College Hoops: Last Dance for Many

It’s full Champ Week, and many teams are trying to get on the right side of the Bubble or just outright win their tournament to get that coveted Auto-Bid.

Tickets Already Punched

Look at how many first timers we have this year!

• Ohio Valley – SIU Edwardsville Cougars (1st appearance in D-1 tourney)
• Big South – High Point Panthers (1st appearance in D-1 tourney)
• ASun – Lipscomb Bisons (1st appearance since 2018)
• Missouri Valley – Drake Bulldogs (avoid sweating the Bubble)
• Summit – Omaha Mavericks (1st appearance in D-1 tourney)
• Sun Belt – Troy Trojans (1st appearance since 2017)
• SoCon – Wofford Terriers (were the 6 seed in their tourney back in the Dance since 2019)
• CAA – UNC Wilmington Seahawks (1st appearance since 2017)
• NEC – St. Francis Red Flash (1st appearance since 1991!!!)
• Horizon – Robert Morris Colonials (1st appearance since 2015)
• WCC – Gonzaga Bulldogs – the Zags would not let the Gaels sweep them and won the WCC Tourney.

Ken Pom Top 20

1. Duke – Impressive finish at UNC
2. Auburn – Fell off after clinching the SEC last week
3. Houston – On paper as good as it gets outside of Duke
4. Florida – This team has a real shot to get to San Antonio
5. Tennessee – I still don’t believe.
6. Alabama – Good win over Auburn, but that D.
7. Texas Tech – No one is talking about this team.
8. Michigan State – Sparty earned the Big Ten title.
9. Zags – Maybe they can make a run.
10. Iowa State – Cyclones are playing better now.
11. Kentucky – Some like them for a 2 Seed next week, but that’s too high for me.
12. Wisconsin – The Badgers had a tough week.
13. Maryland – Surging to the 2 Seed in the Big Ten – love them.
14. Purdue – Going the wrong direction.
15. St. Johns – Still red hot with win at Marquette.
16. Arizona – Loss at Kansas was telling to me.
17. Texas A&M – Nothing wrong with a little bump and grind.
18. Illinois – Showing flashes of excitement.
19. Clemson – Legit team.
20. Missouri – Can’t trust them.

Bubble Review per Joe Lunardi on ESPN

Last 4 Byes

• Utah State – The Aggies are going the wrong way – only decent win over Aztecs in past 6 games. 25-6 (15-5 MWC) will likely get them in the Dance, but they are a fade for me.
• Arkansas – Razorbacks just need to beat South Carolina on Wednesday to get in at 19-12 (8-10 SEC).
• Baylor – Another team riding on past season – 18-13 (10-10 B12) – I just can’t see it with the Bears. They should be First 4 Out. If K State knocks them off on Wednesday, see ya.
• San Diego State – I’m really confused by this, but Boise should beat them on Thursday in MWC Tourney – 21-8 (14-6 MWC). This is based on past experience not 2025 performance.

Last Four In

• Oklahoma – The Sooners are getting wins at the right time, 19-12 (6-12 SEC) – beat Texas head to head in Austin. Georgia is a tough pull for Wednesday, but a win would guarantee them a bid.
• Indiana – Monster win over Buckeyes on Sunday put them on the right side of the Bubble. They are playing for Woodson now that he is walking. 19-12 (10-10 B10) – Oregon win would solidify this bid or they will wait anxiously on Sunday.
• Xavier – Musketeers have played well down the stretch. I still like the MW teams below better, but 21-10 (13-7 BE) – a perceived better league gets them on this side. A loss against Marquette should not affect their status, but who knows.
• Ohio State – Blowing that game at Indiana could cost them. 17-14 (9-11 B10) – That is not a tournament team to me. I hope Iowa takes them out on Wednesday so there is no debate.

First Four Out

• Boise State – Broncos vs. Aztecs in MWC Tourney should end this debate – 22-9 (14-6 MWC). Good to see Lunardi bump them after CSU beat them at home, but why are the Rams not getting the love?
• UNC – Loss versus Duke really hurt. That’s why they are out. 20-12 (13-7 ACC) will need to go deep in ACC tourney – like Semis.
• Texas – Perfect case for a team that should not make the field, 17-14 (6-12 SEC). Please do not let them in. Vandy needs to end their bid chances on Wednesday.
• Colorado State – No respect for the Rams. 22-9 (16-4 MWC) 7 straight wins, and somehow Aztecs are in the field – ridiculous. If they win Quarter and then beat Utah State, can they be worthy?

Next Four Out

• Dayton – Win over VCU puts them on the map, but they need to win the A10 to get in.
• Wake Forest – This team is completely unworthy – 21-10 (13-7 ACC) in a watered down ACC. Not a chance.
• Nova – Come on they are not even close for me.
• UC Irvine – I am a big fan of this squad with their road record, but I still think they need to win Big West to get in.

Off the list for my consideration – UC San Diego – see UC Irvine – I think the Tritons still need to win the Big West to make the field. VCU – they are listed as an auto-qualifier, but if they do not get to the A10 Final, they will not make it.

Fighting For Seeding

1 Seeds – Duke, Auburn and Houston are locked as 1 Seeds, but Florida can get one if they get to the SEC Title Game.

2 Seeds – Michigan State, Texas Tech, Tennessee are essentially 2 Seeds, but Lunardi has Alabama as the 4th – St. Johns will move to 2 Seed if they win the Big East Tourney.

3 Seeds – St. Johns, Kentucky, Texas A&M and Iowa State – probably worth, but to me, Clemson could get here if they play Duke tough in the ACC Title game or if Maryland wins the Big Ten Title.

4 Seeds – Maryland, Wisconsin, Purdue and Clemson – Purdue and Wisconsin are not big on my list here. BYU is better than both of those teams. I can also see Louisville get here if they took out Clemson to get to the ACC Title Game.

Enjoy the fun. The real tournament starts in just a week.

Wegs