This period is usually my off season, but it is hard to sit on the sidelines when you see so many things happening around various sports this first week of June.
NBA Finals – Thursday, 6/5 at 7:30 PM Central on ABC
Well, true NBA heads should be excited with the matchup between Oklahoma City and Indiana. Both teams feature young talent and a wide open attack. OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the league MVP, and he plays both ends. OKC has the best D in the league, meanwhile the Pacers have been the best team since the All Star Break. Coach Rick Carlisle has this group pumping in 3s at a record clip. It should be a fun series, and regardless, we will have a first time NBA champion. The last time we had 2 teams that had not won a title face off in the Finals – 2006 – Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat (the Wade-Shaq team). So, there is some intrigue, although the Thunder are heavy favorites (-715) to be the Champ.
However, with all that said, I do not recall any NBA Finals matchup with 2 small markets like this in my fandom. By MSA, Indy is 33rd and OKC is 42nd in the US. I cannot find a combination remotely close to that low of numbers from an area fanbase. Plus, you do not have major stars like a Lebron (for CLE – 34th), Giannis (MIL – 40th), or even Tim Duncan (San Antonio – which is 24th). However, both teams are in small markets.
Knicks Fire Thibs
The Knicks were not satisfied with their first trip to the NBA Eastern Conference Finals in 25 years, and Jim Dolan fires Tom Thibodeau. Yep, the Knicks went to the playoffs 4 of 5 years, and had back to back 50 win seasons, but I guess that’s not enough for Dolan. In some ways, I get it. Thibodeau is a great coach, but more of a regular season guy. He pushed my Bulls to the brink only to lose to the Heat. Thibs pushes his guys hard all season, which gets you wins, but perhaps not enough in the tank for the Title. Still, the Knicks have been terrible for decades, and I would guess most Knick fans would want him to stay.
There is talk of Jay Wright coming in to coach the Knicks, who have several former Nova players from his dynasty. Yet, what can be said, Wright is a professional and certainly would look great on the Knicks’ sideline, but there is no guarantee he can take the Knicks to the Finals for the first time since Patrick Ewing retired. Plus to actually win it since Willis Reed took them to the title (before I was born in 1973).
Good luck, Knicks!!
Stanley Cup Finals – Today – Wednesday, 6/4 at 7 PM Central on TNT and TRU
A Rematch in the NHL for Lord Stanley’s Cup with Florida (+103 for Title) trying to repeat and have reached their 3rd straight Finals. The Edmonton Oilers (-122 series favorite) fell short in Game 7 in 2024 to the Panthers, but this year they will host such a game, if it goes that far and try to win their first Stanley Cup since 1990. Should be a fun series.
Illinois Sports Gambling Law Change
So, in May of 2018, US Congress repealed PASPA to open the door for states to regulate sports gambling on their own. In 7 short years, 38 states (plus DC and Puerto Rico) allow sports gambling with 30 of those states allowing online sports gambling in some form. Illinois, my home state, has been at the forefront of allowing sports gambling, but now seems to be trying to kill the golden goose. In 2024, the state passed a law to increase the taxes paid by sports gambling operators on a graduated basis up to 40% where the old law was a flat 15%. This year, Illinois slipped in a law Saturday night (5/31) which was not on lobbyist radar on Friday, 5/30 that got approved to tax every single bet by a sports gambling online specifically. The law is supposed to generate revenue for transit in the state…..
What are the potential ramifications?
- Operators May Increase Bet Limits – If you are a little guy who wants to put a $1 parlay on a game, that may go up to $5 or some other minimum so the operator can cover this tax. The state contends that is does not want problem gambling, but increased limits would be a counter move to that.
- Operators May Pass The Fees Along – If every bet costs an operator $0.25 or $0.50 per bet, then what is going to stop the operator putting that on the consumer? That difference in bet efficiency is 5% on a $10 bet, which effectively means you will need to hit at a near 58% rate on your bets to be profitable. Where now you are closer to 53-54%. Here is a typical transaction:
- $10 Bet at -110 Vig – Payout is $9.10 – so that’s an efficiency of 91%
- $10 Bet plus $0.25 at -110 Vig – Payout is $9.10 – 88.78% efficiency
- $10 Bet plus $0.50 at -110 Vig – Payout is $9.10 – 86.67% efficiency
- Bettors Will Go Elsewhere – In the long run, losing more money on the fees or with higher limits will likely push bettors to either return to offshore books or to illegal operators like bookies
- Other States Will Follow – Most people may say, well, I’ll go to Indiana or Missouri to make my online wagers, but states are lemmings, I would expect a lot of states will follow IL’s lead.
Fanduel and Draftkings respective stocks have already dropped with the news of this tax. So, this is not just a rich operators clamoring for more profits. I listened to an interview with a financial expert saying that this tax along with the progressive tax from 2024 effectively puts the tax rate on operators at 50% which is insane. The last second nature of the tax also is so hinky that I am disappointed in the Illinois legislators. If you want to pass a law, there should be a review and transparency to discuss how it affects constituents and companies alike.
So hold on to your hats. It could be an interesting June.
Wegs