NFL Playoffs: Super Bowl Preview

It went by so fast, but here we are just one day from the big game. I’ll dig into the matchup and the props I like for your betting pleasure.

The Teams

Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) – The AFC Champion is a familiar team to many. This is their 3rd straight trip to the Super Bowl in a row, and their 5th time in the last 6 years. Win or lose, the Chiefs are in full dynasty mode with HC Andy Reid at the helm, this team has been relevant for over a decade. The addition of QB Patrick Mahomes made the team a Super Bowl contender every single season. It is well documented that the Chiefs with Mahomes under center have lost exactly 3 games in the playoffs since he became the starter: his first trip to the AFC Title Game losing to Brady and NE in OT; then a loss to Brady again in the Super Bowl but this time in Tampa; and finally a loss at home in the AFC Title Game at the hands of Joe Burrow and the Bengals. That last loss was 3 seasons ago. Since, the Chiefs have morphed into a defensive minded team with a great QB. That is the winning formula that has allowed them to win every one score game since late last season. DC Steve Spagnuolo really deserves as much credit as Reid in this run. His style of press coverage on the outside with a blend of unique blitzes at the right time has proven unbeatable. The Chiefs are susceptible to the run, however, as they have given up 147 and 149 yards per game in back to back games. Still, you will have to limit Mahomes and his limited weapons in the Red Zone, where they have been 6 of 11 trips with minimal turnovers. The guys outside of Travis Kelce and Mahomes that need to play well are the WRs – Rookie Xavier Worthy (who broke out against BUF), JuJu Smith-Schuster and Hollywood Brown.

Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) – The NFC Champions has been here before, too. Just 2 years ago, they were the favorite against these Chiefs in Phoenix. HC Nick Sirianni was on the hot seat after their collapse in the 2023 season, and give him credit that is hires of 2 new coordinators in OC Kellen Moore and DC Vic Fangio really boosted results. Now, it did help this year that the Eagles landed RB Saquon Barkley who had a historic season for the franchise and nearly broke the single season rushing record. Barkley has been completely dominant in their long win streak and in the playoffs. The O-Line left the NFC Title Game a bit banged up a Center, but after 2 weeks off, they should be good to go. On D, the youth movement upfront has lead the way with DT Jalen Carter destroying opponents. Added pass rushers like Nolan Smith along with Rookie CBs – Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper Dejean have led to the best defense in the NFL. The front 4 should have an advantage in this game over the KC line. Outside of Barkley, QB Jalen Hurts has great weapons in WRs AJ Brown and Davonte Smith to go with TE Dallas Goedert. So, no shortage of weapons.

The Key Matchups

Matchup 1 – KC D-Line vs. PHI O-Line – Can the Chiefs slow down Saquon? Defenses have only limited him to under 100 yards in 2 of his last 14 games (PIT and at DAL – in a blow out). So, he will get yards, but how many? The KC line has to make it tough and not allow huge runs that he has gotten in virtually every game. Will Spags run blitz in early downs to try to limit him? I would think so, but that open the game up for the big play. Also, the KC line needs to get pressure on Hurts when his is in obvious passing situations. Hurts tends to hold the ball too long, which can lead to sacks and throw aways. I think the PHI O Line is the best in football and will eventually wear down the KC front.

Matchup 2 – PHI D-Line vs. KC O-Line – Can the Chiefs hold up against the PHI Front 4? I’ll tell you this has to be the emphasis for the Chiefs. They have to find a way to get PHI to blitz to get that back end out of sorts. That means they need to handle Carter and Smith. The Chiefs have been subpar running the ball in recent weeks, but one way or another, they need to find running plays to keep the pass rush at bay. I think Reid will give relief to the line with some quicker plays like jet sweeps and maybe even a wildcat like play to try to get the Eagles to guess. I still think the PHI D Line should dominate this game.

Matchup 3 – Kelce vs PHI LBs – This matchup goes to Kelce. PHI struggles in coverage of the tight end. Ertz had like 75 receptions last week, which may have been the game plan. However, Kelce is much better after the catch than Ertz. PHI LBs will need to stay disciplined and get Mahomes to look elsewhere or no matter how good the D-Line is for the Eagles, Kelce can get critical 3rd down conversions.

Matchup 4 – AJ Brown vs. KC CBs – I actually fully expect Spags to double Brown in this game. However, if he chooses to go press coverage with CB McDuffie on Brown, then Hurts will have chances for shots deep. Again, I think Spags will try to dictate what the Eagles do. Tight run fits for Saquon including early down blitzes with single coverage on Brown, Smith or Goedert – that leaves the chance for play action plays early. In later downs, it will be doubling Brown and an exotic CB or S blitz which leaves Smith or Goedert 1 on 1. This will be a matchup that is a toss up for me.

Matchup 5 – Sirianni vs. Reid – Eagles fans need to hope it will not come down to a late game decision, as Reid will have the advantage here. Even in the win over WAS, I questioned Sirianni’s decision to kick that long FG in the 2nd Quarter that led to WAS points. He can’t make mistakes like that in this one. Reid may get cute at times in the red zone, but when it comes to time management and situational football – Reid is the top choice.

Side and Total

Chiefs opened as a -1.5 favorite up to -2, but the line is moving back towards PHI. Most places have it at -1.5 with light vig or -1. Some casinos like Circa have taken big bets on the Eagles and moved to a Pick ‘Em yesterday. To me, the Eagles are the right side in this game. I took it at +1.5, and I expect most books will move to -1 or Pick come game time. It is hard to bet against Mahomes for sure. He is great in the big game. I just think the Eagles are a better team by a lot. It really boils down to can the Chiefs stop the run and get a TO or two. Then, it will be the tight game we expect. PHI is much more capable of controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Some would argue that just take the PHI ML at -102 (was plus money on open), but getting a point or point and a half is always wise with OT rules and 2 point conversions.

The Total opened at 49 went up to 49.5 but has consistently come down to 48.5 in most shops. Novice bettors will bet the Over in this game. So, if you like the Over, bet it now. I expect the Total to tick up to 49/49.5 gain, which is a key number. I do like the Under in this game, so I’ll wait for the late movement.

A good strategy for this game is to tease the game if you are an Eagles backer, as well. Teasing the spread to +7 or +7.5 along with the total 6 points either way makes a lot of sense.

I have PHI to win 27-20.

Favorite Props

The Super Bowl literally has thousands of bets you can get in on. Hopefully, gambling is just for fun for you, but you will not make a lot of money parlaying props. It is a hard business and the casino wants your easy money. Index props are a loser – an Index prop is when there are multiple outcomes to the bet. For example the 1st TD Prop or Range Score prop (Eagles to win 1-6). The MVP prop falls into this category, but that outcome is a little clearer (see below).

In this game, I like 4 main props:

• Mahomes Rushing Over – his number is up to 28.5 (which is high and will get higher), but he has been their best runner. He will scramble for at least one 1st down. I also like his longest rushing prop of 12.5 Over.
• Goedert Receiving Over – his number is around 51.5 – I like him to be the outlet for Hurts, and KC has not been good against TEs. I like his receptions over 4.5, too. I will be laddering his yards as high as I can.
• Saquon Barkley Receiving Over – Barkley has been a bellcow running the ball, but he is good in the pass game, too. His prop is low at 12.5 total, 1.5 receptions with longest at 9.5 – all achievable on one play. I’ll be laddering him up, too.
• 2 Point Conversions – I like both teams’ numbers here – PHI +450 and KC +550 – they need a successful one in the game.

Of course, have fun with the props. I’ll do crazier ones like the Octopus prop (same player to score a TD and 2 point conversion on same possession – +1200, and I’ll do some TD props either multiple TDs or last TD props. I’ll also bet Saquon MVP at +250 (even though I’m still holding that Eagles +625 ticket) – Mahomes is the favorite at +120, Hurts +350. If you want a long shot, then I would go Jalen Carter +10000 (I’ll put $5 on that).

There you go. Enjoy the game. Should be a great one.

Wegs