College Hoops: Bubble and Small Tourney Time

We are in full March bloom now. This weekend there will be the first set of tickets punched to the Big Dance. Let’s get ready. First the big boys.

Ken Pom Review

We will start this week with the Ken Pom Review. Why do we review this? Well, you can tell how well a team is playing independent of record. It really helps come the NCAA Tournament.

Here is the Top 20

1. Duke – they are great
2. Auburn – they got beat this week, but they already locked up the SEC title.
3. Houston – already won their 2nd straight Big 12 Title
4. Florida – This team is really good – deep and talented.
5. Tennessee – Got a buzzer beater over Alabama last weekend, but lost at Ole Miss.
6. Alabama – Tough week in the SEC with losses at Tennessee and home vs. Florida
7. Texas Tech – Under the radar with Houston being so good
8. Zags – Still a little confused, as they are not winning as many as past years
9. Michigan State – Sparty will already share the Big Ten title and can win outright with a win at Iowa.
10. Wisconsin – Badgers are solid, but I’m not that impressed.
11. Iowa State – They need to get healthy, but they can defend (7th).
12. Purdue – They faded a bit, but crushed this week from deep against Rutgers.
13. Maryland – I think they are the most dangerous Big Ten team in the Tournament.
14. Arizona – Will always confuse people with that talent.
15. Kentucky – Looking forward to getting out of the SEC in the Big Dance.
16. Missouri – I don’t trust them away from home, see Oklahoma win.
17. St. John’s – They are just good.
18. Clemson – This team is on a complete tear in the inferior ACC, but they can ball.
19. Illinois – Jekyll and Hyde season, but when they are hot, they are hot.
20. Texas A&M – Well, they beat Auburn, so they can do it, just not super consistent.

Bubble Review per Joe Lunardi on ESPN

Last 4 Byes

• Baylor – Somehow still in, but I don’t love it, 18-12, 10-9 in the Big 12 – are limping into the conference tournament.
• San Diego State – Mountain West will only get 4 teams in, so not sure this is right – they are 5th in the league, so this is a reputational pick – 20-8, 13-6 in MWC.
• Georgia – Agree here, they have big wins in the SEC, so last 4 Byes makes sense, 19-11, 7-10 in the SEC.
• Indiana – I am not with Lunardi here, but they have won 4 of 6

Last Four In

• Ohio State – Some big wins, but 17-13 and under .500 in the Big Ten – not for me
• Arkansas – The Hogs are closing strong at 18-12 and 7-10 in the SEC after starting 0-5.
• Nebraska – 17-13 and 7-12 in the Big Ten, this is ludicrous.
• Boise State – Boise plays CSU this weekend, so if they win, ok, but 22-8, 14-5 in conference.

First Four Out

• Oklahoma – If the SEC gets 14 teams in, then help us all – 18-12, 5-12 in the SEC, but just knocked off Missouri at home.
• Xavier – 19-10 and 11-7 in the Big East – I don’t agree at all, they are out (see Nova).
• North Carolina – Hubert Davis likes his late run – 20-11, 13-6 in conference with a date with Duke on Saturday.
• Texas – 17-13 and 6-11 in the SEC – I don’t love them, but they get wins when they need them most.

Next Four Out

• SMU – Down year for the ACC – 22-8 and 13-6 in the ACC and they can’t get in? That’s insane.
• Cincinnati – Better resume then others, but I can’t see it – 17-13, 7-12 in Big 12.
• Nova – 18-13 and 11-7 in a weak Big East – come on now.
• Wake Forest – Shouldn’t make the Dance, 20-10, 12-7 in conference – see CSU below.

Off the list for my consideration: Colorado State – 2nd in MWC (15-4, 21-9 overall); UC San Diego – they are the top team in the Big West, but they should make the dance regardless (26-4); Drake like UC San Diego is great, 27-3; VCU – another league leader in the A10, and if they lose the tourney will make the Dance at 25-5 and good metrics.

Small and Mid-Conference Tourney Week

1. Ohio Valley – Saturday, March 8 – 8 PM – 1st Ticket Punched – SE Missouri and SIU should get there.
2. Big South – Sunday, 3/9 – 11 AM – High Point is really good (26-5), but needs to win the tourney – Winthrop and UNC Asheville could upset them
3. ASun – Sunday, Sunday, 3/9 – 1 PM – Should be Lipscomb vs. North Alabama
4. Missouri Valley – Sunday, 3/9 – 1:10 PM – Drake is great (27-3), but could miss out if they lose to Bradley or Northern Iowa
5. Summit – Sunday, 3/9 – 8 PM – Omaha is top, but I always love the Jackrabbits of SD State (St. Thomas could also win the tourney and mess things up, as they are not eligible for the Big Dance)
6. Sun Belt – Monday, 3/10 – 6 PM – 4-5 teams can win this one – it should be wild
7. SoCon – Monday, 3/10 – 6 PM – Chattanooga should win this league
8. CAA – Tuesday, 3/11 – 6 PM – Towson should win, but UNC Wilmington and Charleston are always tough
9. NEC – Tuesday, 3/11 – 6 PM – Central CT (Blue Devils) are really good at 23-6, but watchout for the Sharks of LIU
10. Horizon – Tuesday, 3/11 – 6 PM – Robert Morris is the 1 Seed, but Cleveland State is legit
11. WCC – Tuesday, 3/11 – 8 PM – Can the Gaels win both the regular season and tourney?
12. Patriot – Wednesday, 3/12 – TBD – American and Bucknell are at the top, but Colgate has won the last few here.
13. Southland – Wednesday, 3/12 – 4 PM – McNeese went 19-1, but they could drop it to Lamar or Nicholls
14. Big Sky – Wednesday, 3/12 – 10:30 PM – Northern CO vs. Montana likely

Hopefully, you can get some viewing in, as the Big Dance starts in just 2 weeks. Selection Sunday is in 10 days.

Wegs