What a weekend! The NFL continues to be nothing if not unpredictable.
Divisional Round Recap
- Chiefs Get Past Texans – What can be said, the Chiefs are a tough team to beat at home. Even tougher, when they get the benefit of every penalty. Yes, the 4th Quarter was dominated by KC, but for 3 quarters, the Texans were the better team and some critical calls allowed KC to get points and lead 13-12. I can get past ridiculous protection of Patrick Mahomes if they were to protect other stars in other games – see Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff this weekend. In the end, the Chiefs will host the AFC Championship again after a one year hiatus with the 23-14 win (7th AFC Championship Game in a row!!!). HOU finished a slightly disappointing season, but I loved the way they played on Saturday. They will be back.
- Commanders Stun Lions – I apologize for not believing WAS could actually win this game. QB Jayden Daniels and the Commanders are a team that believes in themselves. DET was not ready for that Offense, and the WAS D balled out with 5 Turnovers forced in the game. So, despite giving up 521 yards, WAS was able to make every big play and won fairly easily, 45-31. The Commanders have not been in the NFC Championship Game since 1991 (previously longest drought – now held by DAL).
- Eagles Run Past Rams – Well, if you have a chance at beating the Eagles, then you need to do one thing – stop Saquon Barkley – who as an aside, I couldn’t be happier for him as he is winning playoff games now – Barkley ripped off TD runs of 62 and 78 yards finishing with 205 yards rushing. Eagles need to fix their XP game with Jake Elliott…. Still, the Rams down 2 scores got a TD with 2:48 left, and forced a punt to have one last chance to win the game trailing by 6 points. DT Jalen Carter made back to back huge plays as the Rams were in the Red Zone with a sack on 3rd down then a QB pressure on 4th down to force an incompletion. Eagles go back to the NFC Title Game with a 28-22 win.
- Bills Outlast Ravens – The expected best game of the weekend delivered. The snow was on the field and falling, and footing wasn’t great. However, both teams were able to move the ball. Yet, a couple of bad turnovers by Lamar Jackson led to points for Bills. BUF led 21-10 at the half. The Ravens cut the lead to 2, down 21-19, and they went for 2 – No Good at the end of the 3rd Quarter. BUF tacked on 2 FGs in the 4th Quarter – one after a BAL fumble by TE Mark Andrews. So, down 8 with 3:30 left, the Ravens drove the field – Lamar hit TE Isaiah Likely from 24 yards out for a TD. Then, on the 2 point try, Andrews dropped the pass that hit him right in his lap. The Ravens did not get the onside kick, and BUF finally breaks through with the 27-25 win to get to their first AFC Championship Game with Josh Allen at the helm.
Predictions: Well, it is just not my year in the playoffs – S/U 2-2, ATS 0-3-1 (Ouch), Totals 2-2. Interesting stat that the winning teams through 3 rounds are +18 Turnover Margin – makes sense.
Championship Sunday
- Commanders at Eagles (-5.5, 48 Total) – Sunday, 1/26 at 2 PM Central on FOX – This will be a third matchup up here with these NFC East foes squaring off. No one has had an answer for Jayden Daniels and this aggressive offense all year, but also true that Saquon Barkley has been unstoppable for PHI. I do think that PHI has the benefit of seeing Daniels twice already. The Eagles are certainly the better team, especially on Defense. However, WAS does have better metrics on Offense. So, can the Commanders stop the run and make Jalen Hurts throw the ball? Hurts has not eclipsed 132 yards in the first 2 playoff games. You have to believe they will do everything they can do to make Hurts beat them with his arm not his legs. I will be rooting for the Commanders, and I will bet them on the Moneyline with my PHI SB Future of +625. However, as far as predictions will go, PHI wins, WAS +5.5, Total Under 47.5 (I know stubborn).
- Bills at Chiefs (-1.5, 48.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/26 at 5:30 PM Central on CBS – This game is not just a rematch from the regular season (where BUF won), but it is now their 4th meeting in the playoffs where KC is 3-0 in the Mahomes-Allen era. The Bills have not reached the SB since the Jim Kelly/K-Gun era of the 1990s. So, can Josh Allen and the Bills finally beat their bogeyman in Patrick Mahomes in Arrowhead? I think they can. Of course, they will have the ghost of the comeback from a couple years ago in their heads. However, there are a lot of new faces on this team, so they can get past that meltdown. Still, the Bills D is not great. They will give up points. BAL amassed over 400 yards, but KC has not been great on O. I do think Mahomes will move the ball, and Andy Reid got past the tough HOU D – so the Offense will be a lot more free flowing on Sunday. The key matchup is BUF O vs. KC D. They ran the ball well in the regular season, and I expect the same here. You have to run the ball on the Chiefs and control time of possession to win. I know it is crazy to say the wrong team is favored here, but it is true. BUF is better on paper. Full disclosure, my position on the game is this – I have a BUF SB Future at +600, so I will bet the KC ML as a hedge. However, my official prediction is BUF wins, BUF +1.5 (Opened KC -2), Total Over 48.5 (opened 47.5 – so grab it earlier rather than later). It will be a great game to watch regardless.
Only 2 Sundays left to watch football, so enjoy it while you can.
Wegs