but their run game and D will be just fine. They may be closer to .500 mid-season to grab plus money on the Division, but they close AZ Week 13, NO Week 14, ATL Week 15 (all at home), at CAR Week 16, at MIA Week 17 and CAR at home Week 18. That could be 6 wins to close the year.

4 Seed – Green Bay Packers (11-6) +180 NFC North, +650 NFC, +1400 SB – Somebody needs to win the North, and I think the Pack were the most complete team, even before acquiring Micah Parsons. I bet +260 for the Division is one of my best bets, still like +180. Plus, I think they are a team that can beat anyone in the NFC. Early tests vs. DET Week 1, WAS Week 2, then an early bye at CIN Week 6, Week 10 vs PHI, at DET on Thanksgiving Week 13, then late AFC games at DEN Week 15 and at home BAL Week 17. It is a lot of losses, but they should get this division.

5 Seed – Los Angeles Rams (10-7) +195 NFC West, +1000 NFC, +2000 SB – I’m hedging a bit here, as I did bet +185 to win the NFC West (number has moved to +195), but the Stafford injury really scares me. Backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo does not give me the same feeling, as Stafford. I like their D, so they should make the playoffs, but contenders without Stafford seems a stretch. So, I lowered my expected wins closer to the 9.5 win total.

6 Seed – Washington Commanders (9-8) +215 NFC East, +900 NFC, +1800 SB – I have them in the playoffs, but to be honest, the number of last minute, one score games that they won in 2024 is not sustainable. Regression is coming, so it is a question by how much. The key games on their schedule are at GB Week 2, at LAC Week 5, at DAL Week 7, at KC Week 8, DET at home Week 10, DEN at home Week 13, then PHI Week 16 and Week 18 (at PHI). It’s a tough schedule. So, a bet I did not do, but contemplated is No Playoffs +118 and Under 9.5 Wins -107.

7 Seed – Chicago Bears (9-8) +600 NFC North, +2000 NFC, +4000 SB – It looks like a homer pick, but the Bears schedule is the easiest of the other NFC North teams, and I expect regression from DET and MIN this year. HC Ben Johnson will get the Offense going, and the D just needs to be solid. Their toughest games are at DET Week 2, at WAS Week 6, at BAL Week 8, at CIN Week 9, at PHI Week 13, then at GB Week 14 and again Week 16 and at SF Week 17. To me, those are their 8 losses.

Just Missing the Playoffs:

  • Detroit Lions (8-9) +175 NFC North, +550 NFC, +1300 SB – 2 new Coordinators, 2 lost All Pro linemen on O, yes, Hutchinson is back, but that D wasn’t good with him on it. I’m not solid on them. I think they missed their window. I’ll probably be wrong, but let’s see in Week 1 at GB how they do. If you believe in them, then wait to buy in after this stretch – at BAL Week 3, CLE Week 4, at CIN Week 5, at KC Week 6, TB at home Week 7 – so if they split or are under .500, they will be better after their Bye. Still, they have games at WAS Week 10, at PHI Week 11, GB at home Week 13, at LAR Wek 15. So, that is a rough schedule. They will need to earn it to convince me.
  • Dallas Cowboys (8-9) +800 NFC East, +3000 NFC, +6000 SB – The D needed Micah Parsons, and now he is in GB. QB Dak Prescott should be slinging it a lot to Lamb and Pickens, so I like his over props. I had them on the fringe, but the 8 wins is generous. More likely 6-7.
  • Arizona Cardinals (8-9) +425 NFC West, +2500 NFC, +6000 SB – I keep hearing how AZ is going to be good this year. Maybe they will be. They won 9 games last year, so this would be a downgrade. I think that if SF falls flat again, then they can make the playoffs. For now, I have them on the outside.
  • Atlanta Falcons (7-10) +225 NFC South, +3000 NFC, +6600 SB – QB Michael Penix may be an upgrade, but is the D any good? I don’t think so. TB will continue to dominate the division, and I think CAR will be improved to knock them down a peg.

Not Close to Qualifying

  • Carolina Panthers (6-11) – I want the Panthers to be better, but their D is going to get run over again. QB Bryce Young will hit rookie WR Tet McMillan a ton. So, they could be a fun duo. I think they will not do enough to improve.
  • Minnesota Vikings (5-12) – Yes, the shocker of all shockers, I’m down on MIN again. Their expected win total is 9.5, but they were 9-1 in games by one score in 2024. The D is really good, and they have weapons for QB JJ McCarthy. However, their schedule is rough, too. If they can’t go 4-1 or 5-0 out of the gate with McCarthy getting acclimated, then my prediction will come true. They play PHI Week 7, at LAC Week 8, at DET Week 9, BAL Week 10, at GB Week 12, WAS Week 14, and they finish with DET and GB at home Weeks 17 and 18. They probably will be more like 7-10, so I decided to ladder their win totals: Under 9.5 (-134), U 8.5 (+123), U 7.5 (+220), U 6.5 (+325) and U 5.5 (+550) – small bets, but if they do crash, then I’ll be a happy man.
  • Seattle Seahawks (5-12) – I’m not seeing this team. I know they were almost in the playoffs in 2024, but they lost 2 key WRs and their QB. SF should be back, so can this team repeat the results? I’ll believe it when I see it.
  • New York Giants (4-13) – The Giants are not going to be great, but that D Line is impressive, which will help them win games. The quicker they can go to rookie QB Jaxson Dart, the better. Mid-season win totals may be a look to the Over, if they start slow.
  • New Orleans Saints (3-14) – The Saints will battle the Raiders (and Fins) as the worst team in the league in 2025. In fact, you can bet them to get 0 Wins +3000, which I did not bet, since they play the Giants in Week 5 at home. That may be the battle of last winless (the Titans need to beat IND Week 3 to avoid that moniker). Is there any hope? Arch Manning (the projected #1 Pick) could return to where is grandfather and namesake played in the NFL….

NFC Playoffs

Wildcard Round

  • 2 49ers over 7 Bears
  • 3 Bucs over 6 Commanders – revenge from last year
  • 4 Packers over 5 Rams

Divisional Round

  • 3 Bucs over 2 49ers
  • 4 Packers over 1 Eagles

Championship Game

  • 4 Packers over 3 Bucs – this does seem like an unlikely matchup for sure. Road teams winning so many games, however outside of PHI, there is not a great home field advantage unless GB is higher seeded.

Super Bowl Prediction

I’m going back to the well for the 2nd year in a row, as I bet the Packers +2000 to win the Super Bowl (before the Micah trade), however for the purpose of the prediction…..

Lamar Gets His Title

Ravens beat the Packers – 27-21 in a changeup match up from the Eagles, Chiefs, 49ers. Lamar Jackson gets the monkey off his back and wins Super Bowl MVP. As I mentioned, I’m going to buy into the Ravens’ SB Futures after Week 6 to hopefully get a better number than +700 (looking at +1000).

There you have it. We are ready for the season. Let’s get it on!!

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.