NFL: Recap Week 15/Week 16 Key Matchups

The next two weeks we will have many teams eliminated officially from the playoffs, and we started this week.

Recap Week 15

• Broncos Close Out Colts: IND led early, and they looked to go up big when RB Jonathan Taylor did the unspeakable by dropping the ball prior to crossing the end zone plane. From that point on, IND was outscored 24-0, as the Broncos are primed to make the playoffs with the 31-13 win, while the Colts are one loss from elimination.
• Bills Stay Hot: The rest of the NFL better not allow BUF to make the Super Bowl because when they play indoors, they have erupted. Back to back 40+ point games, and even though the Lions were able to get within a score in this one, the game was never in doubt. BUF won, 48-42, and they have their sights set on the 1 Seed if KC stumbles down the stretch.
• Eagles Big Boy PIT: Give the Steelers credit for limiting RB Saquon Barkley to 65 yards rushing, but QB Jalen Hurts was game with 290 yards, 2 TDs, plus 45 yards and 1 TD on the ground in the dominant, 27-13 win. The Eagles have now set a franchise record 10th straight win. DE TJ Watt got dinged up for the Steelers, so watch that this week.
• Bucs Keep Up the Streak: TB since their Bye Week in Week 11 have been lights out on Offense. They put up 40 points this time at the Chargers who actually led at half. However, TB blanked them and put up 27 to win going away, 40-17.
• Pack Win Again: The Pack have lost 4 times this season to PHI (2 losses), DET (2 losses – twice) and MIN (2 losses). This team beats up on everyone else, and on SNF, it was no different. The D knocked out QB Geno Smith and recorded 7 sacks in the big 30-13 win.

Predictions: S/U 4-0, ATS 3-1, Totals 3-1 – Another really good week. PIT couldn’t get the cover and SEA couldn’t score enough to get over that total for a perfect week.

Wegs Index After Week 15

Week 16 Matchups

• Broncos at Chargers (-3, 42 Total) – Thursday, 12/19 at 7:15 PM Central on Amazon – If DEN wins, they are essentially in the playoffs, so that plays a big factor. LAC has struggled of late, and still can slip out of the hunt with losses down the stretch. So, in a lot of ways, the Chargers need this game more. Still, I’m not loving the trend the Chargers are on of late. DEN is much better at home, and QB Bo Nix plays better in front, so if the Chargers can get up early, maybe they have a shot. I like DEN in this game to win outright and Cover +3 (I’ve seen +2.5 hit, so if you like DEN bet it now). Total will go Over 42.
• Texans at Chiefs (-3.5, 41.5 Total)* – Saturday, 12/21 at 12 Noon Central on NBC – This number opened closer to +2 or +2.5 for the Chiefs. The main issue here is the Patrick Mahome*s ankle injury. HOU’s D is really good, so if Wentz starts, this number will go even more towards the Texans. Normally, a QB injury moves the needle too much to take the other side. *-Update – Mahomes has practiced this week. So, he is set to start now. The line has moved from as high as +2.5 to -3.5 for the Chiefs. Total has gone up to 41.5 – I would change my prediction to KC wins, but HOU covers +3.5. Total still Under 41.5.
• Steelers at Ravens (-6.5, 44.5 Total) – Saturday, 12/21 at 3:30 PM Central on FOX – I heard a crazy stat today about when TJ Watt misses games. PIT is 1-10 straight up when he misses games. Now, that does not speak to the spread, but BAL has an outside chance at the division still. Even if Watt does play, he will not be 100%. Plus, I did not like the Steeler’s O without Pickens on the field. They had zero big plays at PHI. I bet PIT early in the week at +6.5 and this rivalry plays between 3 points more often than not. However, I do not like this short week without Watt, and the Ravens have revenge on their mind. I like BAL to win, Cover -6.5 (against my early bet), Total Over 44.5 this time. The Steelers played their best game last time and nearly lost, so this one will be a lot different.
• Eagles at Commanders (+3.5, 45.5 Total) – Sunday, 12/22 at Noon Central on FOX – Can anyone beat the Eagles? Not sure yet. They found balance in a tough game at home against PIT last week. They should be able to run on WAS, but still that hook is staring me in the face right now. Here is how this is going to go – WAS scores like 14 points in the first half with a lead at the half, but PHI just grinds in the 2nd half. I do think the Birds continue their record-breaking win streak here, but Jayden Daniels will find a way to get in the backdoor to Cover +3.5. Total Under 45.5. PHI just shortens the game too much to hit big totals this year.
• Vikings at Seahawks (+2.5, 42 Total) – Sunday, 12/22 at 3:05 PM Central on FOX – Big playoff implications in this rare 5th previewed game. The Seahawks are now not favored to win the division and the Vikes can still grab the 1 seed. SEA needs this win more than MIN, though. Another NFC loss could doom their hopes for the playoffs. SEA did not step up well in class last week against the Pack, and QB Geno Smith may be ok with his knee, but that may not allow him to play his best against that blitz-happy team from the North. I think MIN will lose at some point, but not at SEA, the Smith injury aside, I do not like to bet against NFC North teams outside of the Bears when they play outside the division. MIN wins, Cover -2.5, Total Over 42.

All these games have playoff implications. Enjoy.

Wegs