NFL: Recap Week 17/Week 18 Matchups

The NFL is in its final regular season week with several games that matter. Let’s recap Week 17 and jump into the Playoff Scenarios.

Recap Week 17

• Chiefs Are Back – Well, it took nearly the entire season, but in back-to-back weeks the Chiefs have won and covered at margin. Just another day at the office for Mahomes, 320 yards passing, 3 TDs. The 29-10 win solidified the 1 Seed yet again for the Chiefs who have been hosting the AFC Title game for years all except the 2023 playoffs.
• Ravens Crush HOU – I saw this game wrong, as the Texans even at home were no match for the motivated Ravens. RB Derrick Henry destroyed the HOU frontline with 147 yards, 1 TD in the 31-2 throttling with the PIT loss gives the Ravens the AFC North with a win in Week 18.
• Bengals Avoid Disaster – What a wild game on Saturday – the Bengals D could not stop DEN in the 2nd half who scored 2 TDs on 3 drives, which the end of the game decisions baffled me. With the game tied in the final minutes, CIN’s RB Chase Brown slide down at the 1 yard line on purpose, but he came up hurt (high ankle sprain). DEN got to keep their final TO, and instead of running a play and burning a TO, CIN opted to run it in giving the ball back to DEN with 1:29 left in the game. Well, CIN did force a 4th down at their own 25 yard line, but QB Bo Nix hit WR Marvin Mims on a TD to tie the game in just 1:21. Then, in OT, the Bengals punted their first possession, finally stopped DEN for once, but missed a chipshot FG to win the game – luckily the forced another punt and actually scored a TD to win the game with just 1:10 remaining in the OT, 30-24. The Bengals are still alive in the playoff hunt.
• Vikings Hold Off Packers – The Pack came in riding high playing outside the NFC North, but for some reason, the Vikes (and Lions) have their number this year. QB Sam Darnold was really good again with 377 yards passing, 3 TDs and 1 INT, and the Vikings had a 27-10 lead going into the 4th. Leave it to the Pack to make a bettor interested, as they scored 2 TDs in the final 6:12 of the game. However, they could not get the last stop to get the ball back, and MIN won, 27-25. The Vikings will be playing for the 1 Seed next week.
• Commanders Play With Fire – The Falcons were on fire in the 1st half with 2 rushing TDs from RB Bijan Robinson, and ATL led 17-7 at the half. The issue is the Commanders are a 2nd half team. Jayden Daniels led 2 TD drives to grab the lead, then a FG seemed to put the game in hand with 4:35 remaining. Give the other rookie QB, Michael Penix, Jr. credit for leading a game tying drive hitting TE Kyle Pitts on 4th and Goal from the 13 yard line. ATL even had a chance to win the game in regulation, but they missed a 56 yard FG at the buzzer for OT. Daniels took the opening drive for a GW TD that qualifies WAS for the first time since 2020 with the 30-24 win. ATL lost control of their own destiny in the playoff race.

Predictions: S/U 4-1, ATS 2-3, Totals 4-1 – Tough week on the spreads, as WAS and GB mucked that up mostly.

Playoff Scenarios

AFC

• 1 Seed – Chiefs have locked up home field advantage (15-1) and AFC West – result against DEN does not matter
• 2 Seed – Bills have locked up the 2 Seed (13-3) and the AFC East – result against NE does not matter
• 3 Seed – Ravens lock up AFC North with a win vs. CLE, but PIT would win the division with a BAL loss and PIT win vs. CIN
• 4 Seed – Texans have won the AFC South – result against TEN does not matter
• 5 Seed – Steelers have qualified, but can fall to the 6 Seed with a loss to CIN and win by LAC – can ascend to the 3 Seed with a win over CIN and BAL loss to CLE
• 6 Seed – Chargers have qualified, but can ascend to 5 Seed with a win at LVR and PIT loss vs. CIN – otherwise locked at 6 Seed if PIT wins
• 7 Seed – Broncos currently in this seed, but need a win vs. Chiefs to qualify or loses by MIA and CIN – Dolphins get 7 Seed with a win at NYJ and loss by DEN – Bengals get 7 Seed with a win at PIT plus losses by DEN vs. KC and MIA at NYJ

NFC

• 1 Seed – Lions get the win at SF after trailing early. So, if the Lions win at home against MIN, they get the 1 Seed, if they lose, they drop to the 5 Seed – on the flip side, MIN wins at DET, then they are the 1 Seed and DET falls to the 5 Seed.
• 2 Seed – Eagles are locked into the 2 Seed – result against vs. NYG does not matter
• 3 Seed – Rams have qualified and won the NFC West, but they can drop to the 4 Seed with a loss vs SEA and win by TB vs. NO
• 4 Seed – Bucs need to win vs. NO to win the NFC South (again), but they can also win the division an ATL loss vs. CAR – Bucs can ascend to the 3 Seed with a win and LAR loss vs. SEA – ATL can still win the division with a win vs. CAR and TB loss vs. NO
• 5 Seed – Vikings are tied for the 2nd best record in the league, but need to win at DET to get the 1 Seed otherwise, if they lose, the stay in the 5 Seed and will play on the road. Quite a big game on SNF.
• 6 Seed – Commanders have qualified, but they can drop to the 7 Seed with a loss at DAL and a GB win vs. CHI
• 7 Seed – Packers have qualified, and they can ascend to the 6 Seed with a win vs. CHI and WAS loss at DAL

Actually, not as complicated as some years, as the NFC Teams are locked just the seeding is in question, and in the AFC, only 3 teams are vying for the 7 Seed and some minor movement amongst Wild Card teams and the AFC North title.

Wegs Index After Week 17

Philly is back on top after an impressive win over DAL.

Key Matchups in Week 18

• Bengals at Steelers (+1.5, 48.5 Total) – Saturday, 1/4 at 7 PM Central – The Bengals need to win and get some help. The Steelers have a shot at the division, but BAL will likely take care of the Browns earlier on Saturday. So, I like the Bengals to win this one again, Cover -1.5, Total Over 48.5. It should be an entertaining game.
• Saints at Bucs (-13, 43.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/5 at 12 Noon Central – Simple plan, Bucs win and they are in – win the NFC South. I think they will do that against the depleted Saints. It is a big number to lay here, but the TB O has been white hot for weeks. TB wins, Covers -13, Total Over 43.5.
• Panthers at Falcons (-8.5, 48 Total) – Sunday, 1/5 at 12 Noon Central – The Falcons are behind the 8 ball here. They need to win and watch the scoreboard with TB. CAR has been playing better mostly, but they were pummeled by TB this past weekend. I think they can make it interesting in this one, but ATL wins, CAR Covers +8.5, Total Over 48.
• Dolphins at Jets (+1.5, 39.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/5 at 3:25 PM Central – Regardless of the Bengals results, the Fins need to win. The line seems like they expect QB Tua Tagovailoa not to play again, so can Tyler Huntley do it again on the road to give them a shot? Not sure if Rodgers will start for the Jets, but Tyrod Taylor may actually be an upgrade at this point. I think the Jets will spoil the party for the Fins here and Win, Cover +1.5, Total Over 39.5.
• Chiefs at Broncos (-10, 39 Total) – Sunday, 1/5 at 3:25 PM Central – The Broncos are in a win and get in scenario, and the Chiefs really can’t improve their seeding any more. QB Patrick Mahomes will not start, which is a big part of the handicap, however if the KC D does not rest their guys, then this could still be a game. DEN -10 seems a little high for me, but we will see. DEN wins, KC +10, Total Under 39.
• Vikings at Lions (-2.5, 56.5 Total) – Sunday, 1/5 at 7:20 PM Central – The NFC North and 1 Seed in the NFC is on the line in this SNF matchup. DET’s D has been awful giving up 30 points to everyone (except the Bears). So, the Total already went up 4 points overnight. MIN should win this game, so I’m taking MIN to win, Cover +2.5 and Over 56.5. Should be a fun one.

It should be a fun week ahead. Enjoy Week 18.

Wegs