The playoffs give us what we want – a live or die scenario for our favorite teams. However, it took us a few games to get some competitive matchups.
Wild Card Recap
- Texans Woke Up – After a sluggish start and some early TOs, HOU turned the game around after a key play at 3rd and 16 from their own 17 yard line with 2:24 left in the 1st half, QB CJ Stroud made a play to complete a 34 yard pass to Hutchinson after fumbling the snap. That play ignited the HOU O that would outscore the Chargers 32-6 from that point on. Justin Herbert was not great with 4 INTs (he only had 3 in the regular season), and the Chargers were exposed to only have 1 legitimate target for him to throw to in the 32-12 loss.
- Ravens Trampled Steelers – It started early and happened often, as Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry led the Ravens to 299 yards rushing on the day. Th Steelers tried to get back in it in the 2nd half, but they came up short in BAL’s 28-14 win.
- Bills Control The Clock – Well DEN did lead, 7-0 after a Bo Nix bomb to Franklin, but after that BUF had the ball for 41:43 and ran 72 plays to DEN’s 42. RB James Cook was great with 120 yards rushing and 1 TD, and Josh Allen was in complete control in the 31-7 win.
- Eagles Win Ugly – Not the prettiest game in PHI on Sunday, but the Eagles sent a message early in forcing an opening kickoff fumble leading to a TD. Green Bay took a long time to get competitive after trailing 16-3. RB Josh Jacobs ripped off a run that set up a short TD to cut the game to 16-10 to start the 4th Quarter, but the injuries mounted throughout the game. Philly won, despite Jalen Hurts only throwing for 131 yards, 2 TDs, but Saquon Barkley did run for 119 yards for the 22-10 win.
- Commanders Upset Bucs – We all know by now that QB Jayden Daniels is legit. All game long, Daniels made the right play whether it was a scramble, designed run or hitting his favorite target WR Terry McLaurin in a critical moment. WAS did not punt in the game. TB was game, and Baker Mayfield was hitting Mike Evans early, but a switch defensively slowed him down. Then, in a critical moment, Baker fumbled the ball in an exchange setting up the WAS go ahead TD. After TB tied the game, Daniels set up a short FG attempt as time expired, which K Zane Gonzalez after fixing his hair 10 times, hit the upright, but it went through for the Commanders’ win, 23-20. Daniels becomes the first rookie QB to win his first playoff start on the road since Russell Wilson did it at WAS 12 years ago.
- Rams Take Advantage of Vikings – Good for the Rams to play through adversity with the fires, and the D played great with 9 sacks plus a scoop and score that really put the game out of reach early. Sam Darnold continued to play poorly under pressure holding the ball too long leading to the fumble, an INT and all those sacks which will cost him millions on the open market. Rams go to PHI with the 27-9 win.
Predictions: Not a great week, but S/U 3-3; ATS 2-4; Totals 2-4 – Besides WAS, Home Teams were 5-1 S/U, 5-1 ATS, Totals 5-1 Under (keep that in mind next year in the Wild Card Round).
Divisional Round Matchups
- Texans at Chiefs (-8.5, 41.5 Total) – Saturday, 1/18 at 3:30 PM Central on ABC/ESPN – The Champs take on the Texans, and as much as I was happy to see CJ Stroud and company play better, the Chiefs will take apart this team. I’m not in love with the spread of -8.5, as the number I have is more like -4.5. So, KC wins, HOU +8.5, Total Under 41.5.
- Commanders at Lions (-9.5, 55.5 Total) – Saturday, 1/18 at 7 PM Central on FOX – Should be a fun game to watch. I think if you have read my posts before, I love Jayden Daniels. He played like a veteran at TB. He will play well again in DET, as their D is not great. However, DET will likely not punt in this game. The O-Line should be able to control the Commanders’ front. I think DET may play keep away from Daniels, even though that may be the WAS strategy to do to DET – they cannot do it. I think 9.5 is a big number, but DET definitely wins this game, DET -9.5, Total maybe a touch high, so Under 55.5.
- LAR at Eagles (-6, 44 Total) – Sunday, 1/19 at 2 PM Central on FOX – The Eagles looked vulnerable against GB who turned the ball over a lot. I still think the Eagles D can win this game alone. The Rams did play inspired football in AZ over MIN. I just can’t see the Rams going to PHI winning this game. I can see them covering a big number, though. Stafford is a veteran and should not fold under pressure, but the PHI D will get to him eventually and the Philly O Line should move the ball on the Rams D. I have to trust my rating on the Rams despite the big performance on Monday night. If PHI plays their A game, this one won’t be close. I’ll die on that hill against the Rams this year. PHI wins, PHI -6, Total Under 44.
- Ravens at Bills (+1, 51.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/19 at 5:30 PM Central on CBS/Paramount+ – The game of the weekend, and maybe the playoffs. The 2 MVP candidates face off here, and even though it is a regular season award, maybe the voters can be swayed a bit in this matchup. The Bills are not as soft as they have been in past years on the O-Line, so they may be able to keep up with the Nitrous powered Offense by the Ravens. However, I cannot see BUF’s D slowing down that Offense. The Bills are built to rush the passer not stop the run. Lamar Jackson has not performed well in these situations, but he has a dude with him in the backfield in Derrick Henry. I actually think BAL will beat up the Bills in this one. BUF opened the favorite, and now the correct team is favored in BAL. I want a good game, but BAL is on a mission. BAL wins, Covers -1, Total Over 51.5.
Should be some fun games, especially on Sunday.
Wegs