With a week hiatus after the Super Bowl, now it is time to turn attention to my favorite time of year. March Madness. The craziest 3 weeks in all of sports. So, over the next 3 weeks or so, it is time to prepare.

College Hoops Catch Up

It has been a fun season so far. If you haven’t been paying attention, there is no dominant team in 2025. There are a couple of favorites that should be in San Antonio on April 5th, but there are probably 12 teams that can win it this year unlike the last 2 years with UConn. I will reference both Kenpom.com, the Net Rankings and Title Futures (BetRivers) when reviewing the teams below.

Conferences and Teams

Southeastern Conference (SEC)

Over the past 4-5 years, the SEC has gotten more and more competitive. This year the SEC could have as many as 12 teams in the Big Dance. Most experts say the SEC is the best conference in America. Now, the only caveat I have on that claim is that once conference play starts the non-conference performance kind of biases that claim. So, for me, do I think the 12th best SEC team is better than all of the ACC? No, I do not. So, they have great teams, no doubt, but only the Tournament will tell us if the Strength of Schedule metric which dominates both Kenpom and the Net Ratings was valid.

Broome Is A Baller
  • Auburn (25-2, 2 KenPom, 1 Net, +340 Title) – Coach Bruce Pearl’s team is the best team in the SEC and the nation. Johni Broome is a potential Wooden Award Winner. It is hard to see this team not making it to San Antonio, but stranger things have happened.
  • Florida (24-3, 4 KenPom, 4 Net, +900 Title) – The Gators are having a great season. They are 3rd in the AP Poll, and unlike recent teams, this one is much better on Offense at 4th in KenPom. They should be a tough out and a Top 3 Seed.
  • Alabama (22-5, 6 KenPom, 6 Net, +1200 Title) – The Crimson Tide were in the Final Four last year, and despite losing some talent, they are still shooting the lights out every night (3rd in O on KenPom). They did recently drop some games in the SEC, but that is going to happen. I’m just concerned about that 46th Defensive ranking in KenPom come March.
  • Tennessee (22-5, 5 KenPom, 5 Net, +1800 Title) – The Vols were an Elite Eight team in 2024, but they do not have the likes of Dalton Knecht this year to get a tough bucket late in the game (30th on O).
  • Missouri (20-7, 14 KenPom, 15 Net, +4000 Title) – The Tigers are incredible at home (17-1) which worries me in the Tournament. However, they should be a good team in the early rounds.
  • Kentucky (18-9, 16 KenPom, 12 Net, +4000 Title) – Only 7-7 in the SEC, but the Wildcats have not disappointed under new Coach Mark Pope. They score a lot (5th in KP), but the D sometimes is not there (61st KP).
  • Texas A&M (20-7, 20 KenPom, 17 Net, +4000 Title) – The Aggies have hit a bit of a skid of late, but they are still faring well in the SEC. They are a tougher bunch, and bring most of their effort on the defensive end (6th KP). They certainly fit the profile of a deep conference success story in March.
  • Bubble Teams: Ole Miss (22nd KP), Miss State (29 KP), Vandy (44 KP), Texas (41 KP), Arkansas (36 KP – Coach Cal’s new home) and Oklahoma (49 in KP) – all have a chance to make the field. Ole Miss and Miss State are basically locks, but the other 4 still need to get work done.

Big 12

The Big 12 has lost some squads in realignment, but in basketball, they are just as competitive in 2025.

Can Cryer Lift the Cougs?
  • Houston (23-4, 3 KenPom, 3 Net, +850 Title) – The Cougars are back at the top of KenPom. Coach Kelvin Sampson’s team is really good again. They have gotten close, and they have LJ Cryer to score when it matters, so maybe they can avoid a drought like in other big games. Not sure they can win it, but they continue to dominate the Big 12.
  • Texas Tech (21-6, 7 KenPom, 7 Net, +4000 Title) – The Red Raiders are tough again. They will be a great defensive team, but this team can score at 10th in KP. I like their chances.
  • Iowa State (21-6, 8 KenPom, 8 Net, +1800 Title) – You’ll notice their Title Odds are better than Tech’s because despite the 6 losses, they have top scorers still injured. At full strength, this team led Auburn by 18 in a game earlier this year – only to blow the lead. So, there is a sentiment that this team has the ceiling to win the title. Monitor those injuries.
  • Arizona (18-9, 12 KenPom, 9 Net, +3500 Title) – Another talented team for Tommy Lloyd, but can they win the tough game? They lost a tough one against BYU the other night, and in the big games against HOU, they didn’t get it done.
  • Kansas (18-9, 21 KenPom, 20 Net, +6000 Title) – The pre-season #1 team has fallen on tough times. They are not the same Jayhawks team from even a couple years ago. They will make the Tournament and maybe will get to the second weekend surprisingly, but they could also lose Round 1.
  • BYU (19-8, 27 KenPom, 29 Net, +15000 Title) – Not a Title contender, but this team is playing great under new Coach Kevin Young, in his first head coaching stint. His squad believes in him and playing well – winning 4 straight.
  • Bubble Team: Baylor (30 KP)

Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)

A down year for the ACC, and even though there are a few great teams, it may be a record low turnout in March.

Flagg Is Likely Wooden Winner
  • Duke (24-3, 1 KenPom, 2 Net, +375 Title) – Duke is the 2nd best team out there, and most would say they are #1 but they do not play in a tough conference. Super Frosh Cooper Flagg is the favorite for the Wooden Award and likely the #1 Pick in the NBA Draft. Can this Duke team get over the hump for Coach Jon Scheyer? Not sure, but they should make San Antonio.
  • Clemson (22-5, 19 KenPom, 22 Net, +7500 Title) – The Tigers had a deep run in 2024, and this team is really about as good. In fact, metrically, they are a lot better with both metrics under 25 – that championship formula. I’m curious to see how they play against Duke in the ACC Tourney after beating them at home earlier this season.
  • Louisville (21-6, 23 KenPom, 24 Net, +10000 Title) – One of my favorite teams this year, as they have a new coach in Pat Kelsey who has turned around the Cardinals quickly. They have a lot of OG players from other teams like Chucky Hepburn (from Wisconsin) – that is why I like them in March.
  • Bubble Teams: UNC (39 KP), SMU (40 KP) and Wake Forest (69 KP – long shot) – The Heels are trying to turn their season around with some wins, but they still need a deep ACC Tourney run to get in.

Big Ten

The Big Ten is not as deep as the SEC, but there are very competitive teams that can make a deep run. I do not think there is a National Champion in the group, but a Final Four is possible.

Can Izzo Do It Again?
  • Wisconsin (21-6, 9 KenPom, 13 Net, +3000 Title) – The Badgers have been a pleasant surprise on the season. This is the first Badger team that actually scores the ball at a high clip in years – 9th in KP. However, do they have enough juice to get to San Antonio?
  • Michigan State (22-5, 10 KenPom, 14 Net, +3500 Title) – Sparty is back, and Coach Izzo has a squad again. To win the title, you have to be in the Top 25 in both Offense and Defense, and Sparty meets that criteria. They started off undefeated for months in the Big Ten, but recently have cooled. Come March, Izzo should have the squad ready to battle.
  • Purdue (19-9, 17 KenPom, 19 Net, +5000 Title) – The Boilers were just short last year in the Title Game, but this team is good just not that good. After losing 4 straight in the Big Ten, let’s see if they can put it back together to make another run.
  • Michigan (20-6, 24 KenPom, 21 Net, +5000 Title) – New Head Coach Dusty Maye from FAU has lit the league on fire. Still, early success does not mean a lot if you can’t get to the Sweet 16. A lot of his players came with him including C Vlad Goldin, but I’m not sure they can win in March.
  • Illinois (17-11, 25 KenPom, 23 Net, +10000 Title) – The Illini were a threat to get to San Antonio early in the year, but there is something missing with this team. Injuries and lack of cohesion in big moments have hurt Illinois in 2025. I would say they could shock people in March, but they are not on a good trend.
  • UCLA (20-8, 26 KenPom, 25 Net, +7500 Title) – Coach Mick Cronin’s team struggled early, but like most of his teams, they are rounding into form just in time for March. I like this team to be a Sleeper.
  • Bubble Teams: Oregon (34 KP), Ohio State (33 KP), Nebraska (47 KP) – All teams that can make the tournament.

Big East

The Big East is not as strong or deep as a couple years ago, but you have to like one team here.

The Godfather Is Back in NY
  • St. Johns (24-4, 13 KenPom, 18 Net, +3000 Title) – The Johnnies are a team to be reckoned with as Coach Rick Pitino has the boys playing great – 2nd on D – after the sweep of UConn on Saturday, the East is nearly won. I love this team.
  • Marquette (20-7 28 KenPom, 27 Net, +7500 Title) – The Golden Eagles started the league on fire, but they have cooled off down the stretch. They will be tough in the Dance, but not enough to get to San Antonio.
  • Creighton (19-8, 32 KenPom, 35 Net, +10000 Title) – The Bluejays are not quite what they have been in back to back years. The O is not good enough like in past years, but they have experience.
  • UConn (18-9, 38 KenPom, 37 Net, +7500 Title) – The Huskies do not have the NBA talent of the back to back titles, so they will not go deep.

Other Teams to Watch

Drake Is At It Again
  • St. Marys (25-4, 18 KenPom, 16 Net, +10000 Title) – The Gaels are the best team in the WCC for the first time in recent memory. They even swept the Zags, so maybe they can finally make a Final Four run. The odds are right for such a highly rated team, metrically.
  • Zags (21-8, 11 KenPom, 10 Net, +5000 Title) – The Metrics are deceiving here. The Zags have lost more games in the WCC this year then their previous 3 years (4). So, I’m not sure I get the ratings. Coach Few is a great coach, but they could get upset early.
  • Utah State (24-4, 42 KenPom, 33 Net, +25000 Title) – The Aggies are the best of the Mountain West,a and that zone will give teams fits in March. They can win games in March.
  • New Mexico (22-5, 37 KenPom, 42 Net, +20000 Title) – The Lobos are making a late run in the MWC to test the Aggies, but regardless, they will make the Dance.
  • VCU (22-5, 31 KenPom, 31 Net, +25000 Title) – The Rams should win the A10, but can grab an At-Large bid, if they do not win the conference tourney.
  • Memphis (22-5, 46 KenPom, 47 Net, +15000 Title) – Coach Hardaway’s team is really good when they play focused, but can they turn it back on against tougher competition than the AAC?
  • UC San Diego (24-4, 35 KenPom, 36 Net) – Not a title contender, but you have to love the teams that played great in their league to win a game or two in March.
  • Drake (25-3, 59 KenPom, 58 Net) – They will have to win the Missouri Valley Tournament, but the Bulldogs have a history of upsets in March. They have only lost 3 games, which has to mean something.

Next Week, I’ll do a KenPom and Net Review along with a Bubble Watch and 5 big games to watch.

March is almost here.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.

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