College Hoops: Let the Games Begin

The field is set.  The Madness is about to begin.  Let’s dig into the entire field and make some predictions.

The Field

South Region

Top Seeds:

1. Auburn – The #1 overall seed really gets a pretty tough draw here, but they have the opportunity to bounce back after slipping in the final 3 weeks after clinching the SEC Regular Season Title.  This starting 5 is mature to say the lease, and Johni Broom is a Player of the Year guy.
2. Michigan State – The Spartans were also a regular season champ, and also did not win their conference tournament.  However, they are a really good squad, and Coach Izzo is best in March.
3. Iowa State – The Cyclones have been banged up for months.  They will not have Keshawn Gilbert in the tournament, but they play great D and metrically are as good as anyone.  Do you trust them?
4. Texas A&M – The Aggies are a tough team to peg.  Great D, but not a good shooting team.  They are a bunch of dudes rebounding, but can they make a deep run.

Other Seeds to Watch:  8 Louisville really got a poor seed which tells you have the Committee felt about the ACC strength (outside of UNC’s gift), they will push Auburn if they advance.  12 UC San Diego – this is a team to watch, as this team in its first year of eligibility in Division I has been great.  They are upset minded against 5 Michigan.

Regional Winner:  In some ways, I think Sparty could get here, but Auburn has been a great team all year and they will get to San Antonio.

West Region

Top Seeds:

1. Florida – The Gators have been the hottest team in the country for the past month, and a blistering 13-2 against the spread.  Their depth and size both will pose huge problems for everyone.
2. St. Johns – Coach Rick Pitino has turned around the storied program in just 2 years.  They have the best statistical defense in the country, and they have some guys who can get buckets.  They will be tough.
3. Texas Tech – The Red Raiders are flying under the radar again – a top 10 Kenpom team with a seed outside the Top 10, essentially.  They could be a spoiler here in this loaded region.  To me, The West is the toughest region, and if they were in the East or Midwest, then they would have a real shot.
4. Maryland – The Terps, in my opinion, are the best team in the Big Ten this year with the now famous – Crab 5.  What they lack in depth, they have in top line players.  So, they will be a tough out in the West.

Other Seeds to Watch:  12 Colorado State – my alma mater has won 10 straight games and were woefully under-seeded, if they can get past a good 5 Memphis team, then they can get to the Sweet 16.  11 UNC should have not been in the field, but they crushed San Diego State and could keep it up into the Sweet 16.

Regional Winner:  Florida is the best team here to me.  Maybe, St. Johns can shock, them, but not unlike Sparty – there has not been a team since the 64-team expansion not ranked in the pre-season Top 25 to exceed its seed – that means St. Johns and Sparty would make history if they go to the Final Four.

East Region

Top Seeds

1. Duke – The Top-rated team in Kenpom, and even without Cooper Flagg, they won the ACC tournament.  This team has not lost a game in a couple months, and they are long, which sets the tone on D.  They are the betting favorite to cut down the nets.
2. Alabama – Well, the Tide got a favorable seed despite not winning the SEC or even being in the top of the regular season.  Bama does not defend, which will cost them eventually.
3. Wisconsin – The Badgers do something that they usually do not do – Score Points – this team can actually fill it up.  That makes them a threat, I just do not believe in them.
4. Arizona – Another team that is over-seeded here, as AZ did get to the Big 12 Title Game, but they lack toughness in big games.  Coach Tommy Lloyd has underachieved in the tournament every single year.

Other Seeds to Watch:  6 BYU – the Cougars are a really good team that won tough games on the road in the Big 12, but they face a really tough 11 VCU team in Round 1.  13 Zips are definitely able to knock off the Wildcats.

Regional Winner:  I think you are seeing a theme here, but Duke is the best team by a lot here. 

Midwest Region

Top Seeds:

1. Houston – This group of Cougars is probably their best on both ends of the floor.  LJ Cryer gives them a shot to keep up with some higher scoring teams.  They are a real threat.
2. Tennessee – The Vols made it to the Elite 8 last year, but I do not think they can score like last year.  I love some of their players – Zakai Ziegler is great, but they struggle to score too often for me.
3. Kentucky – This team has been getting love all year, but I do not see it.  They are more like a 5 seed to me, so they may get to the Sweet 16 due to seeding, but they will not get to San Antonio.
4. Purdue – I’m not sure what the Committee was thinking here.  The Boilers limped into in the end of the season.  They are over-seeded.

Other Seeds to Watch:  6 Illinois has Top 5 talent, but is really inconsistent, but if they can get hot, they will be a tough out; 5 Clemson went to the Elite Eight and has most of the same guys, plus they have only lost 2 games in 2 months; 13 High Point will have Purdue on upset alert.

Regional Winner:  Houston has an easy path to me, so they are my pick, but Clemson or Illinois could be the dark horse.

Final Four in San Antonio

Can you say Chalk? I know I’m disappointed in myself, too, but maybe it isn’t that easy of an idea. The last time there were 4 #1 Seeds in the Final Four was 2008 – that is 17 years.  So, it is extremely unlikely that this will happen.  Yet, these are the 4 best teams to me.  I would be very happy to see St. Johns, Michigan State or even BYU make the Final Four, but I do not think it will happen.

Duke over Houston – Can the Blue Devils shake off the “soft” moniker?  I think they can.  Their lack of tough competition since the non-conference schedule may show here, however this team can play both ends.  The Cougars will be game here, but not enough to win.

Florida over Auburn – The All-SEC semi-final will be a rematch of the regular season games, which the Gators won at Auburn.  I just think Florida is too deep and athletic for the Tigers.  It will be a classic, no doubt, but the Gators move on to Monday night.

Championship Game

Gators overcome Duke – It will be a talent laden game with NBA prospects aplenty, which to me shows the health of college basketball.  The Gators depth and experience playing tough games each and every week will help them down the stretch in this title game.  Coach [] will break the metrics as he would become the first coach to win the title without going to the Sweet 16 previously.

Final Score:  76-72

Let the games begin.

Wegs