NFL Playoffs: Playoff Predictions and Super Wild Card Weekend

Here we are 18 Weeks later with only 14 teams fighting for the Lombardi Trophy. It has been a surprising season so far, but will the final result be as predicted. Not my best year predicting team records preseason, but game by game 59.56% – that’s a career best. Let’s get into the real season.

Playoff Teams, Index and Predictions

The Teams

AFC

• 1 Seed – Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) – They have the best player in the league. They are the 2 time defending champs, and the AFC again runs through Arrowhead. Can anyone beat them there?
• 2 Seed – Buffalo Bills (13-4) – Josh Allen is mostly likely going to be the MVP, but can he bring his game to the next level and get to the Super Bowl? That D fell off in the 2nd half, so not sure they can, but most people want to see it.
• 3 Seed – Baltimore Ravens (12-5) – The Ravens closed the season really strong, and Lamar Jackson probably deserves another MVP. The D has improved in the 2nd half, so they seem primed to make a run.
• 4 Seed – Houston Texans (11-6) – The Texans really had some promise this season, but injuries to Tank Dell and far from consistent running attack hurt their chances, not sure they have the juice to do anything. They will get the home game at least.
• 5 Seed – Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) – HC Jim Harbaugh has pushed the Chargers to their most successful season in years. QB Justin Herbert can make every throw, and the D was good. Can they actually win a road playoff game this year?
• 6 Seed – Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) – The Steelers closed the season running a tough gauntlet of teams. They gave a great D, but the O has been sputtering. Tough matchup in the Wild Card Weekend.
• 7 Seed – Denver Broncos (10-7) – The Broncos qualified for the first time since 2015. They did what they came to do, but not sure they will be game to win in BUF.

NFC

• 1 Seed – Detroit Lions (15-2) – The Lions despite half of the D hurt still ran their way to the 1 Seed with the win over MIN. Maybe they can win with blitzing and pure offense.
• 2 Seed – Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) – The Eagles besides the back step at WAS were unbeatable for 2.5 months. Jalen Hurts’ health will be key to their success.
• 3 Seed – Tampa Bay Bucs (10-7) – Tampa is one of those teams that has been playing for their playoff lives for weeks. They are dangerous with that offense and the D is unconventional. Could be a dark horse.
• 4 Seed – Los Angeles Rams (10-7) – The Rams won the NFC West, so they host a playoff game. Can they defy their metrics and make a run?
• 5 Seed – Minnesota Vikings (14-3) – The Vikings got punked in the showdown in DET for the 1 Seed. Clearly a letdown could come at LA, but they have what it takes to make a deep run.
• 6 Seed – Washington Commanders (12-5) – The Commies were a huge surprise this year. They will play a seasoned squad in TB, so they will need to jump up in competition immediately.
• 7 Seed – Green Bay Packers (11-6) – A disappointing end to their season puts them on the road at the tough Eagles. Their A Game is as good as anyone in the NFL, but not sure they can bring it.

Wegs Playoff Index

The Wegs Index originated in the playoffs. I created it to help with a pool at work about 10 years ago and then charted past years to check validity. On a game by game basis, the Index has been 68% or better. So, that means on a straight winner, the team with the lower number wins. The Index itself uses the same metrics as during the regular season – Yards Gained/Game, Points/Game, Yards Against/Game, Points Against/Game, Point Differential and Turnover Margin based on the 14 teams that made the playoffs. So, lowest rank would be 14 and highest 1. Teams that have traditionally defied the Index were the 2011 Giants and 2012 Ravens, in terms of the Super Bowl Champ. Those 2 teams were outside of the Top 8 teams. The Chiefs have also not been the top team in the Index in a couple of seasons, but as you’ll see, this year, they would need to defy the historical trend of the Index. Take it for what it is worth, but I use it both week by week and to create the predictions below.

Playoff Predictions

Wild Card Weekend

• 2 Bills over 7 Broncos – The Bills should win here, but see below the betting suggestions. Much closer in the Index than you may expect (3rd closest matchup).
• 3 Ravens over 6 Steelers – I know the Steelers play the Ravens tough, but the Ravens are at a different level over this Steelers team, see the differential in the Index – mostly on Offense.
• 5 Chargers over 4 Texans – The Chargers are playing their best. They just need to avoid any meltdowns like at JAC a couple years ago. They are much better on paper than HOU, but can you trust them?

• 2 Eagles over 7 Packers – It is hard for me to quit the Pack as my pre-season favorite, but they drew the toughest first game in either conference. If Jalen Hurts does not play, then this prediction becomes way different for this entire bracket. On paper, these are the 2 best teams in the Index (2nd closest matchup per the Index), but we have seen the Pack wilt against the better teams this year. That Bears’ FG pretty much killed their chances to win the Super Bowl. However, if they are able to win this game if PHI sits Hurts, then they are dangerous.
• 3 Bucs over 6 Commanders – This should be a fun game to watch. They played in Week 1, but it has been a long time since then. This is the closest matchup per the Index. What sticks out is the TB -5 TO Differential, which is the worst by 6. WAS was next with +1. So, the rookie on the road in their first playoff game angle will be a thing, but I believe Daniels can make this game interesting.
• 5 Vikings over 4 Rams – A complete battle. I think the Vikes will bounce back to play a good game at the Rams. Still should be a great game.

Divisional Round

• 1 Chiefs over 5 Chargers – This one should be a close game, but Herbert and crew are not ready to dethrone the Chiefs. The Index has the Chargers winning this game, but KC was sleepwalking until the final few weeks. So, I’ll defy the Index here.
• 3 Ravens over 2 Bills – A battle of MVPs here – should be a fun one to see, but I trust the Ravens D more than BUF’s and the Index agrees.

• 1 Lions over 5 Vikings – The Lions seem to have the Vikings number. Despite that rotten D in DET, they seem to play well enough to allow the Offense to make it happen.
• 2 Eagles over 3 Bucs – Styles make fights, and this one should be a conflict of styles. Eagles should be able to outmuscle the Bucs. I think the TOs will come to bear in this one, plus PHI has revenge on their mind from an early season loss.

AFC Championship

• 3 Ravens over 1 Chiefs – I’m being stubborn that the Chiefs will not repeat, and I have to trust the Ravens’ improvement on D. You do not make a lot of money betting against Mahomes in the playoffs – in the Mahomes era – the Chiefs have lost to NE in the AFC Title Game in OT (Brady at QB), the Bengals in the AFC Title Game in OT (Burrow at QB) and the Bucs in the Super Bowl (Brady at QB). So, this pick defies that logic completely.

NFC Championship

• 2 Eagles over 1 Lions – I really can’t wait for this game. Best Scoring Offense against the Best Defense by Yards. The Eagles D is the best unit on the field, so it should be the difference maker. Obviously, if Hurts is still in the concussion protocol, then they can’t beat DET. However, I’m trusting he will be better by this game.

Super Bowl

• Eagles over Ravens – A rematch of the Week 13 game where the Eagles just big boyed the Ravens. Jon Harbaugh is a better coach than Nick Sirianni, but the Eagles’ D will be able to limit Lamar enough to get the win. In the end, it is rare that the top team in the Index wins the Super Bowl (see SF last year), but if Mahomes does not make the big game, then the best team should win this time.

Wild Card Lines and Totals

• Chargers at Texans (+3, 42.5 Total) – Saturday, 1/11 at 3:30 PM Central on CBS/Paramount – The Chargers are rolling into HOU, so they should be favored. However, should we simply fade the home team? Not sure. The Texans best unit is their D, and if they can pressure Herbert, they will keep it close. The books will need HOU, which scares me. I just think LAC will win and hopefully, I’ll find a -2.5 not a -3, but I’ll say they cover the -3. Total Under 42.5.
• Steelers at Ravens (-10, 43.5 Total) – Saturday, 1/11 at 7 PM Central on Amazon – I do not see the Steelers winning this game, but HC Mike Tomlin is a good coach. He’s great as an underdog. The Steelers are also trying to win their first playoff game since 2016. So, I like BAL to win, but PIT to Cover +10. Total is Under 43.5.
• Broncos at Bills (-9, 47 Total) – Sunday, 1/12 at Noon Central on CBS/Paramount – Yep, the Broncos earned their way in, but the Bills dodged a bullet by not playing the Bengals. The Bills should win this game, so if Bo Nix can protect the ball as a rookie making his first start on the road in the playoffs, this game will be a lot closer than -9. BUF’s D is just not as good as earlier this year. DEN already plays in the elements, so they should be really good in this game. The Broncos are definitely primed to upset the Bills here, but I’ll pick BUF to win, DEN +9, Total Over 47.
• Packers at Eagles (-4.5, 45.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/12 at 3:30 PM Central on FOX – A rematch of the Week 1 game in Brazil pits two good teams against each other. I will be monitoring Jalen Hurts’ injury status. If he is healthy, then I do not see them losing this game. The Pack can make plays, and the D has been good. However, the Eagles can run the ball on GB, and that will control the clock and put pressure on the Pack’s O. So, PHI wins, Covers -4.5, Total Under 45.5.
• Commanders at Bucs (-3, 50.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/12 at 7 PM Central on NBC – Another Week 1 rematch, which was surprisingly low scoring and future OROY Jayden Daniels was mostly contained. He will play well in prime time, but the Bucs are playing really well. I think the line is right here, so, there is not a ton of value. I would go with the Bucs to win, WAS +3, Total Over 50.5. If I were to pick an upset, then I would pick WAS in this round.
• Vikings at Rams (+1.5, 47 Total) – Monday, 1/13 at 7 PM Central on ESPN – Here we go. Back to back big games for the Vikings in Prime Time. QB Sam Darnold was not great against the blitz in DET. Will the Rams follow suit and squeeze him in the pocket and outguess HC Kevin O’Connell? I’m not sure. My podcast host is all in on the Rams, but I just don’t believe in them. McVay can certainly outsmart his protege, and it should be a close game. I just think MIN will win this game, Cover -1.5, Total Under 47.

I can’t believe I took all favorites here to win outright. The upsets will happen, but good luck picking which one. Buckle up.

Wegs